Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
FXUS64 KLZK 180512 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1112 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017
Persistent low clouds acrs NRN AR wl result in MVFR/IFR conds thru
much of the PD. Elsewhere, VFR conds wl gradually deteriorate
overnight as the next round of rain advances NWD. Expect widespread
IFR conds ovr CNTRL/SRN AR on Wed/Wed night.
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 246 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday
No significant changes in the short term forecast this afternoon
really. A closed upper low over the desert southwest will continue
to meander this direction in the coming days. It will finally push
east of Arkansas late Thursday evening, bringing the wet weather
to an end. Before then however, several waves of precipitation
will move through the forecast area.
Precipitation will mostly affect the southern half of the state,
but will spread north Wednesday evening into Thursday morning as
the upper low approaches. Extended periods of rain can be
expected in the south, with the heavier precip coinciding with
disturbances moving through late this evening through early
Wednesday morning, and again Wednesday evening through around
daybreak. Rainfall amounts are not off the chart, but 3-4 inches
of rain between now and Thursday will be possible for areas in far
southern and southeastern Arkansas. Do have thunder mentioned in
the forecast as well, but right now the severe weather aspect of
this system does not appear all that impressive.
LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday
Model solutions in good agreement at the start of the long term
period as an upper level closed low will be in place across the
Central Plains with southwesterly flow aloft over Arkansas. At the
surface, a cold front will be shifting east of the state, with rain
chances coming to an end briefly. Dry weather will be seen for
Rain chances will once again increase from south to north on
Saturday, with greater chances for showers and thunderstorms
expected late Saturday into Sunday. These increased rain chances can
be attributed to an upper shortwave trough that will take aim at
Arkansas from the Four Corners area Saturday and intensify into a
closed low by Sunday. The track and strengthening of this impressive
feature is well agreed upon by long range model solutions. At the
surface, the associated low will track along the Red River and make
is way across Arkansas.
Thunderstorm activity with this system is a given and temperatures
are expected to climb into 60s with dewpoints in the 50s to around
60 in many places. As far as a severe weather threat goes, it looks
as if the southeast half of the area would be favored primarily on
Sunday as a warm front lifts northward across the state and the
surface low and trailing cold front move over the area from the west.
By Monday and into Tuesday next week, the upper level pattern will
be out of the northwest in the wake of this weekend`s potent system.
This will usher in drier, cooler air to the state. But, the
magnitude of cold air will be far from Arctic in nature with
overnight lows early next week expected to fall into the 30s and 40s
with daytime highs generally in the 50s.