078
FXUS64 KLZK 051126
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
626 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Mid and high clouds were increasing in coverage across AR this
morning. This cloud cover was associated with a potent but compact
upper level shortwave moving towards AR. Regional WSR 88D radars
depicted an expansive area of convection already ongoing over
portions of LA/TX/OK. Predawn temperatures were hovering in the
60s.

Today, the aforementioned shortwave will track NEwrd across the
state. At the surface, an area of low pressure will also track NE
across NW AR beneath the shortwave. Showers and thunderstorms
will build into the state through the day. High temperatures will
warm somewhat, but not by a significant margin owing to abundant
cloud cover and precipitation. Temperatures should reach the lower
70s to near 80 degrees. Dew point temperatures should remain in
the 60s to near 70 degrees. Assessing the forecast environment for
early afternoon shows SBCAPE values could range from 1000-2500
J/Kg with MLCAPE up to 1500 J/Kg. SRH at both 0-1 Km and 0-3 Km
should be around 100 m2/s2 or less and 150 m2/s2 or less,
respectively. EBWD generally less than 20 Kts. Given this
environment, defined by high CAPE low shear, pulse severe weather
could/would be supported. This would entail an isolated large
hail and damaging winds threat with the strongest of storms.
Showers and thunderstorms will diminish in coverage from the SW
later this evening as the system moves into the OH Valley.

On Monday, a weak upper level disturbance will move across the
region, bringing rain chances back to the region. This is thanks to
persistent SWrly flow aloft keeping the weather pattern active. Rain
chances do not appear as great as today, nonetheless this
activity may continue into Monday night. High temperatures on
Monday should be a touch warmer, with readings in the upper 70s
to mid 80s. Total rainfall through the short term should generally
be around an inch or less.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

The extended period will start off with a large storm system
wobbling from the northern Plains into upper Midwest and Great
Lakes. The system will drag a cold front toward Arkansas on Tuesday,
but the front will likely stall just north of the state. This will
happen as the front becomes nearly parallel to the flow aloft.

South of the front, above to well above normal temperatures are in
the forecast on Tuesday. Afternoon CAPE values from 2000 to 3000+
J/kg seem reasonable, but there will not be much in the way of
forcing other than the boundary and daytime heating. Given this,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected, a few of which
will be severe. Large hail/damaging wind will be the main concerns.

There is more to worry about on Wednesday. Surface low pressure will
form along the aforementioned front in the southern Plains, and
track toward the mid-Mississippi Valley. The front will make headway
into the state late in the afternoon and after dark, and will
trigger scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms.
CAPE values will be higher than on Tuesday, and there will be
more shear. All modes of severe weather are in play.

The front will be in central/southern Arkansas on Thursday, so
hit/miss showers and rumbles of thunder will linger. As the big
system to the north wobbles to the east, the flow aloft will become
northwest, and this will drive the front toward the Gulf Coast.
Cooler/drier air will follow the front, and this will be realized to
end the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

SHRA/TSRA will overspread the state from SW to NE beginning
early/mid-morning, continuing through much of the day. MVFR conds
are expected to prevail, with IFR possible around heavier
convection. Precip should come to an end late in the TAF period
from the SW but lowered CIGs will linger a bit longer associated
with low-level stratus surrounding the surface low. Winds will be
fairly light at around 10 knts or less out of the S/SE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     74  64  82  69 /  90  80  60  40
Camden AR         77  64  83  68 /  90  40  40  20
Harrison AR       69  60  80  65 /  90  50  30  60
Hot Springs AR    73  63  81  67 /  90  50  30  40
Little Rock   AR  74  66  83  70 /  90  60  40  30
Monticello AR     79  67  85  70 /  90  50  30  10
Mount Ida AR      72  62  81  67 / 100  40  40  40
Mountain Home AR  71  61  80  66 /  90  70  40  50
Newport AR        78  65  83  69 /  90  70  50  40
Pine Bluff AR     76  66  84  69 /  90  60  40  20
Russellville AR   72  63  82  67 /  90  50  30  50
Searcy AR         75  63  82  67 /  90  70  50  40
Stuttgart AR      77  67  83  70 /  90  70  50  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...70