Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 091038
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
338 AM MST Fri Dec 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong warm up on the way to the Borderland beginning today and
lasting over the weekend and much of next week. Mostly dry west
flow aloft will dominate through the period. East winds at the
surface which brought the cold air in will begin turning south
today and then southwest Saturday. Temperatures will still be a
bit below normal today but then warm up above normal Saturday and
remain that way through at least mid week of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Looks like a significant stretch of zonal flow aloft setting up,
which will create a nice warmup more akin to fall than winter. In
the short term some low clouds continue to linger across the
eastern CWA. Satellite shows decent patch over much of Hudspeth
and SE Otero counties and beginning to increase over El Paso
county. HRRR shows clouds mostly dissipated by noon which seems
reasonable, though don`t prefer solution of pushing the clouds
west of the Franklin/Organ mountains. Will mention some freezing
fog in with the low clouds, though haven`t seen any actual
evidence of this yet.

Otherwise really no sensible weather to even talk about. Zonal
flow will persist as main storm track stays well north of the CWA.
GFS does show occasional bouts with considerable high level
moisture so did mention a couple of days of partly cloudy--just
likely cirrus though. Temperatures will begin sharp climb today,
with highs just a bit below normal. Highs back above normal
Saturday and should remain that way through the end of the
forecast period.

Weather more unsettled just after the end of the forecast period
(Friday/Saturday). 00Z GFS shows strong Pacific storm finally
breaking the zonal flow and moving to the area Friday night and
Saturday, bringing showers and strong winds to the area. 06Z GFS
appears much different, with weaker system and at least 24 hours
slower. ECMWF brings feature across as a weak progressive wave,
perhaps with just a few showers Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 09/12Z-10/12Z...
Genly VFR conditions thru pd. CIGS AOB 020 patchy vsbys 3-5SM
FZFG across El Paso, Hudspeth and SE Otero counties until around
18z, then dissipating. Winds east-southeast 10-15KTS thru 03z then
east-northeast 10-15 kts becoming northerly around 11Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Northwest to southeast flow sets up over the region today helping to
slowly warm temperatures back up to near normal values and drying
out the atmosphere. Over the weekend winds will shift to the west-
southwest but will remain fairly light. As previously forecasted
vent rates will be limited today due to light winds aloft and
shallow mixing. The beginning of next week could see high
temperates as warm as the low 70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 52  33  62  40 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           51  31  61  38 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              51  29  61  36 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              50  31  59  37 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              40  24  48  29 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   52  30  61  37 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             49  29  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  50  28  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               51  28  60  34 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      52  34  62  41 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               49  28  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            56  32  66  39 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              45  31  56  38 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  55  30  63  37 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            51  30  62  37 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          49  32  60  40 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           53  20  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   52  27  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                51  29  64  37 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               50  32  60  37 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 47  28  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               46  27  54  33 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                41  26  52  31 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 51  24  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               53  28  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               51  21  60  29 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            51  23  58  26 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  48  28  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   53  21  60  24 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              51  19  58  21 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 52  29  61  35 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  55  26  65  33 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 53  25  64  33 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          53  28  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              56  31  61  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Hefner/Pazos



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