Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
000
FXUS64 KSJT 271039
AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
539 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
The main concern in the short term forecast is the potential for
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in our eastern
counties, with a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible. An
upper level trough is forecast to track across the region today.
Although low level moisture will be lacking across the region, there
will be enough upper level lift from the approaching trough to
generate at least isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon, mainly across the eastern half of the area. The main
concern will be large hail, but strong gusty winds will also be
possible. This activity should quickly exit the region by early
evening. Highs today will be slightly below seasonal normals, in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. With the exit of the through, a weak cold
front will push through the area this evening. Overnight lows will
be below seasonal normals, in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Some colder
readings are possible in low lying areas and river valleys.
Increasing cloud cover in our eastern counties toward daybreak
should keep lows a few degrees warmer compared to our western
counties.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 409 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
A pattern shift is expected to start on Thursday as a broad upper-
level ridge will take over the southern Plains. This should allow
for warm southerly flow to resume at the surface. Highs should
climb up to the upper 70s and low 80s on Thursday and Friday as a
warmer airmass is advected into west Texas. A southwesterly low-
level jet should develop late Thursday night into Friday morning.
As a result, winds on Friday could be 20-30 MPH with stronger
gusts possible, especially at higher elevations.
Looking ahead to Saturday and Sunday, temperatures should push into
the upper 80s to near 90 with otherwise dry conditions as the
mid-level flow becomes quasi-zonal. Models show a deep trough
moving into the Desert Southwest on Monday and into Tuesday, which
could be the next best chance for rain and thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Light south
winds will become southwest by mid to late morning, then west and
increase to 10 to 15 knots, with higher gusts, this afternoon.
Winds will quickly diminish this evening. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible at KBBD, so have included a VCTS
mention.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 71 41 73 55 / 20 0 0 0
San Angelo 73 40 77 54 / 10 0 0 0
Junction 74 40 80 52 / 20 0 0 0
Brownwood 69 41 71 51 / 30 10 0 0
Sweetwater 69 40 73 55 / 10 0 0 0
Ozona 71 39 75 51 / 0 0 0 0
Brady 70 41 73 53 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...Daniels