Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 142030
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
230 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL LIMIT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
ISOLATED AREAS THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BUT
STILL BELOW NORMAL. A LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND MOSTLY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY TO THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND THE
GILA REGION WITH A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ELSEWHERE. RAIN AMOUNTS
WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN
SOME MOISTURE FOR GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT FOR THE AREA MAY OCCUR FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THAT THE TRACK 0F TROPICAL
SYSTEM ODILE WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AS
IT TRACKS NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
EAST OF THE SYSTEM WILL PUMP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND ARIZONA BY TUESDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SATURATED
TOP TO BOTTOM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING A 170 PERCENT
OF NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND OF ODILE MAY
MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE MOISTURE SURGE AND PROVIDE THE
LIFTING TRIGGER NEEDED TO INITIATE RAIN. THIS SCENARIO IF IT PLAYS
OUT...HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DUMP CONSIDERABLE HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE
AREA WITH SOME FLOODING POTENTIAL. THE SITUATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN
AS LATER MODEL RUNS MAY BACK OFF ON THE RAIN POTENTIAL. BUT AS AS
A RESULT...HAVE TRENDED RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
UPWARD INTO THE HIGH END SCATTERED CATEGORY WITH ROOM TO INCREASE
CHANCES FURTHER IF NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MAY BE LESS ACTIVE OVER THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TRIES TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION
AND TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE WEAKENS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL STILL
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
THE FOCUS WILL BE MAINLY WEST AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

THE PATTERN MAY BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AS THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ARE CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS ACTION WILL PULL THE
MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE AREA WITH ALONG WITH SYSTEM WHICH WILL
INCREASE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE PLUME OF MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING.


&&

.AVIATION...VALID 15/00Z - 16/00Z...
LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BREAK UP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISO/SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
NORTHERN GRANT...SIERRA...AND OTERO COUNTIES...WITH THUNDERSTORM
MAINLY FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN.

CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL FAVOR THE RE-DEVELOPMENT
OF LOWER CLOUDS AGAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. CEILING HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 3500-5000 FT RANGE...
SO REMAINING VFR.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN EXPECTED TOMORROW...MAINLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT ALSO BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE LOWLANDS MONDAY
NIGHT. A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TUE/WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER IS BEGINNING TO THIN OUT ACROSS THE AREA...AND A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
LATER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE GILA REGION.

OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SLOWLY RAMP UP TOMORROW...BUT
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER
MOISTURE WORKS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST...AND PW VALUES APPROACH 1.6
INCHES WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. DEFORMATION AXIS AND BAND OF
LOW/MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THE RESULT OF HURRICANE ODILE PRESSING
UP AGAINST THE MONSOON RIDGE DRAPED TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...WILL
PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAINFALL TUE/WED.  SOME LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.

THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AFTER WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE REDEVELOPS JUST EAST OF OUR AREA...AND A SLOW-MOVING PACIFIC
TROUGH PULLS THE LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM ODILE INTO CA/AZ.

OVERALL THE WEEK AHEAD LOOKS TO BE ON THE WETTER SIDE WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 64  83  66  82  65 /  10  20  20  40  40
SIERRA BLANCA           57  78  61  76  61 /  10  30  20  40  30
LAS CRUCES              61  82  62  81  63 /  10  20  20  30  40
ALAMOGORDO              59  83  63  82  64 /  10  20  20  40  30
CLOUDCROFT              47  65  49  64  48 /  30  40  40  50  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   62  84  64  81  61 /  10  20  30  20  30
SILVER CITY             58  80  59  77  59 /  20  30  30  40  40
DEMING                  60  85  62  81  61 /  10  20  20  40  50
LORDSBURG               61  84  63  85  62 /  10  20  20  40  50
WEST EL PASO METRO      63  84  65  82  65 /  10  20  20  40  40
DELL CITY               57  83  61  83  63 /  10  30  30  40  30
FORT HANCOCK            62  82  65  83  66 /  10  20  20  40  40
LOMA LINDA              59  78  62  77  62 /  10  20  20  40  40
FABENS                  61  82  63  83  65 /  10  20  20  40  40
SANTA TERESA            62  83  64  82  64 /  10  20  20  40  40
WHITE SANDS HQ          61  83  63  80  63 /  10  20  20  30  40
JORNADA RANGE           57  84  59  82  59 /  10  20  20  30  40
HATCH                   59  83  61  80  61 /  10  20  20  30  40
COLUMBUS                64  84  64  82  65 /  10  20  20  40  50
OROGRANDE               61  82  64  80  64 /  10  20  20  30  30
MAYHILL                 50  69  52  71  53 /  30  40  40  50  40
MESCALERO               50  73  54  73  54 /  30  40  30  50  30
TIMBERON                47  71  51  71  52 /  20  30  30  50  40
WINSTON                 54  75  56  74  56 /  20  30  30  50  30
HILLSBORO               57  79  61  76  60 /  20  20  30  40  40
SPACEPORT               59  83  61  81  60 /  10  20  20  20  30
LAKE ROBERTS            56  79  57  76  56 /  30  30  30  50  40
HURLEY                  60  82  61  77  61 /  10  30  20  40  40
CLIFF                   56  84  57  81  56 /  20  20  30  40  40
MULE CREEK              51  81  53  78  52 /  20  20  30  40  40
FAYWOOD                 59  78  61  77  60 /  10  20  20  40  40
ANIMAS                  62  85  63  82  63 /  10  20  20  40  50
HACHITA                 58  83  60  83  59 /  10  20  20  40  50
ANTELOPE WELLS          57  85  59  81  59 /  10  30  20  50  50
CLOVERDALE              59  83  60  79  59 /  10  30  30  50  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/25 LUNDEEN/HARDIMAN





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