Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 252144
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
344 PM MDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The week ahead looks to remain active as several storms sweep
across the central Rockies. One system is moving across northern
New Mexico this evening, with strong winds and a few mountain
showers. A weaker system moves across the central Rockies Thursday
and will bring gusty winds to the area. A stronger storm system will
move through the area on Friday and Saturday. This will bring
much stronger winds to the Borderland, along with blowing dust and
some mountain showers. Sunday will begin a stretch of quieter
weather as storms move further north. Temperatures will remain
above normal through Friday and then cool below normal for the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Pacific storm system moving across northern New Mexico is
producing strong winds across the Borderland this afternoon. Winds
most areas into Advisory category but falling a little short of
warning criteria. Will leave all advisories/warnings out as
scheduled though. Few showers still possible this evening over the
mountains before surface front passes to the east. Satellite
imagery is showing considerable lenticular cloud growth slowly
dissipating and more cumulus development over the northern zones.
Upper low exits area late tonight and should leave behind a
quieter Wednesday. Afternoon winds look to be breezy at worst.
Temps will fall to near normal behind the front.

Week remains pretty active after Wednesday as storms continue to
pass not too far to our north. A weak trough aloft moves through
Thursday. Looks too far north for precip but winds will pick up
again, likely into windy category, though could border on advisory
criteria.

Complex upper low develops and drops down over the central Rockies
Friday. This will bring much stronger winds to the area, likely
into advisory or low end warning criteria. Showers could develop
over the mountains in the afternoon. Cold advection aloft could
provide enough instability for a few thunderstorms. Surface front
could also produce a few showers further south over the lowlands
toward evening. Low slow to move out, being only over the Texas
Panhandle Saturday evening, so Saturday looks like a repeat of
Friday, though not as windy. Snow levels fall Friday to around
8000 ft over the Gila, and then to around 7000 ft Saturday over
the Sacs. Areas like Cloudcroft could receive a couple inches of
snow by Sunday morning.

Sunday begins a stretch of somewhat quieter weather. Pattern still
progressive but storms sweep across further north. Afternoons
look breezy at best, and temperatures return to well above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 26/00Z-27/00Z...
A few light rain showers possible over the Sacramento Mountains with
SCT-BKN040-060 through 03Z...otherwise expect SKC-SCT250 across the
region.  Gusty W winds of 25-35G50KTS expected to slowly decrease to
10-20G30KTS through the overnight hours and become northwest by 12Z.
Northwest winds will gradually shift back to the west around 18Z and
remain in the 10-20G30KT range.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR ALL AREAS...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT THURSDAY FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS...

Breezy to windy conditions will continue through the next 5-7 days
with the strongest winds coming on Friday but relative humidities
will be marginal this day for critical conditions. An upper low will
be moving across the Rockies Friday night and Saturday which will
bring precipitation to the region and possibly snow in the
Sacramento mountains. There is a good chance for critical conditions
developing on Thursday however. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect
for Thursday afternoon and evening.  Dry northwest flow will
redevelop behind this system with temperatures rebounding early next
week.  While breezy conditions will continue, winds look to remain
just below critical speeds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 62  81  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           58  80  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              51  79  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              52  78  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              33  53  37  62 /  10   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   51  79  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             46  68  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  48  80  48  85 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               48  78  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      60  80  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               52  80  49  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            59  83  55  91 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              55  73  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  60  82  57  90 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            56  80  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          57  79  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           47  79  47  85 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   48  82  48  87 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                55  80  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               56  81  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 41  63  41  73 /  10   0   0   0
Mescalero               39  62  40  71 /  10   0   0   0
Timberon                39  61  39  69 /  10   0   0   0
Winston                 38  70  38  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               44  77  45  81 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               46  80  46  86 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            35  74  32  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  43  71  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   37  74  41  82 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              37  73  39  78 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 46  77  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  48  81  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 47  80  46  84 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          49  81  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              48  75  48  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Blowing Dust Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ404-405-
     407-410-411-413.

     High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ405>407-
     409>417.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ111-112.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for NMZ110>112.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ402>404-408.

TX...Blowing Dust Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for TXZ418>420-
     423.

     High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for TXZ418>420-422.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for TXZ055-056.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for TXZ055-056.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for TXZ421-423-424.

&&

$$

Hefner/Grzywacz



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.