Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 301800
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
100 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.AVIATION...
Light precipitation continues to move across the terminals at this
time. The shower activity will persist for only a few hours as
moisture rotates around upper level low pressure in SE Kansas. VFR
to occasional MVFR conditions will persist as drier air tries to
undercut the aforementioned low pressure as it starts to accelerate
NE. The actual cold front is lagging several hours behind with a
wind shift not expected until later in the period.

&&

.UPDATE...
Forecast updated to remove flash flood watch. Only light rain is
expected for the duration of this event. many areas however remain
inundated with water.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 1036 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017)

UPDATE...
Widespread heavy rain winding down but the overall effects will
be felt for some time. Flooding is still occurring across the area
as anywhere from three to six inches fell with higher amounts
especially in north central and east central sections of the CWA.
Once the water does run off, river flooding will become the
primary concern.

Latest radar shows widespread rain has exited to the east of the
CWA but numerous showers continue. Powerhouse upper level low
currently located over SE Kansas at this time and forecast to
finally lift out to the NE with drier air undercutting the
departing system. Update this morning will be mainly to work the
pops and gradually lower them from west to east.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 642 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017
)

AVIATION...
The cold front is still in western Arkansas this morning. It will
slowly move east through the state today. The area of showers and
thunderstorms over the east half of the state will slowly move
east but some remaining showers will linger behind the
thunderstorms. South winds will increase and become gusty this
morning through this evening...up to 30kts. Clouds will continue
overnight. MVFR and IFR conditions are likely this morning but
will improve to VFR this afternoon and evening.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 343 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017
)

DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are first period severe storm
threat and flash flooding and river flooding. Several severe
storms were seen Saturday evening and into the overnight, as well
as storm complexes with very heavy rain causing flooding. The
current storms are gradually moving east-northeast, and mainly
producing heavy rain and flash flooding. An isolated severe storm
still may be seen in the next few hours, but trends are showing a
lowering threat of severe storms. The surface cold front was over
western AR, while aloft the main core of lift is pushing across
AR. The upper low pressure system was over western OK and will
gradually move east on Sunday, with a much lower chance of light
convection on Sunday. Winds were still south to southeast ahead of
the cold front, with warm temperatures in the 60s and some 70s.

SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday Night

The first period will continue a high chance of showers and
thunderstorms, with heavy rain possible with the stronger storms.
Flooding will be on-going and the flash flood watch will continue
to Sunday evening. Winds will gradually become elevated ahead and
behind the cold front, and a lake wind advisory will be in effect
for much of eastern AR. The lake wind advisory may need to be
extended into Sunday night if winds remain elevated. The upper
low pressure will gradually move from OK to the upper mid- west,
and lighter showers will be seen over northern areas even late on
Sunday. Temperatures will start mild, then only rise a bit before
cooler and drier air filters into AR later Sunday night and on
Monday. Dry and breezy weather conditions on Monday as surface
high pressure builds into the southern Plain. Temperatures Monday
morning will be in the 40s to 50s, while highs in the 60s to 70s.

LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Saturday

Northwest flow will be over a good portion of the country as an
upper low moves through the Great Lakes. Zonal flow returns to
Arkansas Tuesday night as a ridge builds over the west coast. An
upper trough develops in the Plains Wednesday and moves across
Arkansas Thursday, forms a closed low and moves eastward Friday
and reaches the east coast by late Saturday.

A warm front will stall over Arkansas for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Rain chances will increase as moisture builds back into the area.
Expect small chances of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night and
better chances on Wednesday. Low pressure moving across the area
will drag a cold front through the state late Wednesday and early
Thursday. Drier air behind the front will limit rain chances for
Friday and Saturday. Above normal temperatures are expected Tuesday
but the rest of the long term temperatures will be below normal.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

56
Aviation...56



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