Area Forecast Discussion
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810
FXUS64 KEPZ 182351
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
451 PM MST Wed Jan 18 2017

.UPDATE TO INCLUDE AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 312 PM MST Wed Jan 18 2017/

SYNOPSIS...
Thursday will be sunny but cool, then on Friday and Saturday we
will see the next storm system affect the area. For both Friday
and Saturday we will see windy conditions with a good chance for
mountains snows and lowland rain showers Friday night through
Saturday night. For Sunday and Monday we will take a break from
the winds and precipitation before another storm system brings
winds and precipitation chances back to the area for the middle of
next week.

DISCUSSION...
We will get a quiet day on Thursday before our next round of
significant weather moves in for the weekend. Currently a weak
upper level low over northern New Mexico was slowly spinning off
to our northeast. The low is currently keeping our skies partly
cloudy but isn`t really strong enough or close enough to give us a
chance for some precipitation. As the low drifts east a short wave
upper level ridge will dash across New Mexico on Thursday. This
ridge will give us mostly clear skies in the morning, but clouds
will be on the increase. We should still manage a high
temperatures a few degrees above normal.

Things start to change on Friday as a one-two punch of storms
moves across the region. The first upper level trough will swing
across northern New Mexico on Friday. This system will have enough
strength and moisture to give us isolated lowland rain showers
and scattered mountain snow showers. In addition to the
precipitation it will also be pretty windy Friday afternoon.
Temperatures on Friday will sink a degree or two below normal. The
second, stronger system will approach the area Friday night into
Saturday. This system is stronger, further south and will be able
to tap some moisture so our precipitation chances will be very
high. In the mountains the snow level will be lower than previous
systems. The GFS has snow levels 6,000 to 6,500 feet while the NAM
has snow levels 5,000 to 5,500 feet. Right now I`m leaning more
toward the GFS solution, but if the NAM is closer to right we
could see a brief mix of rain and snow in many lowland locations.
It is a little early to talk snow totals, but it looks like 6 to
12 inches of snow will be possible above 7,000 feet by Saturday
evening. The other concern on Saturday will be the strong winds.
We could see even stronger winds then Friday and we may need a
wind advisory for Saturday afternoon. The concern would be when we
get strong winds during the cool season, they are much more likely
to do damage than during the warm season. We will need to
highlight this, as a possible impact for Saturday afternoon.

We will see drier and calmer conditions on Sunday and Monday, as
an upper level ridge tries to build across the area. We will see
highs on Sunday a few degrees below normal and Monday`s highs will
be a few degrees above normal. By Tuesday the ridge will have been
forced to the east as yet another upper level trough takes aim on
the area. This system will bring a chance of snow to the
mountains and another round of strong to very strong winds Tuesday
afternoon. Looking beyond the forecast the models indicate that
the rest of next week will be dry but very cool.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 19/00Z-20/00Z.
Otherwise mostly vfr conditions expected. SCt 030-070 SCT-BKN250
through the fcst pd. Winds WSW 10kts 00z-18z then 10g20kts mech
turbc onr mtns blo 15k msl lgt-nil.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Westerly winds will bring dry weather with near normal temperatures
to southern New Mexico and west Texas today and Thursday. A deep low
pressure system with a cold front will then move across the
southwestern United States Friday and Saturday.
This storm will produce windy conditions along with widespread rain
showers across the lower elevations with areas of heavy snow over
the higher mountains. Cooler temperatures are also expected Friday
through the weekend. High pressure will bring a return of dry
weather Sunday before another disturbance causes a few lowland rain
showers and high mountain snows Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 40  60  41  54 /   0   0   0  30
Sierra Blanca           36  59  38  54 /   0   0   0  20
Las Cruces              35  57  38  51 /   0   0   0  30
Alamogordo              35  56  38  51 /   0   0   0  20
Cloudcroft              27  41  26  32 /   0   0  10  40
Truth or Consequences   33  56  35  48 /   0   0  10  30
Silver City             30  49  33  40 /   0   0  40  60
Deming                  33  57  36  49 /   0   0   0  40
Lordsburg               33  56  36  49 /   0   0  20  50
West El Paso Metro      40  59  42  53 /   0   0   0  30
Dell City               33  61  36  55 /   0   0   0  20
Fort Hancock            37  62  38  58 /   0   0   0  20
Loma Linda              36  54  38  48 /   0   0   0  20
Fabens                  36  61  38  54 /   0   0   0  30
Santa Teresa            37  59  39  52 /   0   0   0  30
White Sands HQ          37  59  41  51 /   0   0   0  30
Jornada Range           31  58  35  50 /   0   0   0  30
Hatch                   33  58  38  50 /   0   0   0  30
Columbus                37  59  39  51 /   0   0   0  40
Orogrande               36  58  39  52 /   0   0   0  20
Mayhill                 32  52  32  44 /   0   0  10  40
Mescalero               29  48  31  41 /   0   0  10  40
Timberon                29  48  30  40 /   0   0  10  40
Winston                 26  51  28  41 /   0   0  20  30
Hillsboro               31  54  34  46 /   0   0  20  30
Spaceport               32  57  35  49 /   0   0   0  30
Lake Roberts            24  48  27  40 /   0   0  50  60
Hurley                  30  52  33  44 /   0   0  20  50
Cliff                   28  54  35  47 /   0   0  50  60
Mule Creek              27  52  33  43 /   0   0  50  60
Faywood                 32  53  34  45 /   0   0  20  50
Animas                  32  59  35  51 /   0   0  20  50
Hachita                 32  58  35  50 /   0   0  10  50
Antelope Wells          33  58  36  50 /   0   0  20  50
Cloverdale              34  54  36  45 /   0   0  20  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Brice/Novlan



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