Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 271034
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
434 AM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
We`ve got lots of moisture across the area so we will see
scattered showers and thunderstorms today. With the clouds and
showers our temperatures will cool a few degrees from yesterday.
For the end of the week we will see a slight chance for rain with
slightly above normal temperatures. That trend will continue as we
head into the coming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The moisture is here, and we are a little unstable, but we are
still missing a trigger to help fire off widespread thunderstorms.
So again, like Tuesday we will depend on orographics and heating
to help us get storms going in the mountains first and then they
will work off the mountains into the lowlands. Storms will be kind
of slow and will be very efficient at generating rainfall totals.
I would not be surprised if a few isolated spots receive to much
rain by later this evening. The heavy rain won`t be widespread
enough to warrant any highlights, but it will definitely be
possible in a few spots.

After today we will see a slight drying trend as our old friend
the upper level ridge begins to drift back in our direction.
Currently the ridge is centered over the Great Basin. But as the
ridge drifts back toward New Mexico it won`t be able to get rid
of all of our moisture so we will continue to see at least a
slight chance for rain for the end of the week into the coming
weekend. Temperatures will run a few degrees above normal after
today`s near normal temperatures. For the first part of next week
we will see the upper level ridge slowly move off to our east. As
it does it will help bring a decent moisture plume up out of
Mexico. At first the plume will be more centered over Arizona but
as the ridge moves further east it will help pull the plume
further in our direction. As the plume moves in we will again see
an uptick in our rain chances for the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 27/12Z-28/12Z
We`ve got lots of moisture and clouds in place today. We will see
off and on showers and thunderstorms during the day. But having
said all that I think we will see VFR conditions most places most
of the day. We will see occasional ceilings of BKN070 but most of
the time, if we have a ceiling, it will be more like BKN120. In a
few of the stronger storms we could see some brief MVFR ceilings
and visibilities. Gusty winds may also be a problem with a few
storms this afternoon. Storm movement will generally be from the
north to the south.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The moisture is in place now the question is will we see some
widespread rains to help wrap up this late running fire season? We
will see scattered showers and thunderstorms off and on during the
day with the best rain chances in area mountains early then they
will move down into the lowlands later in the day. We will see a
little less chances for rain as we head into the end of the week
and into the weekend. And our slight chances for rain will
continue into the first part of next week. Min RH`s will be above
20% for most locations through at least the weekend. Winds won`t
be much of a factor accept in and near a few of the stronger
thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 94  72  96  73 /  40  40  20  10
Sierra Blanca           89  68  90  69 /  40  40  20  10
Las Cruces              92  68  95  69 /  40  30  20  10
Alamogordo              91  68  96  68 /  60  30  20  20
Cloudcroft              68  52  74  53 /  70  50  40  20
Truth or Consequences   92  69  96  71 /  40  30  20  10
Silver City             88  63  91  65 /  60  30  30  20
Deming                  94  68  97  69 /  50  30  20  10
Lordsburg               94  67  97  68 /  50  30  20  10
West El Paso Metro      93  71  95  73 /  40  40  20  10
Dell City               91  67  94  67 /  40  40  20  10
Fort Hancock            93  71  95  73 /  40  30  20  10
Loma Linda              87  66  89  67 /  40  40  20  10
Fabens                  93  70  96  72 /  40  40  20  10
Santa Teresa            93  70  95  72 /  40  40  20  10
White Sands HQ          90  70  93  70 /  40  40  20  10
Jornada Range           92  65  96  66 /  40  30  20  10
Hatch                   94  68  97  69 /  40  30  20  10
Columbus                94  70  97  71 /  40  40  20  10
Orogrande               90  69  94  70 /  50  30  20  10
Mayhill                 75  54  80  55 /  70  40  40  20
Mescalero               78  54  83  55 /  70  40  30  20
Timberon                76  52  80  53 /  70  50  40  20
Winston                 85  57  89  59 /  60  30  30  20
Hillsboro               90  64  95  65 /  60  30  20  20
Spaceport               90  66  95  68 /  40  30  20  10
Lake Roberts            87  54  92  55 /  70  30  40  20
Hurley                  88  63  92  64 /  60  30  20  20
Cliff                   93  60  96  62 /  60  30  30  20
Mule Creek              90  57  94  59 /  60  30  30  30
Faywood                 90  62  93  64 /  60  30  20  20
Animas                  95  67  97  69 /  50  40  30  10
Hachita                 94  67  97  68 /  50  40  20  20
Antelope Wells          92  66  94  68 /  40  40  30  20
Cloverdale              87  62  90  64 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Brice



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