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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 310922
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
322 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
YOUR LABOR DAY SUNDAY WILL BE A HOT AND DRY ONE AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. KEEPS DRY AIR OVER THE REGION.
THESE SAME CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY
LONGER. DESERT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY REACH 100 DEGREES. AFTER WEDNESDAY A BIT OF MOISTURE BEGINS TO
SLOWLY CREEP BACK IN OVER FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOONS...AND A RETURN
OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEATHER MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT OVER THESE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THE OUTLOOK STAYING PRETTY MUCH THE SAME. FOR THE FIRST
SEVERAL DAYS...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WE ARE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT AND A VERY DRY AND WARM AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. MINIMAL MOISTURE...LOW DEWPOINTS AND PW`S...COMBINED WITH A
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP THE REGION
QUITE STABLE AND THUS RAIN AND STORM FREE. WE EXPECT A LOT OF
CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. WE COULD SEE SOME 100 DEGREE
READINGS...BUT MOST DESERT LOCATIONS WILL TOP OUT IN THE M-U90S.
THIS AFTERNOONS COULD APPROACH BREEZY AS A PASSING UPPER TROUGH TO
OUR NORTH INDUCES A BIT OF A LEE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS TO OUR
EAST AND INCREASES WEST WINDS INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON.

SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BEGIN WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE TO END THE WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
CWFA WILL BEGIN TO SLIP EAST. THIS ALLOWS BOTH TX GULF AND MEXICO
MONSOON MOISTURE TO EBB INTO THE REGION ON SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES TO THE EAST AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES TO THE WEST. THE LATEST MODELS ARE A
BIT LESS BULLISH ON THE MOISTURE INCREASE...AND THAT SAME MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS SLOWER TO ARRIVE. THIS MEANS THAT WEDNESDAY MAY BE
MORE DRY THAN WET. THUR AND FRI LOOK TO HAVE A BIT BETTER STORM
CHANCES. WEDNESDAY LOOKS MORE LIKE A MOUNTAIN STORM AFTERNOON WITH
VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL OVER THE LOWLANDS. AS THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION MENTIONED...THE GFS MODEL TENDS TO FOCUS THE MOISTURE
TO OUR WEST...KEEPING THE EASTERN ZONES MOSTLY DRY. THE ECMWF
MODEL STILL KEEPS THE MOISTURE FAIRLY WELL EVENING DISTRIBUTED
ACROSS THE CWFA FOR EQUAL PCPN CHANCES FOR MOST ZONES.

TEMPS LOOK TO STAY QUITE WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DROPPING BACK
NEAR NORMAL THUR-FRI AS MOISTURE...CLOUDS...AND LESSENING HIGH
PRESSURE ALL WORK TO LOWER TEMPS A BIT. BY NEXT WEEKEND THE UPPER
HIGH TO OUR EAST BEGINS TO BUILD BACK WEST DISPLACING THE MOISTURE
WEST OVER AZ AND AGAIN DRYING OUT OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 31/12Z - 01/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS. SKIES MOSTLY SKC THRU 17Z...THEN FEW-SCT100. WINDS
LIGHT S-SW THRU 17Z...THEN SW 10G20KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT A MINOR DISTURBANCE
PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL PRODUCE WESTERLY WINDS IN
THE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY BREEZY RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY THE WARM AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW
MEXICO WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST ALLOWING SOME SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK AND SOMEWHAT BOOST THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MAINLY FOR
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 98  75  99  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           93  67  95  69  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              96  66  97  69  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              96  67  95  68  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              75  51  76  52  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   95  66  95  68  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             89  64  91  64  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  97  64  97  68  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               95  65  96  67  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      98  72  98  73  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               98  68 100  71  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            98  71  99  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              91  71  93  71  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  97  71  97  72  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            96  71  98  70  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          95  67  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           95  64  94  69  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   96  66  97  68  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                94  66  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               96  68  96  70  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 83  57  84  59  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               84  57  85  59  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                84  57  85  60  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 84  59  85  59  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               89  67  91  67  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               94  67  94  68  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            87  59  89  57  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  91  65  93  66  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   93  54  93  54  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              90  52  92  52  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 89  65  91  66  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  93  67  94  67  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 95  66  96  67  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          93  68  94  65  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              90  68  93  68  91 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD




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