Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
963 FXUS66 KSGX 141622 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 922 AM PDT Tue May 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... For the next week, night and morning coastal low clouds will extend well inland across most of the valleys with limited or slow afternoon clearing near the beaches. A weak upper level low pressure system moving inland through southern California will bring a slight chance of light showers for the San Bernardino Mountains for late Wednesday. Slow cooling will continue for the coast and valleys through Wednesday. Then warmer for most areas for Thursday through Saturday, warming to 4 to 8 degrees above average for the deserts and remaining a few degrees below average for inland coastal areas. Then slowly cooler for Sunday through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Update... The 12z Miramar sounding showed an inversion based near 2200 feet and saturation as low as 1500 feet. Low clouds are quickly diminishing across inland San Diego County and more slowly across the Inland Empire, but hanging steady across Orange County. Most inland areas should see sunshine by late morning or early afternoon, but passing clouds could remain at the immediate coast. Highs today will be 2-5 degrees below normal across the coast and valleys, and 2-4 degrees above normal in the mountains and deserts. Highs will reach the mid-60s to low-70s across the coast, valleys and mountains, the upper-70s in the Inland Empire, the mid-80s in the High Desert and upper-90s in the lower deserts. Previous Discussion (Issued 419 AM PDT Tue May 14 2024)... .SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)... The marine layer will remain around 2500 to 3000 feet deep for the next week. Night and morning coastal low clouds will extend well inland across most of the valleys with limited or slow afternoon clearing near the beaches. A weak upper level low pressure system will move inland through southern California and northern Baja for tonight and Wednesday. Some mid level moisture could be drawn into portions of San Bernardino County from the northeast during the late afternoon and early evening. There could be some virga or light showers with the most likely location for any light measurable amounts over the San Bernardino Mountains. The slow cooling trend for the coast and valleys will continue through Wednesday with Wednesday high temperatures around 5 degrees above average for the deserts and as much as 5 to 10 degrees below average for the valleys. A slow warming trend will begin on Thursday. && .LONG TERM (Friday through Monday)... The slow warming trend will continue through Saturday with Saturday high temperatures for the deserts around 4 to 8 degrees above average with inland coastal areas remaining a few degrees below average. This warming will be followed by slow cooling for Sunday through Tuesday with Tuesday high temperatures a few degrees below average for lower elevations to 4 to 8 degrees below average for the valleys. && .AVIATION... 141630Z...Coast/Valleys...Low clouds with bases 1700-2200 ft MSL and tops to 2600 ft MSL will clear in most locations by 18Z, except local BKN clouds will continue near the coast through this afternoon. Most VIS will be unrestricted the rest of today. Stratus will develop along the coast again 00Z-05Z Wed and spread inland through most valleys 03Z-08Z Wed, with most valleys with bases 1600- 2000 ft MSL and tops to 2600 ft MSL, with slow clearing Wed morning. Terrain will be locally obscured by clouds, but only local VIS 2-4 miles will occur below the cloud bases. Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear with unrestricted VIS will prevail through Wed morning, except SCT-BKN cumulus based at 9000 feet MSL over the mountains 18Z today through 02Z Wed. West winds will gust locally 25-35 kt through mountain passes into adjacent desert slopes mainly after 23Z, continuing through 15Z Wed. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Saturday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...EA/17 AVIATION/MARINE...Maxwell