Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 210730
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
230 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVED INTO THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT...BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL AND
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE DAY WEARS ON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY MOST EVERYWHERE TODAY...THEN
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO TUE MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES AWAY. THE
EXITING OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL USHER A FRONT INTO THE STATE.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF AREAS LIKE HARRISON
AND MOUNTAIN HOME BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND EXITING SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS BY SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING.

DO NOT EXPECT A NOTABLE COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE IT WILL
USHER IN DRIER AIR...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S TO
LOW 80S THROUGH THE REMAINDER SHORT TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
HAVE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT HAVE LIMITED THEM TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE ASSOC FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THU...WHILE
OTHER GUIDANCE ACTUALLY SHOWS DECENT QPF. WENT CONSERVATIVE WITH
THE RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW AND WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT FUTURE MODEL
RUNS HAVE TO SAY ABOUT IT.


&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY ACTIVE...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. FLATTENING UPPER FLOW WILL SLOW THE FRONT DOWN OR ALLOW IT
TO STALL OUT. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST
BY SATURDAY...PUSHING THE STALLED BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH.

A STRONGER FRONT WILL APPROACH BY SUNDAY...WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES...BUT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS
AND RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     75  57  75  47 /  60  60  10  10
CAMDEN AR         78  60  79  54 /  50  60  20  10
HARRISON AR       71  54  73  47 /  70  60  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    76  59  78  53 /  60  60  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  78  60  78  52 /  60  60  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     78  61  78  53 /  50  60  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      75  57  78  50 /  60  60  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  74  54  74  47 /  60  60  10  10
NEWPORT AR        76  58  75  48 /  60  60  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     77  60  77  52 /  50  60  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   77  57  78  50 /  60  60  10  10
SEARCY AR         75  58  74  46 /  60  60  10  10
STUTTGART AR      76  60  75  51 /  50  60  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...57






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