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000
FXUS61 KRLX 261046
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
646 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front brings scattered showers tonight into Saturday.
A warming trend starts today and lasts through Monday. Hot
temperatures expected Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 645 AM Friday...

Forecast on track.

As of 330 AM Friday...

After a frosty start for some valley locations, a warming trend
ensues today, as southeast downslope flow develops and increases
on the back side of high pressure exiting to the east, and
ahead of a warm front approaching from the southwest. This flow
increases a bit further tonight, especially on ridge /and not
so much in better protected valleys/ as warm advection flow
aloft backs to the southwest and increases. This warm advection
flow, along with vanishing h85-h7 condensation pressure
deficits, spell increasing clouds tonight, with showers becoming
possible, especially overnight.

Stratus in the southeast flow was reaching southeast edges of
the forecast area this morning along southeast facing slopes,
and will make slightly better inroads there late tonight.

Temperatures will be a bit above normal for highs today and lows
tonight, even with a forecast a bit below central guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Friday...

A warm front is scheduled to slide across the forecast area on
Saturday allowing for warmer air to infiltrate the region in its
wake. High temperatures in the lower 80s will be common across
portions of the lowlands as a result, with 50s, 60s and even some
70s in the mountains. Dew points will be in the 40s and 50s, so it
will feel quite comfortable, maybe even on the drier side, as
opposed to an oppressive mugginess.

Lingering moisture will allow for mostly cloudy skies through the
day and there is the chance for a shower or thunderstorm early,
particularly across the northern lowlands and the northern
mountains. Chances will decrease fairly quickly by afternoon as the
warm front pushes off to the north.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 AM Friday...

Warming trend will continue Sunday and Monday as an azores high
offshore from the eastern CONUS will allow for summerlike
temperatures, hot temperatures expected Sunday and Monday.
Monday looks to be the hottest day with highs in the upper 80s
to near 90 across portions of the lowlands, approaching near-
record values across portions of the mountains and northern
lowlands. This period will also be marked by dry weather thanks
to proximity of high pressure.

RH percentages look to be drier on both Sunday and Monday
afternoons, with in the 30s expected across the lowlands. Winds
will be relatively light though, so fire weather concerns
remain low.

A cold front is still projected to approach from the west sometime
late Monday bringing with it a chance for rain and an isolated
thunderstorm or two. Chance PoPs will gradually increase from west
to east late Monday afternoon into the night, with likely PoPs
arriving very early Tuesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 645 AM Friday...

High pressure east of the area continues VFR conditions for
much if not all of the TAF period, through 12Z Saturday. There
may be afternoon cumulus in the mountains. Stratus or low
stratocumulus may once again develop along the spine of the
Appalachians tonight. This time, MVFR stratocu may reach BKW
late.

Otherwise, patchy mid and high cloud today will lower to high
stratocu tonight, with isolated to scattered showers, as a warm
front approaches from the southwest. The best chance for a
shower is during the predawn hours north, where a rumble of
thunder is not entirely out of the question.

Light northeast to southeast surface flow early this morning
will become light southeast this morning, and then strengthen
and become gusty late this morning through tonight, into the
15-20 kt range. Gusty southeast flow at BKW to around 20 kts today,
increases to around 25 kts tonight. Light south flow aloft today will
become light to moderate south to southwest tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: gusty winds, including timing of onset, may
vary. Timing of onset of MVFR ceilings in the mountains tonight
may also vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               FRI 04/26/24
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
Patchy IFR possible along the mountains early Saturday with
stratus.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>086.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/LTC
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...TRM