Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLZK 042333
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
633 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE. CONTINUE TO THINK
MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBPK AND KADF IN THE MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE LOW CHANCES OF CONVECTION
TODAY AND SATURDAY...THEN A BIT HIGHER SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK
AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES MORE TO THE WEST AND ITS INFLUENCE
WEAKENS OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID
90S WITH SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING 100 TO 105 DEGREES. WILD
FIRE DANGER REMAINS UP DUE TO LOW RAIN AND QUITE DRY CONDITIONS...
AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS AR.

WE ARE SEEING ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER AR AND UPDATE
DID ADD THIS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND WEAK
DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION HOLDING DOWN OVERALL
POTENTIAL. TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO REACH AROUND 100 TO 105 TODAY. A LIGHT SE
TO S WIND HAS BEEN BRINGING IN INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING PERIOD...THEN ENDING AFTER SUNSET. DRY OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE WEST...WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOONS TO EARLY
EVENINGS. ON MONDAY...ENOUGH SOME UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MAY BE SEEN IN THE UPPER NORTH FLOW...AND A BIT MORE CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE. NOT UNTIL LATER TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE A
BIT INCONSISTENT...A POSSIBLE FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY SAG CLOSER TO THE
REGION AND BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN TO AR. OTHERWISE TEMPS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL VALUES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 TO 105 DEGREES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE LONG TERM AS A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT NEARS THE STATE. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY ZONAL
DURING THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES.
MEANWHILE A WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY AND HOLD ON
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND TEXAS...IMPEDING THE PROGRESS OF THE
INCOMING FRONT. MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON HOW QUICKLY ASSOCIATED
RAINFALL WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS HAS A STRONGER UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS AND THE DESERT SW...AND
SUBSEQUENTLY HOLDS THE FRONT BACK A WHILE LONGER THAN THE
EUROPEAN...WHICH HAS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE BAJA
COAST TUE AND WED NEXT WEEK AND A RESULTINGLY WEAKER UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE US/MEXICO BORDER REGION. NEVERTHELESS...THE RESULT IS THE
SAME...THAT IS MORE CLOUDS...BETTER RAIN CHANCES...AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO ROUND OUT THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     71  94  70  93 /  20  10   0  10
CAMDEN AR         73  97  73  96 /  20  10  10  20
HARRISON AR       69  91  69  91 /  20  10   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    73  95  73  94 /  20  10  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  73  96  73  96 /  20  10  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     73  97  73  96 /  20  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      72  93  72  93 /  20  10  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  69  92  69  92 /  20  10   0  10
NEWPORT AR        71  94  70  94 /  20  10   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     73  96  72  96 /  20  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   72  95  71  94 /  20  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         72  95  71  95 /  20  10   0  10
STUTTGART AR      73  95  72  95 /  20  10  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.