319
FXXX10 KWNP 280031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Apr 28 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 28-Apr 30 2024 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 28-Apr 30 2024

             Apr 28       Apr 29       Apr 30
00-03UT       3.67         2.67         2.33
03-06UT       3.33         2.00         2.67
06-09UT       3.33         2.33         2.00
09-12UT       3.67         2.67         2.00
12-15UT       3.00         2.33         1.67
15-18UT       2.67         2.33         1.67
18-21UT       2.00         2.33         2.67
21-00UT       2.00         2.67         1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 28-Apr 30 2024

              Apr 28  Apr 29  Apr 30
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 27 2024 1235 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 28-Apr 30 2024

              Apr 28        Apr 29        Apr 30
R1-R2           35%           35%           35%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
are expected over the next three days.