Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 250903
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
503 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...
Issued at 435 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Other than a some high clouds and a few low clouds over the
interior, it is a fairly quiet morning across the Sunshine State.
Synoptically, ridge of high pressure aloft at the surface remains in
control over the area, while upper low moves into the Plains. As a
result, tight gradient remains and breezy easterly winds prevail
across the Peninsula through portions of today. This flow will also
keep the warmest afternoon highs along the west coast of Florida,
which should only get to the mid 80s with the rest of the area
staying around 80 degrees. However, dewpoints are expected to be
between 50 to 60 degree, so conditions will feel very comfortable.

Then, gradient relaxes and winds become southerly through Tuesday.
Unfortunately, this shift will allow a slight increase in moisture
and temperatures warm up area-wide to the upper 80s. Still, it
should feel acceptable for this time of the year.

&&

.LONG TERM (WED-SUN)...
Issued at 435 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

On Wednesday, things get more interesting as large, broad area of
low pressure deepens into the south pushing the frontal boundary
associated with it across the state through Thursday. Though there
is still some time to go, model guidance is in fairly good agreement
for all of the ingredients to line up and for most of the CWA to
receive rain, and the potential for some strong storms.
PWs are forecast to increase up to 1.70 in., and upper level support
seems to align with this surge late on Wednesday. If this
materializes, the main concerns would be strong winds and heavy rain
but it remains to be seen.

Behind the fropa, high pressure builds pushing cooler and drier
conditions for the rest of the period. Morning lows on Friday could
drop over 10 degrees in some locations ranging from the upper 40s
north to the 50s south. The coolest night should be Friday into
Saturday with cooler temps spreading south. A gradual warm up in
anticipated thereafter with afternoon highs getting back into the
80s. It will be the perfect weather to enjoy the outdoors.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

VFR conditions prevailing through the period. Periods of gusty east
to southeasterly winds remain in place with two surges, one  during
the late morning and afternoon and another overnight. Otherwise, no
other concerns.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

High pressure continues to dominate over the Gulf water, and the
interaction with an upper level low to west will keep the
pressure gradient tight, resulting in periods of gusty east to
southeasterly winds through early on Tuesday. The current Small
Craft Advisory was extended to reflect the threat. However, winds
throughout the daytime hours are expected to diminish to around 15
knots, but should increase to near 20 knots during this time.
Then, approaching trough moves into the area Wednesday into
Thursday morning, bringing some showers and isolated thunderstorms
with it. Winds shift to the northwest and increase to around 20
knots behind the front by Thursday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

High pressure should keep warm and rain free conditions through
Tuesday across fire districts. Breezy easterly winds become
southerly ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Rain and
storm chances increase through Wednesday and continue into early
Thursday as the front moves over the area. Cooler and critically dry
conditions are forecast for the end of the period. Northerly winds
should prevail then but are expected to remain below criteria at
this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  83  65  85  70 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  84  65  85  67 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  81  61  86  66 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  86  65  86  68 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  84  59  87  64 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  81  67  82  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for Coastal waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to
     60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Delerme
DECISION SUPPORT...Close


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