Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 020843
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
243 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR
WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DEEPER AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH MORE ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO ALL PARTS OF THE BORDERLAND REGION. CONTINUED WARM
TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MAKE THE AFTERNOONS
SOMEWHAT OPPRESSIVE. SKIES WILL SHOW A WIDE MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN.
SOME STORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASING THE RISK OF
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE BORDERLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SLUG OF DRIER AIR IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CWFA...AND QUITE OBVIOUS
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE UPPER RIDGE COMBINED WITH THIS DRIER
AIR HAS RESULTED IN TWO MOSTLY DRY DAYS. HOWEVER THIS DRY REGION
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED OVER THE AREA AS DEEPER UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO CONTRACT
BACK TO THE NW WHILE ROTATING WEST OF OUR AREA. REGIONAL
COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH
IN THAT DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH.

TODAY WILL BE TRANSITIONAL...FROM THE PREVIOUS DRY CONDITIONS TO A
MUCH MORE PERSISTENTLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. DEEPER MOISTURE IS ON IT`S WAY AND SHOULD BE WORKING INTO
THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THUS WE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN PW`S AND
DEWPOINTS AND A DECREASE IN STABLE CAPPING EFFECTS ALOFT. THE
RESULT WILL BE MORE AFTERNOON CLOUD FORMATION AND AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY FOR ALL AREAS LATE TODAY/THIS EVE. SHOULD
SEE SOME MTN STORMS BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. TODAY WILL BE QUITE
HOT WITH LOWLANDS REACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK. THAT HEAT WILL
HELP TO TRIGGER THE STORMS LATE TODAY OVER THE LOWLANDS.

BEYOND TODAY WE CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...FIRST FROM THE EAST AND LATER FROM THE SW. PW`S CURRENTLY
IN THE .80" RANGE WILL INCREASE TO THE 1.25-1.50" RANGE TONIGHT AND
HOVER THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS KEEPS
CONDITIONS UNSTABLE AND ALLOWS FOR PCPN CHANCES FOR ALL PERIODS
BEYOND THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEARLY ALL ZONES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST CYCLE.

TODAY AND FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED MORE WEST AND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR IMPULSES ALOFT TO TRACK IN FROM THE NORTH TO
HELP INITIATE STORM DEVELOPMENT. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE UPPER
HIGH IS PROGED TO SHIFT OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY SHELTER
OUR REGION FROM THESE IMPULSES...BUT THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL THEN
BE TRAPPED WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA THANKS TO LIGHT WINDS.

MODELS DO SEEM TO TREND A BIT DRIER BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AND RECYLED MOISTURE BEGINS TO WAIN A
BIT AS THE MID-LEVELS WARM IN SUBSIDENCE FOR A BIT OF CAPPING.

NONE OF THIS PATTERN LOOKS LIKE CLASSIC MONSOON TO ENABLE A GOOD
MOIST FETCH INTO THE SOUTHWEST...BUT JUST ENOUGH OF THE NECESSARY
ELEMENTS ARE IN PLACE TO BRING THE MOISTURE NONE THE LESS. THUS WE
ARE IN THAT TYPICAL SUMMER ENVIRONMENT WHERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
NEARLY ANYWHERE ANYTIME EACH DAY/NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 02/12Z-03/120Z...
GENERALLY VFR CONDS ALL TERMS TDY. VSBY P6SM. SKIES SKC-
FEW080-100 THRU 18Z. AFT 18Z ISOLD -TSRA SCT060-080 BKN130-150 AREA
MTS. AFT 22Z SCT080-100 SCT- BKN200-250 WITH ISOLD -TSRA OVR
LOWLANDS. WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 12KTS FROM SE E OF RIO GRANDE AND
W TO NW WEST OF RIVER. TSTM WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND ISOLD VSBY
BLO 1SM IN BLDU POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AFTER A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS LOW AND MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING LATER TODAY AND EVEN MORE SO FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP INTO THE WEEKEND AS STORMS WILL MOVE
VERY SLOWLY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 15 PERCENT
LOWLANDS THURSDAY AND THEN STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT STARTING FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT NIGHT RECOVERIES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS MAY BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TO MARK THE
END OF ANY EXTENDED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THIS FIRE
SEASON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                102  75  96  74 /  10  30  30  30
SIERRA BLANCA           99  70  92  68 /  10  20  20  20
LAS CRUCES             100  72  94  70 /  20  30  30  40
ALAMOGORDO              98  71  92  68 /  20  30  30  40
CLOUDCROFT              76  57  69  55 /  50  50  60  60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   97  70  92  69 /  20  30  40  40
SILVER CITY             90  65  84  63 /  50  40  60  50
DEMING                 100  71  94  69 /  20  30  40  40
LORDSBURG               98  69  94  69 /  20  30  50  40
WEST EL PASO METRO     102  76  96  74 /  10  30  30  40
DELL CITY              100  70  93  67 /  10  20  30  20
FORT HANCOCK           102  73  96  73 /   0  20  20  20
LOMA LINDA              97  69  90  69 /  10  30  30  30
FABENS                 102  73  96  72 /  10  30  30  30
SANTA TERESA           100  74  95  72 /  10  30  30  40
WHITE SANDS HQ         100  72  94  70 /  20  30  30  40
JORNADA RANGE           99  71  93  68 /  20  30  30  40
HATCH                  100  70  95  68 /  20  30  40  40
COLUMBUS               100  71  94  70 /  10  30  40  50
OROGRANDE               99  73  93  71 /  20  30  30  40
MAYHILL                 84  59  75  57 /  50  40  60  40
MESCALERO               86  59  78  57 /  50  40  60  50
TIMBERON                85  58  78  57 /  50  40  60  50
WINSTON                 90  61  84  60 /  50  50  60  50
HILLSBORO               96  66  91  65 /  30  40  40  40
SPACEPORT               99  71  92  68 /  20  30  30  40
LAKE ROBERTS            90  60  83  59 /  50  50  60  60
HURLEY                  93  66  87  64 /  30  40  50  50
CLIFF                   96  65  91  64 /  40  40  50  40
MULE CREEK              95  67  90  65 /  40  40  50  40
FAYWOOD                 94  66  89  64 /  30  40  50  40
ANIMAS                 100  69  96  68 /  30  30  50  50
HACHITA                100  69  96  68 /  20  30  40  60
ANTELOPE WELLS          97  66  94  66 /  30  40  40  60
CLOVERDALE              93  66  90  65 /  30  40  50  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD



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