Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 211032
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
432 AM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will persist through the weekend and through at least
the middle of next week. Slightly breezy west to southwest winds
on Saturday will help keep temperatures a few degrees above
normal, but a weak cold front dropping in from the north Saturday
Night will bring seasonal temperatures and lighter winds to the
area on Sunday, with middle and upper-70s common in the lowlands.
Temperatures will climb back up above normal for Monday, but will
cool back down again Tuesday as a weak backdoor front pushes in
from the east.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Large scale pattern features upper level troughing west of the
Rockies and ridging east of the Mississippi. However, this pattern
will pretty much reverse itself for the first half of the week
ahead. The end result will be periodic intrusions of cooler air
without much fanfare (and no precip threat until at least the end
of the week).

For today, a shortwave trough is currently moving into western NM,
carrying with it a few mid level clouds. It has also helped to
keep west-southwest winds slightly elevated overnight...enough to
keep the boundary layer well-mixed and temperatures mild,
especially east of area mountains. At 4 AM, temps in El Paso had a
sharp E-W divide, with low/mid-60s on the west side and in the
Upper Valley, but low-mid 70s east of the Franklins where
downslope winds are slightly breezier.

MOS guidance still wants to pull ELP down into the 79-80 range for
Saturday (behind the incoming trough), but that`s likely a couple
degrees too cool.

High pressure settling over the Central Rockies will push a very
weak cold front into the area from the north Saturday night,
cooling temperatures back below normal (lots of 40s in the
lowlands, 20s in the usual Gila cold spots), but not likely
introducing freezing temperatures to anywhere that hasn`t seen it
yet this season.

Highs on Sunday will be in the mid/upper-70s in the lowlands,
within a degree or two of climo.

Temperatures will climb back up into the 80s for Monday, but NW
flow pattern aloft (part of that switch to ridge west/trough east)
will allow a backdoor front to push in late Monday night or
Tuesday morning, cooling us back down to near normal. Temperatures
will try to climb back up above normal again by Thursday.

Precip threat looks minimal even heading into the weekend, though
we could get grazed by a shortwave trough Thu Night/Fri, with
another backdoor front in its wake for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
West to SW winds of 10-15 knots will continue as an upper level
through the morning hours as an upper level shortwave trough moves
across NM. Trough persisting over the northern/central Rockies
will keep a relatively tight pressure gradient in place this
afternoon, with W-SW winds maintaining 12-18 knots with a few
gusts in the 22-28 knot range possible. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail with just a few passing high or mid clouds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Relatively tight pressure gradient will remain in place today,
keeping W to SW winds on the breezy side. Temperatures will be
down a few degrees from Friday, but will remain 3-6 degrees above
normal, while RH values drop into the mid/upper-teens (lowlands)
to mid-30s (above 7500 feet). Vent Rates will be favorable, but
this will quickly change on Sunday as a weak cold front pushes in
from the north, and brings limited mixing and lighter winds to the
area. Vent rates will improve by Tuesday as a backdoor front
brings increasing easterly winds, along with cooler (near normal)
temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 82  49  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           81  48  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              79  44  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              79  44  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              56  36  63  39 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   78  43  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             71  41  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  82  42  77  42 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               78  42  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      79  51  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               83  41  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            82  50  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              75  45  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  83  46  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            80  48  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          78  46  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           79  39  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   81  45  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                81  45  77  43 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               81  45  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 65  38  66  41 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               68  38  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                64  37  65  39 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 68  28  72  33 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               78  41  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               79  40  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            74  27  77  31 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  73  35  75  39 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   78  30  80  35 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              76  29  77  32 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 76  40  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  79  42  79  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 80  40  78  43 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          81  42  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              78  42  78  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25-Hardiman



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.