Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 211012
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
412 AM MDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The deeper moisture and risk for wide spread flash flooding has
moved off to the east. We will continue to see a chance for rain
through Wednesday. For Thursday and Friday we will see a little
better chance for rain, then as we head into the weekend our rain
chances will be lower. Our temperatures, today through the end of
the week will run a few degrees below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The deeper moisture has moved out and our heavy rain event under
preformed this weekend. A few spots got a little over an inch,
but nobody saw any excessive rain. The good news is that many
locations saw some good beneficial rains. A few storms continue
to linger this morning, but hopefully they can wrap up and the
clouds move off in time to see the eclipse. Right now the best
viewing of the partial eclipse a little before noon will be over
southwest New Mexico, but I`m hopeful that most of us will at
least have partly cloudy skies by late morning so that we can
occasionally get a glimpse of the moon covering 60 to 70% of the
sun. Please remember do not look directly at the partial eclipse.

Later today we will see scattered mountain thunderstorms and
isolated lowland thunderstorms pop up after the main eclipse show
has ended. We will see that same pattern of thunderstorms each
day through Wednesday. By midweek the upper level ridge to our
east will have moved west and settled over New Mexico, but like I
said, our rain chances will continue since there will be a decent
amount of moisture trapped under the ridge. By Thursday the upper
level trough that has been lingering to our west will begin to
lift out toward the northeast. As it does it will pull some
moisture and instability up across the area and give us an up tick
in our rain chances for Thursday and Friday.

For the weekend the upper level ridge will drift off to our
northwest. At the same time both the GFS and ECMWF indicate that a
tropical system will move up the Rio Grande valley. Previous runs
of the extended model had the system and associated moisture
moving close to our area, but the last few runs, including the
current runs, have the circulation around the upper level ridge
keeping the system from making it much further west than south
central Texas. But having said that we will still see a chance for
afternoon and evening thunderstorms next weekend as moisture
continues to linger across the area. Both models also indicate
that we will see a drying trend for the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 21/12Z-22/12Z
A few showers and thunderstorms will remain this morning before
wrapping up by late morning and then we will see another round of
scattered mountain and isolated lowland thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. We will generally see VFR conditions today,
a few spots may see MVFR ceilings and visibilities in and near the
thunderstorms. Clouds will be variable, with ceilings of SCT-
BKN080 fluctuating from time to time. Storm motion today will be
from the south to the north.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
While we will be drier the next several days, we will still see a
daily chance for scattered mountains and isolated lowland
thunderstorms through midweek. We will see a better chance for
rain for the end of the week, before lower rain chances return for
next weekend. Winds will stay below critical levels, accept for
some gusty outflow winds near thunderstorms. Min RH`s will stay
above 30% this week into the coming weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 90  71  94  72 /  30  20  20  20
Sierra Blanca           88  67  91  68 /  40  20  20  20
Las Cruces              88  67  93  69 /  30  20  20  20
Alamogordo              87  67  91  67 /  40  30  30  30
Cloudcroft              68  52  70  52 /  40  30  50  30
Truth or Consequences   88  66  92  69 /  40  20  20  30
Silver City             83  61  86  63 /  40  40  30  30
Deming                  89  66  93  67 /  30  20  20  30
Lordsburg               89  66  93  69 /  30  20  20  30
West El Paso Metro      90  71  94  72 /  30  20  20  20
Dell City               90  69  94  69 /  40  20  20  30
Fort Hancock            91  71  95  72 /  30  20  20  20
Loma Linda              84  66  89  67 /  40  20  20  20
Fabens                  91  71  95  72 /  30  20  20  20
Santa Teresa            90  69  94  71 /  30  20  20  20
White Sands HQ          88  68  92  70 /  30  30  20  20
Jornada Range           88  66  93  68 /  30  20  20  30
Hatch                   90  66  94  69 /  30  20  20  30
Columbus                89  68  93  70 /  30  20  20  30
Orogrande               88  69  92  70 /  40  30  20  20
Mayhill                 77  57  79  57 /  40  30  50  30
Mescalero               77  56  79  56 /  40  30  50  30
Timberon                75  56  77  57 /  40  30  40  30
Winston                 81  57  85  60 /  40  40  40  30
Hillsboro               86  62  89  64 /  40  30  30  30
Spaceport               88  66  92  68 /  40  30  20  30
Lake Roberts            82  56  85  59 /  30  30  40  40
Hurley                  84  61  88  63 /  40  20  20  30
Cliff                   89  61  93  64 /  40  40  30  30
Mule Creek              86  63  90  65 /  50  30  20  30
Faywood                 85  61  89  64 /  30  30  20  30
Animas                  88  66  93  68 /  30  20  20  30
Hachita                 89  65  92  67 /  30  20  20  30
Antelope Wells          88  65  92  67 /  40  20  20  30
Cloverdale              84  63  88  64 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.

&&

$$

Brice



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