Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
FXUS64 KLZK 262340 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
535 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017
Conditions will start VFR with ceilings, but patchy MVFR will be
seen with convection. Tonight, more areas of MVFR will be seen as
the convection increases this evening and tonight. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms will develop this evening and spread over the
entire state tonight. The convection will affect all Taf sites,
especially over central to southern AR. After midnight, more areas
of MVFR will be seen with additional rain and showers, and isolated
thunder. The upper system will gradually move through AR early
Monday morning. Winds will mainly be southeast to northeast at 5 to
15 mph. (59)
.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 235 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017
.Short term...Tonight through Tuesday night.
Overall the models remain in good agreement in the synoptic scale
with an active pattern shaping up for the most of the short term
period. Some minimal differences are evident in the timing of the
waves and the NAM remains the most aggressive in its solution. The
best course of action at this time is to blend solution but down
play the NAM somewhat.
After the coolest morning we have seen in quite a while courtesy of
high pressure, temperatures continue to rebound as southeast flow
has returned on the back side of the departing high. A very weak
shortwave is passing to the north of the state at this time but is
producing nothing more than sprinkles as the lower levels of the
atmosphere are simply very dry.
However, several more significant shortwaves will have to be dealt
with. First off, water vapor imagery continues to show a low
amplitude shortwave moving through the desert southwest. As the
system approaches, moisture will increase as a warm air advection
regime commences. While some showers will be possible this evening,
widespread precipitation will develop tonight and continue through
the night. Some elevated convection is possible but severe weather
is not expected.
The bulk of the precipitation will be over the east and southeast
parts of the state by sunrise and moving out during the morning.
However, a small chance of showers and thunderstorms will be held
onto as the upper pattern will continue to keep moisture in place
along with a few weak impulses in the prevailing flow.
A more significant trough will approach the area for Tuesday with
additional precipitation expected, especially later in the day and at
night. Strong warm air advection will continue as a warm frontal
boundary will be well north of the area. Record highs could be
flirted with on Tuesday with widespread 70s and even a few 80s
Severe weather can not be ruled out with plenty of instability, low
level moisture and shear in place, aided by a 100 knot jet streak at
H500. At this time, it looks like a hail, wind and low end tornado
threat will be possible in the late afternoon and early evening
hours. It must be emphasized this is in no way a sure thing as many
limiting factors could come into play. Still, it can be glossed over
either. Regardless, another batch of rain is expected.
What appears to be a better chance of is a line of thunderstorms
developing along and ahead of the associated cold front overnight
Tuesday and into the early morning hours. As the line develops
along/ahead of the front, wind damage would become the primary
concern with any severe storms and may last into early Wednesday
over the southeast.
.Long Term...Wednesday through Sunday...
In concert with a cold front moving through the state, ongoing
showers and potentially strong thunderstorms will continue Wed
morning across the southeast third of the state. The activity will
be ending from west to east and should clear the state around
noon, followed by some afternoon sun. Surface high pressure behind
the will bring several days of mostly clear, dry and mild
weather. A weak cold front will move through Thu night, but with
no appreciable moisture in place, this front should move through
dry. As the surface high moves east, moisture returns quickly late
Sat into Sunday, bringing the next chance of rain on Sunday in
advance of the next cold front.
Temperatures will run pretty close to seasonal averages during the
extended periods with highs generally in the 50s and 60s and lows in
the 30s and 40s.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 55 42 65 57 / 20 80 30 40
Camden AR 64 50 68 61 / 10 80 40 30
Harrison AR 53 39 65 55 / 20 30 20 20
Hot Springs AR 58 45 65 59 / 20 80 30 30
Little Rock AR 59 46 67 58 / 10 80 30 30
Monticello AR 62 52 68 63 / 0 80 60 50
Mount Ida AR 58 46 64 59 / 20 80 30 20
Mountain Home AR 53 40 66 55 / 20 40 20 30
Newport AR 55 42 64 57 / 10 80 30 50
Pine Bluff AR 60 49 64 60 / 10 80 40 40
Russellville AR 57 44 69 56 / 20 70 30 20
Searcy AR 56 42 66 57 / 10 80 30 40
Stuttgart AR 59 47 64 60 / 0 80 30 50
Short Term...56 / Long Term...32