Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 032000
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
200 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE FLOWING OVER THE REGION WILL HELP GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SOME OF THE STORMS OUT WEST MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. DAY
TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW OVER
EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS PLUME IS TAPPING MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT
IS SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...THE EXTRA
MOISTURE WILL FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
RAIN AMOUNTS FOR AREAS EAST OF LAS CRUCES WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHTER AND SPOTTY...DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT. OUT WEST...STRONGER STORMS WILL GENERATE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES...SMALL
STREAMS AND NORMALLY DRY ARROYOS. LOW WATER CROSSINGS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE GILA REGION MAY BE AFFECTED BY STORMS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE LARGE
PACIFIC LOW MOVES INLAND AND TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE RESULTING STRENGTHENED WESTERLY FLOW THAT OCCURS OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL PULL APART THE MOISTURE PLUME WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE LABOR WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED LOWLAND AND
SCATTERED HIGH MOUNTAIN STORMS EXPECTED. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL VARY
BUT WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH NO SPECIFIC
FLOODING THREAT. OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE THREE DAY
LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK MAY SEE A MODEST RESURGENCE OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME BY TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH THE WEST COAST TRIES TO
DEEPEN SOMEWHAT WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE SOUTHERLY TAP OF SUB
TROPICAL INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STILL BE
LINGERING OVER THE AREA BUT WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE
ENTRAINED WITHIN ITS CIRCULATION FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 04/00Z-05/00Z...
P6SM SCT-BKN080-100 BKN-OVC120-150 THRU PD. SCT 1-3SM TSRA BKN040
WEST OF RIO GRANDE AND AREA MTNS...ISOLD EAST OF RIVER. WINDS
GENERALLY W TO NW AOB 12KTS...BUT STRONGER WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL SHIFT EASTWARD IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLING DOWN ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM RECENT TEMPERATURES
EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO
LOWER 90S. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S
LOWLANDS WITH 40S AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 71  91  70  91 /  20  10  20  30
SIERRA BLANCA           66  92  66  91 /  20  10  20  30
LAS CRUCES              66  86  64  87 /  30  20  20  30
ALAMOGORDO              67  90  66  89 /  20  20  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              51  68  50  68 /  30  40  40  60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   65  83  63  84 /  30  40  40  30
SILVER CITY             58  75  57  76 /  50  60  50  40
DEMING                  64  86  62  86 /  30  50  40  30
LORDSBURG               63  82  61  84 /  60  50  40  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      71  92  70  92 /  20  10  20  30
DELL CITY               70  95  69  94 /  20  10  20  30
FORT HANCOCK            70  94  69  94 /  20  10  20  30
LOMA LINDA              66  88  66  87 /  20  10  20  30
FABENS                  69  93  67  93 /  20  10  20  30
SANTA TERESA            69  89  67  90 /  20  20  20  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  88  66  88 /  20  20  20  30
JORNADA RANGE           66  87  65  88 /  30  20  20  30
HATCH                   65  87  62  87 /  30  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                65  87  64  88 /  30  40  40  30
OROGRANDE               69  89  68  90 /  20  10  20  30
MAYHILL                 56  77  56  75 /  30  40  30  60
MESCALERO               56  78  54  78 /  30  40  40  50
TIMBERON                58  76  57  76 /  30  30  30  50
WINSTON                 56  73  54  74 /  60  50  50  50
HILLSBORO               61  82  59  83 /  40  50  40  30
SPACEPORT               65  85  63  86 /  30  30  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            52  74  50  75 /  60  60  50  50
HURLEY                  59  79  58  79 /  40  50  40  40
CLIFF                   59  79  57  81 /  50  60  50  40
MULE CREEK              55  75  53  77 /  40  60  40  40
FAYWOOD                 60  80  58  81 /  40  50  40  30
ANIMAS                  63  82  62  83 /  60  50  40  40
HACHITA                 62  84  61  85 /  50  50  40  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          62  82  60  83 /  50  50  40  50
CLOVERDALE              60  77  59  78 /  60  50  40  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26 LUNDEEN/GRZYWACZ


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