Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 131036
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
336 AM MST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft will bring dry weather and mild above normal
temperatures to southern New Mexico and west Texas today and again
on Thursday. An upper level low pressure system with a cold front
will then move across the region causing very isolated rain and
snow showers Thursday night with cooler dry conditions expected
Friday through Sunday afternoon. Another upper disturbance will
produce rain and snow along colder temperatures again Sunday
night and early Monday followed by seasonably cool dry weather
next Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Latest data and model output now showing a cooler more active
weather scenario than previously expected at this time yesterday.
For today and Thursday west to northwest flow aloft will bring
dry weather with the abundant sunshine supporting above normal
temperatures.

On Thursday an upper short wave will move southward into the
southern Rockies with the westerly flow ahead of it supporting
mild dry conditions. However the disturbance and an associated
cold front will move further southward across southern New Mexico
and west Texas Thursday afternoon and evening with deepening lift
possibly sufficient to produce isolated mainly light rain and snow
showers over Hudspeth County Thursday night.

Cool air advection...subsidence and high pressure behind the
trough and front will result in cooler dry weather Friday through
Sunday afternoon with temperatures near or slightly below normal.

Sunday afternoon and Sunday night a rather deep upper low will
move slowly to the southeast across the CWA with differential PVA
fields indicating strong attendant dynamic upward motion. In
addition another cold front will be pushing southward across the
region causing lifting in the boundary layer. Backing more
southerly flow ahead of these systems will transport modest
amounts of moisture from the south and southwest with these
factors combining to induce more widespread precipitation Sunday
night and early Monday. 500 mb temperatures falling to around -25
C will cause air mass to become marginally indicating a lightning
and heavier precipitation may exist over very isolated locations.
At moment mostly rain is expected Sunday evening before the
cooling behind the cold front causes the rain to change over to
mostly snow after midnight Monday. Still some uncertainties this
far in advance.

Subsidence and northwest flow aloft should cause cool dry weather
by Monday afternoon continuing through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with SKC-SCT250. Surface winds generally below 10
KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure aloft will bring dry weather and mild above normal
temperatures to southern New Mexico and west Texas today and again
on Thursday. An upper level low pressure system with a cold front
will then move across the region causing very isolated rain and
snow showers Thursday night with cool dry conditions expected
Friday through Sunday afternoon. Another upper disturbance will
produce rain and snow along colder temperatures again Sunday
night and Monday followed by seasonably cool dry weather next
Tuesday. Surface winds generally from 5 to 15 mph except possibly
around 15 to 25 mph Thursday and Thursday night again Saturday
night and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 63  37  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           62  37  59  33 /   0   0   0  20
Las Cruces              62  32  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              61  32  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              52  28  45  22 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   62  32  60  29 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             60  33  60  28 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  65  32  64  29 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               65  34  65  31 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      62  39  61  35 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               64  33  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            66  38  63  35 /   0   0   0  20
Loma Linda              58  37  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  64  36  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            62  35  61  31 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          62  35  60  31 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           62  29  61  27 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   64  31  62  29 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                63  35  64  31 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               62  34  60  30 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 57  29  50  24 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               55  29  52  24 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                55  29  50  24 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 59  26  57  22 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               61  32  60  27 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               62  29  60  27 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            60  26  60  21 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  61  31  62  25 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   63  27  65  23 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              61  31  63  28 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 62  33  62  29 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  65  33  67  30 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 64  33  66  30 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          63  36  66  31 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              62  37  64  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.