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000
FXUS66 KSTO 192027
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
127 PM PDT Fri Apr 19 2024


.Synopsis...
Warm and dry weather continues into early next week. Locally
breezy at times, especially in the Delta. Cooler temperatures
return by Tuesday as off-shore troughing influences the area.

&&

.Discussion...
Afternoon GOES-18 Satellite analysis reveals mostly clear skies
across interior NorCal. On-shore flow is being observed around
the Delta this afternoon, which is aiding in slight cooling and at
times locally breezy winds, with a recent observation of 18 mph
recorded at Travis AFB. A weak vorticity center has moved inland
over SoCal this afternoon, and should keep most shower chances
south of our area. However, recent SPC Mesoanalysis suggests some
nosing of 500-1000 j/kg of CAPE values to move into the southeast
foothills of the Sierra later this afternoon. Lift and moisture
will be the biggest factors that could inhibit any thunderstorm
development for our area. An isolated thunderstorm, mainly in
Tuolumne county, cannot be completely ruled out this evening.
Some bubbling Cumulus clouds are being observed in Mariposa county
near Wawona, so we will continue to monitor for any development
in our area as we move through the day.

The upper level-ridge will reamplify as we move through the
weekend and into early next week. High temperatures will climb to
10-15 degrees above climatological normal this weekend through
Monday. High temperatures will be mid to upper 80s through the
Central Valley, with mid 60s to mid 70s for the higher elevations.
On Monday, we have an outside chance of breaking 90, as the
National Blend of Models suggests a 10-40% probability of
exceeding 90, mainly along the I-5 corridor from Arbuckle to
Orland having the highest chances. HeatRisk remains in the Minor
category during this period for interior NorCal.

Wood

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)...

Conditions will begin to cool as a shortwave trough begins to
slide over Northern California, as low pressure systems move into
the Pacific NW and a secondary system off the far Southern
California coast. By Wednesday, precipitation chances return to
the mountains Wednesday with greater chances Thursday through
Friday afternoon (20-40%). Storm totals continue to be light with
minimal travel impacts expected if any. High temperatures return
to slightly below normal Wednesday into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions over interior NorCal next 24 hrs. Surface wind
mainly below 12 kts except vicinity of Delta SWly sustained wind
up to 15-20 kts.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$