Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 230907
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
206 AM MST Sat Mar 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and warm today. A storm system will then move across
the area late tonight through Tuesday of next week, resulting in
much cooler temperatures, strong gusty winds and a chance of valley
rain and mountain snow. Breezy southwest winds this afternoon ahead
of the system and then windy conditions especially east of Tucson on
Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure aloft continues to flatten out and shift
east of the area in advance of a storm system that will move across
the area tonight into next Tuesday. Breezy southwest winds are
expected across southeast Arizona today in advance of this system.
While wind speeds/RH values exceed critical fire weather thresholds,
fire danger levels remain in the low to moderate categories due to
above normal precipitation and no Fire Weather Watches and/or Red
Flag Warnings will be issued. Winds speeds are expected to remain
below wind advisory levels for most of the area today, although an
isolated locale or two may briefly reach criteria. However, wind
speeds exceeding advisory levels looks likely on Sunday, especially
to the east of Tucson and have issued a wind advisory for those
locations. The advisory will be in effect from 15Z Sunday through
03Z Monday. Wind speeds in the advisory area will be 25-35 mph with
gusts to around 45 mph. For more information on this product please
refer to PHXNPWTWC. Blowing dust will also be a concern this
afternoon and on Sunday for locations prone to blowing dust, such as
I-10 from Willcox to San Simon and I-10 from Red Rock northward.

As the storm system moves into the area tonight an associated
frontal band sweeps across the forecast area between 06Z-12Z Sunday,
resulting in good chance to likely pops for the eastern two-thirds
of the forecast area. Precipitation amounts along this frontal
boundary will be 0.10"-0.20" in the valleys and up to 0.50" in the
mountains. The main precipitation event continues to be Sunday night
into Monday as a stronger disturbance rounds the base of the trough
across Arizona. High temperatures Sunday will be 15-20 degrees below
normal, with highs only in the mid 50s to mid 60s in the valleys.
Similar temperatures are expected Monday. Storm total rainfall in
the valleys will generally be 0.20"-0.35" (locally up to 0.50") and
0.50"-1.25" in the mountains. Snow levels will lower to 5k ft by
Sunday morning and remain at that level through the event. Snowfall
totals in the Sky Islands and White Mountains by late Monday will be
4-10 inches, with a few local amounts of up to a foot above 8k ft.

Lingering precipitation chances continue on Tuesday, mainly from
Tucson eastward as the models show a disturbance dropping down the
back side of the exiting system across the eastern half of the
state. High temperature warm up a couple of degrees on Tuesday
(versus Sunday and Monday), but will still be nearly 10 degrees
below normal. Readings then warm to near normal the latter half of
next week, along with a return to dry conditions Wednesday through
Friday. The ensembles and cluster analysis both point to the
potential for yet another system moving across the area next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 24/12Z.
SCT-BKN clouds AOA 20k ft AGL til 24/03Z, then BKN-OVC clouds at 5k-
8k ft AGL thru the end of the valid period. Aft 24/06Z, SCT-NMRS
valley -SHRA/mountain -SHSN. SFC wind less than 12 kts thru 23/16Z,
then increasing SFC wind and SWLY wind at 15-22 kts with gusts 25-32
kts from 23/19Z thru end of the forecast period. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and dry conditions are expected across
southeast Arizona today, with high temperatures 2-4 degrees above
normal and minimum RHs in the 8-15 percent range in the valleys. A
storm system will move into the region late tonight through Tuesday
of next week, resulting in strong and gusty winds, much cooler
temperatures, precipitation chances and higher relative humidity
values. High temperatures lower to 15-20 degrees below normal on
Sunday and Monday, before warming back to near normal the latter
half of next week. 20-foot winds will be southwest at 20-25 mph and
gusts to around 35 mph today, with even stronger winds expected on
Sunday, especially to the east of Tucson. While min RH values today
will be at or below critical thresholds and wind speeds exceed
critical thresholds, fire danger levels are currently in the low to
moderate category, so no Fire Weather Watches and/or Red Flag
Warnings are anticipated at this time. Min RH values increase to
well above critical thresholds on Sunday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ507>514.

&&

$$

Zell

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