Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 272114
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
314 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER HIGH OVER OKLAHOMA WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY
BEFORE MOVING WEST. THIS WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH
LIKELY WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. COMBINED WITH A
CONTINUING MOIST ATMOSPHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCAL FLOODING. BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND THE UPPER
HIGH WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THIS WILL BRING IN
DRIER AIR ALOFT AND LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY TO THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER HIGH STILL ANCHORED OVER NORTH TEXAS/OKLAHOMA TODAY WITH
TROPICAL PLUME REMAINING OVER NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN ARIZONA. TPW
PRODUCT SHOWING PW`S RANGING FROM 1.0 TO 1.2 INCHES. TWO FEATURES
TO WATCH ON THE WV IMAGERY. FIRST IS A SHORT WAVE OVER THE BIG
BEND/PERMIAN BASIN WHICH CONTINUES TOWARD THE CWA. CONVECTION JUST
STARTING TO KICK OFF IN THIS AREA AND WILL LIKELY MOVE WEST INTO
THE EASTERN CWA THIS EVENING. SECOND FEATURE IS UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN BAJA WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEAST. THE LOW ITSELF WILL
REMAIN WELL OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA...BUT THE TROUGH COULD MOVE UP TO
THE NM BOOTHEEL TONIGHT AND INCREASE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THERE.
MODELS SHOW MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG TONIGHT OVER THE LOWLANDS AND
AS HIGH 1500 J/KG OVER THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW BECOMING STRONG WITH WIND GUST POTENTIAL
OF 40-55 MPH AND SMALL PEA SIZED HAIL. SLOW STORM MOVEMENTS LIKELY
TO ALLOW A FEW PLACES WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AS DOES
MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HINTED AT A BACK DOOR
COOL FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA...THIS MORNING`S RUNS NOT VERY
EXPLICIT WITH THIS BUT CAN STILL FIND A WIND SHIFT LINE WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF EXTRA MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD BE THE
BEST WINDOW FOR AREA WIDE THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH ACTIVITY COULD
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THURSDAY. CONTINUED WEAK FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
GUARANTEE SOME FLOOD POTENTIAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...UPPER HIGH BEGINS SHIFTING WEST OVER
TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR IN ALOFT AS
TRAJECTORY TURNS NORTH AND BRINGS IN CONTINENTAL AIR. EXPECT A
RAMP DOWN IN ACTIVITY FOR THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH CLIMATOLOGICALLY
A NORTH FLOW OFTEN BRINGS DISTURBANCES AND COLD POOLS DOWN. SHOULD
STILL BE SPOTTIER RELATIVE TO THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 28/00Z-29/00Z...
P6SM FEW-SCT080-100 SCT-BKN200-250 THRU PD. ISOLD LOWLAND AND SCT
MTN 1-3SM TSRA BKN040-060 THRU 06Z AND AGAIN AFT 16Z. W TO NW
WINDS AOB 12KTS WILL BE SHIFTING MORE TO THE E TO SE EAST OF
DIVIDE BETWEEN 18Z-00Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED
LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN STORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR LOWLAND STORMS LATE TUESDAY
AS A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. GOING INTO
THE END OF THE WEEK...UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWLANDS AND ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 75  98  73  97 /  20  20  30  20
SIERRA BLANCA           69  93  67  93 /  20  20  20  20
LAS CRUCES              69  96  66  95 /  20  20  30  20
ALAMOGORDO              69  94  65  94 /  20  20  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              50  70  48  69 /  40  40  50  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   68  94  67  92 /  20  20  30  40
SILVER CITY             62  87  60  86 /  20  30  30  60
DEMING                  69  96  67  94 /  20  20  30  40
LORDSBURG               67  95  66  94 /  20  20  30  50
WEST EL PASO METRO      73  99  71  96 /  20  20  30  20
DELL CITY               72  97  69  97 /  20  20  20  20
FORT HANCOCK            73  98  71  97 /  20  20  30  20
LOMA LINDA              69  94  66  93 /  20  20  30  20
FABENS                  73  98  70  97 /  20  20  30  20
SANTA TERESA            71  97  69  96 /  20  20  30  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          70  96  67  94 /  20  20  30  20
JORNADA RANGE           68  95  65  94 /  20  20  30  30
HATCH                   67  97  65  96 /  20  20  30  40
COLUMBUS                70  96  67  93 /  20  20  30  40
OROGRANDE               70  95  68  95 /  20  20  30  30
MAYHILL                 57  81  54  79 /  40  40  40  50
MESCALERO               54  82  53  80 /  30  40  40  50
TIMBERON                56  81  54  79 /  40  40  40  50
WINSTON                 59  86  57  82 /  30  30  30  60
HILLSBORO               65  94  61  92 /  20  20  30  40
SPACEPORT               68  94  66  93 /  20  20  30  40
LAKE ROBERTS            57  87  56  84 /  30  40  40  60
HURLEY                  64  91  60  89 /  20  20  30  50
CLIFF                   61  92  61  91 /  20  20  20  50
MULE CREEK              58  92  58  92 /  10  20  20  60
FAYWOOD                 64  92  61  89 /  20  20  30  50
ANIMAS                  67  93  66  93 /  20  30  30  50
HACHITA                 67  93  66  93 /  20  20  30  50
ANTELOPE WELLS          65  89  64  90 /  20  40  40  50
CLOVERDALE              64  88  62  88 /  20  40  50  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/GRZYWACZ


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