Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 252130
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
230 PM MST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
While cool breezes have prevailed today, milder southwesterly
flow will become established Monday allowing for a nice warm up
for a couple of days. Winds will get much stronger Tuesday and
Wednesday as another storm system moves across the area. This
system will not have a lot of moisture to work with, thus only
light precipitation is expected Tuesday night and Wednesday. Temps
will cool briefly behind this system before warming back up above
normal heading into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Broad troughing continues across the lower 48 this afternoon as
the latest in a string of shortwaves tracking through the trough
swings across northern New Mexico. There remains enough of a
gradient to keep the rest of the afternoon a bit brisk as temps
stay slightly below normal despite abundant sunshine.

Temps should get a quick boost starting tomorrow as we transition
from quasi zonal flow in the wake of the departing shortwave to
a deeper southwesterly flow pattern. This shift in the upper flow
is attributed to a strong shortwave trough that will be diving
south along the Pacific coastline and amplifying as it eventually
cuts off somewhere near the central California coast late Monday
afternoon. Where this feature eventually goes from there and how
fast it does so will decide the eventual impact on our region in
the days to follow.

While all the models agree that it will eventually open up and
lift out towards the east and northeast, there are some subtle
disagreements. The NAM continues to track the system further
south and keep the circulation closed the longest. This would
favor at least a slight subtropical tap and possibly enhance total
precipitation. The GFS and ECMWF on the other hand open the
system up and track it through just a tad bit faster. They also
keep the subtropical moisture tap to our south resulting in PW
values at the time of the trough passage at between .25" and .33".

At this time, it seems that a blend of the GFS and ECMWF is the
best solution. Thus we expect to see surface winds ramping up
Tuesday in advance of the approaching system as lee cyclogenesis
gets underway over southeastern Colorado and mid and upper level
winds begin to strengthen. Winds will likely stay just below
advisory criteria with the strongest winds across the
southwestern zones. As the system tracks past, light precip will
be possible from west to east Late Tuesday through about midday
Wednesday. Low QPF values are expected due to limited moisture. As
snow levels drop to around 5000`, possibly an inch or so of snow
could fall in the Gila with some lowland spots west of Rio Grande
possibly seeing a brief rain snow mix before switching to all
light rain Wednesday morning. While precip impacts are expected
to be minimal, impacts from winds will be another story as west
and northwest winds behind the Pacific front will be rather strong
due to tight surface gradients lingering across the region.

In the wake of this trough temps will obviously be a bit cooler.
However the storm track looks to lift north a bit as we wrap up
the week and head into the weekend. This will result in a return
to pleasant conditions with temps warming well above normal to
close out the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 24/00Z-25/00Z...
VFR conditions expected through the period. Generally SKC with
00Z-06Z winds 290-320 10-15KT followed by 360-030 05-10KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
This afternoon was the beginning of a 3-day warming trend with
temperatures near normal. West winds 10-15 mph this evening will
decrease to light terrain-driven winds tonight. Min RH values in the
teens most areas. Temperatures will continue to rebound to above
normal Monday and Tuesday.

Elevated fire risk on Tuesday as above normal temperatures will
combine with RH values below 15%. Winds will be near red flag
criteria especially west of the Rio Grande at 20-25 mph with gusts
up to 30 mph. Moisture moves into the area on Wednesday as a Pacific
cold front allows RH values to recover while still keeping it windy.
A chance for lowland rain showers and mountain snow on Wednesday
will likely be our only chance at precipitation in the forecast
period. The Pacific cold front on Wednesday will bring cooler
temperatures and a chance for lowland rain showers and mountain
snow. Gusty winds are expected along with a recovery in min RH
values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 32  68  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           32  67  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              27  66  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              27  63  38  67 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              24  48  30  49 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   28  62  35  65 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             26  60  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  26  65  33  65 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               26  66  31  64 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      34  66  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               29  70  38  73 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            33  73  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              32  64  40  66 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  29  70  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            30  66  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          30  66  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           23  64  33  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   25  67  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                27  67  36  67 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               30  67  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 24  54  33  56 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               25  53  33  54 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                24  52  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 21  58  27  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               27  61  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               25  64  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            21  58  26  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  24  61  30  60 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   23  65  29  62 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              26  60  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 26  61  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  26  68  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 25  66  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          27  67  34  66 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              30  63  34  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27-Laney/30-Dennhardt


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