Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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399 FXUS64 KTSA 101658 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1158 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1034 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Current forecast for today is on track with only a few minor adjustments made to better reflect current trends. && .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 341 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Seasonably pleasant weather will transpire across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas today. Latest GOES-16 water vapor satellite imagery shows a mid/upper-level cutoff low swirling over the Great Basin region early this morning. Short-range model guidance indicates shortwave ridging developing upstream over the Southern/Central Plains later this morning. At the surface, high pressure will continue building into the region, keeping a light to moderate northerly breeze in place. As such, anticipate a seasonably warm day, under mostly sunny skies, with highs ranging from the mid-upper 70s. A few locations in the Arkansas River Valley and near the Red River may reach the lower 80s. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 341 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Mid/upper-level ridging ahead of a cutoff low, positioned over the Great Basin, will continue to provide pleasant, dry, and mild weather tonight and again on Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase again beginning on Sunday morning as the cutoff low begins to slide over the Plains. The slow progression of the low will cause precipitation chances to linger into Tuesday morning or afternoon, with drier conditions by Tuesday evening. The bulk of the precipitation is expected to fall between late Sunday night through early Monday evening. As far as severe thunderstorm potential is concerned, latest medium- range model guidance indicates the best support and instability will mostly stay south of the Red River, with limited instability across much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through Monday night. Therefore, the overall chance for organized severe weather seems to be on the low side at this time. However, still cannot completely rule out a chance for a few severe thunderstorms, especially on Monday afternoon along and near the Red River, when instability maximizes and lapse rates are steepest. A bigger and more widespread threat will be moderate to heavy rainfall. With recent heavy rainfall over the past couple of weeks, flooding and flash flooding could certainly become a concern. Another mid/upper-level trough will move across the Rockies and over the Plains on Wednesday and/or Thursday, bringing another chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms to the region ahead of an approaching cold front forecast to push through the area on Thursday. With several discrepancies still occurring in deterministic models and ensembles with regards to timing and evolution, details of this storm system are still uncertain at the moment. Mejia && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the valid period at all area TAF sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 79 56 82 59 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 81 55 82 58 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 80 55 82 58 / 0 0 0 10 BVO 79 51 82 56 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 77 52 78 55 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 75 52 77 55 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 77 54 80 58 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 77 52 79 56 / 0 0 0 0 F10 77 55 80 58 / 0 0 0 10 HHW 80 55 80 60 / 0 0 0 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...10