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000
FXUS64 KSJT 201926
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
226 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Showers and storms continue across much of West Central Texas
early this afternoon, with the convection gradually pushing east.
Shortwave helping aid lift is pushing east and should be exiting
the area this evening so much of the rain should end before
midnight even across the eastern areas. Dry conditions for late
tonight into Sunday, although temperatures will remain below
normal with highs remaining in the 60s tomorrow.

Have seen multiple reports of small hail with the convection,
along with rainfall totals in the 1-2 inch range. Can not rule out
a stray storm pulsing up near severe levels, but with activity is
so widespread and cool temperatures limiting CAPE values, really
does look like it will end up being a mostly small hail and
pockets of rainfall heavy enough to cause street and creek
flooding more than anything else.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Cold temperatures are forecast Monday morning, with overnight lows in
the low to mid 40s. A pleasant day is forecast on Monday with highs
topping out in the low to mid 70s. Expect a steady warm up through
the week, with highs on Tuesday through Thursday into the 80s, and
highs Friday into the weekend in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

An upper level trough is forecast to track across the northern
Plains Tuesday, sending a cold front south to near the Red River by
Wednesday morning. This front may be the focus for shower and
thunderstorms activity, but is forecast to generally remain north of
our area. For now, have kept some slight chance PoPs across the
northern Big Country on Wednesday. The next upper level trough is
forecast to track across the Desert Southwest Wednesday night into
Thursday morning, then across the Texas Panhandle Thursday night.
This will bring the next chance of showers and thunderstorms to the
region, Thursday into Friday. Given the uncertainty this far out,
PoPs were kept in the slight chance to chance category. The next
upper level trough is forecast to approach the region next weekend,
which could bring our next chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Thunderstorms continue to be widespread near KABI this afternoon,
with more storms developing near KSJT. Both of these sites will
see reduced visibilities and heavy rainfall at times through at
least mid afternoon. Between the storms, fog and drizzle continue
with IFR cigs. Farther south, IFR clouds with a little higher
visibility prevail. Latest CAMs show more shower and storm
development for those locations starting late afternoon and
continuing into the evening hours. For all sites, once the main
area of convection pushes through, still appears fog and drizzle
with IFR cigs will persist through the night and into the morning
hours on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     45  62  41  72 /  50   0   0   0
San Angelo  46  63  42  75 /  50   0   0   0
Junction    49  65  44  75 /  60   0   0   0
Brownwood   46  62  40  71 /  70   0   0   0
Sweetwater  45  60  43  72 /  30  10   0   0
Ozona       48  61  44  71 /  30   0   0   0
Brady       48  61  43  70 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...07