Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
318 FXUS65 KTWC 110803 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 103 AM MST Sat May 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Warm, dry, and breezy conditions continue through the weekend. Daily high temperatures will be near normal through the weekend, then several degrees above normal next week. && .DISCUSSION...A quiet, warm weather pattern will persist for Southeast Arizona over the next week. An upper low positioned over extreme northwest Arizona this morning shift east today, then east of the Southern Rockies Sunday. The trough axis along the southern periphery of this feature will tighten gradients today, resulting in locally breezy conditions today. Given how dry the airmass remains across our neck of the woods, expect brief periods of near critical fire weather conditions...especially along the Arizona/New Mexico border this afternoon. As we move into early next week, a shortwave ridge will fill in behind the departed upper low, with another dry upper low developing along the southern California coast Monday. This feature will eventually track across the Desert Southwest the middle of next week and phase with an upper trough digging S/SSW into the Great Basin along the eastern periphery of an upper high along the Pacific Northwest. Although the airmass across the area will continue to remain dry, there may be enough mid-level moisture to result in a slight chance of elevated mainly dry showers Wednesday near the White Mountains. Looking ahead, expect another warm-up as a more amplified ridge moves into the area from the west as the aforementioned feature tracks east. Still low confidence on the strength of the ridging, but it may be enough to warm the valleys into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees next weekend. The NBM probabilities for KTUS to meet or exceed the century mark is 20% on Saturday 5/18 and 31% on Sunday 5/19. Its always unpleasant to transition from warm to hot, but certain things are inevitable. Ugh. && .AVIATION...Valid through 12/12Z. Skies SKC thru the valid forecast period. SFC winds will remain below 10 kts this morning, then become breezy with westerly to northwesterly winds 13-18 kts with gusts 25-30 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Afternoon temperatures near to slightly above normal will persist into next week. Min RH values will remain in the single digits in the valleys, with values generally in the teens for the mountains. Expect breezy west to northwest winds 15-20 mph today with gusts to 25-30 mph. These winds combined with already low relative humidity in place may result in brief near critical fire weather conditions. Otherwise, typical afternoon breeziness will persist into next week each afternoon due to daytime heating with winds becoming light and variable overnight. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson