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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 281029
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
329 AM MST Tue Feb 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be a strong wind day across the Borderland today as a
Pacific storm system rolls through. Very wind conditions are
expected by late morning and will persist into the early evening.
Gusty and dusty will prevail with sustained winds as high as 40
mph and gusts to near 60 mph. Driving will be difficult and
blowing dust will make for dangerously low visibilities and road
closures. A few showers are also expected, but mainly over the
Gila region and surrounding areas, with most locations staying dry.
Snow will remain high elevation with only a couple inches
possible above 7500 ft. Today`s storm system exits this evening
with a cold front pushing in. Cooler, drier weather for Wednesday
with much lighter winds. High pressure builds over the
Southwestern U.S. for the remainder of the week and into the
weekend to warm the region, keep winds lighter, and bring a period
of dry conditions to the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
We`ve lit up the WWA (Watch/Warning/Advisory) map across the
region for today`s Pacific storm arrival as wind, dust, and fire
danger all become major concerns for much of Southern New Mexico
and Far West Texas. A fairly sharp Pacific trough will swing
across the Southwestern U.S. today and pass over New Mexico this
afternoon. The timing is perfect for the deep mixing that max
temps will bring. The atmosphere will be fighting the opposing
effect of clouds trying to keep the surface cooler and mixing
reduced. However pressure gradients at all levels are pretty tight
thanks to our position at the base of the passing trough with a
140kt jet aloft over our CWFA. Prog soundings do show deep mixing
thanks to cooling aloft despite the cloud cover. The mixing depth
shows winds of 55-60kts at the top...with average winds 35+kts.
Thus it won`t take much mixing to realize windy and very windy
conditions today. Thus we ride on the advisories and warnings for
winds and dust previously issued.

Trajectories being nearly pure westerly will keep most of the
Mexican dust plumes over southern El Paso county and most of
Hudsepth county. The SW NM playas will certainly impact the I-10
corridor, and southern desert zones, and closures are expected.
Moisture with this system will be meager over S and E zones with
drying expected during the course of the day as the system lifts
NE and draws in a dry slot. To the N and W will be the best
moisture availability assoc. with stronger dynamics. Thus pops
are limited to W, Gila, and Sac zones with some spillage into the
surrounding lowlands. With a very progressive pattern moving the
storm out quickly, QPF is low. Looking at vertical temp profiles
snow is not supported below 7000ft...and only over the Gila for
that. Finally, models do continue to show instability under the
passing thermal dip aloft in the trough. Thus a few thunderstorms
are possible over Grand and Sierra counties this afternoon.

All this exits the region quickly in the evening and overnight
hours. A cold front trails the system and moves in overnight.
Winds shift to north and Wednesday will be cooler (about 5-8
degrees cooler than today, and 3-5 degrees below normal), but
absent the strong winds.


The rest of the forecast cycle shows high pressure building over
the Western U.S. This displaces the storm track well north and
places our region within a benign pattern with warming temps, a
dry airmass, and lighter winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
Valid 28/12Z-29/12Z...
Increased clouds should persist through much of the day as a
Pacific storm system moves in from the west with a bit of high and
mid-level moisture in tow. Skies SCT-BKN080-100 BKN150-200 across
the region. Scattered 1-3SM -SHRASN BKN020-030 expected to
develop mainly over the Gila region and to a lesser extent into
the Sacramento Mountains which will continue off and on through
29/03Z. Windy conditions today with W to SW winds of 25-35G50KTS
aft 15z. VSBY reductions expected in areas of BLDU.  3SM BLDU by
18Z and continuing through 02-03z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A vigorous Pacific storm system will move through the region today
and bring what may likely be the strongest winds of the year.
Windy west wind conditions today with sustained winds of 25 to 40
mph and gusts over 60 mph possible. Fire weather conditions will
be elevated today for all areas...but some areas east of the
river will experience critical conditions, especially over
Hudspeth County and into far southeastern Otero County. Areas west
of the Rio Grande will likely keep relative humidities above 15
percent as a bit of moisture and possible showers move in over the
Gila and surrounding areas today. A bit of instability may also
spark a few thunderstorms. A cold front pushed in as the system
exits this evening.  A slight cool down in temperatures is
expected Wednesday but temps will rewarm back toward 70 degrees by
Friday and Saturday. Wind speeds starting Wednesday are expected
to remain well below critical thresholds but relative humidities
in the lowlands will be mainly in the teens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 70  45  64  37 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           72  43  64  38 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              66  38  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              68  38  61  32 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              36  21  37  22 /  20  10   0   0
Truth or Consequences   63  37  59  33 /  20   0   0   0
Silver City             47  33  53  29 /  50   0   0   0
Deming                  63  35  61  32 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               60  31  61  30 /  20   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      68  46  64  38 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               72  36  66  29 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            76  43  67  36 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              64  41  59  36 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  72  42  66  34 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            68  40  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          66  43  63  37 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           65  35  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   64  38  61  33 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus                66  40  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               68  40  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 52  30  51  26 /  20  10   0   0
Mescalero               48  27  47  25 /  20  10   0   0
Timberon                48  28  48  26 /  20  10   0   0
Winston                 45  26  53  24 /  40  10   0   0
Hillsboro               53  32  57  28 /  30   0   0   0
Spaceport               63  36  59  31 /  10   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            40  21  52  20 /  60   0   0   0
Hurley                  50  31  54  27 /  30   0   0   0
Cliff                   52  25  58  24 /  60   0   0   0
Mule Creek              45  28  56  28 /  60   0   0   0
Faywood                 49  32  55  29 /  30   0   0   0
Animas                  64  32  64  31 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 64  34  63  31 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          63  34  65  33 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              58  35  61  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Blowing Dust Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this
     evening for NMZ404-407-411>413.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this
     evening for NMZ410>413-417.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this
     evening for NMZ112.

     High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for NMZ414>416.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening
     for NMZ403>405-407>409.

TX...Blowing Dust Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this
     evening for TXZ418-419-423.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this
     evening for TXZ418>424.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this
     evening for TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

14-Bird



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