Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 230829
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
329 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE CONTINUE TO BE THE HOT AND
HUMID WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND CORRESPONDING HEAT INDEX VALUES.
BASED ON FRIDAYS NUMBERS AND TODAY`S FORECAST...WILL ISSUE HEAT
ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN AR TODAY...WHILE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH EITHER A CONTINUED HEAT ADVISORY AND OR
SPECIAL STATEMENT WILL BE NEEDED. CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN LOW AS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE REGION.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF AR AND THE
SOUTH WIND FLOW HAS KEPT MOISTURE LEVELS UP. DEW POINT TEMPS WERE
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST CENTRAL AR.
PRECIP WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO 1.81 INCHES AT KLZK. HAVE
NOT SEEN AS MUCH MIXING OUT OF DRY AIR ALOFT YESTERDAY AS WINDS
HAVE LOWERED JUST A BIT...AS COMPARED TO MID WEEK...AND THIS WILL
KEEP DEW POINT TEMPS UP TODAY. TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER TODAY AND THIS WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO 105
DEGREES FOR 3 TO 5 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. HENCE THE HEAT ADVISORY.
DEW POINT TEMPS WILL BE A BIT LOWER IN WEST CENTRAL TO WESTERN
AND WILL ONLY GO WITH THE SPECIAL STATEMENT FOR THE HEAT. THIS
WILL ALSO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

OTHERWISE...ALOFT THE UPPER RIDGE WAS HOLDING OVER AR...KEEPING
ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ENERGY WELL NORTH OF THE STATE. ON
FRIDAY...DID SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST AR...AND WHILE AN ISOLATED STORM MAY BE SEEN TODAY
DURING THE HEAT OF DAY...COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY
POPS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

MOSTLY SUNNY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY. LOWS IN THE 70S WHILE HIGHS IN THE 90S WITH
A FEW LOCATIONS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES. HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE
REACHED CRITICAL LEVELS AND A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED TODAY FOR
CENTRAL TO EASTERN LOCALS...WHILE A SPECIAL STATEMENT FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE CASE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE
FINE TUNING THE AREA FOR THE ADVISORY WILL BE DONE. SUNDAY NIGHT TO
MONDAY...THE GFS SHOWS SOME POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO EFFECT FAR
SE AR...BUT WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
INTO TUESDAY...MODELS ARE TRENDING TO BREAK DOWN THE SOUTH PART OF
THE UPPER RIDGE...AND ALLOW SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO MOVE FROM EAST
TO WEST ALONG THE GULF STATES. THIS SHOULD EFFECT AR AND FORECAST
HAS A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF POSSIBLE CONVECTION. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF ANY CONVECTION...AND WITH
LATER MODEL RUNS THIS WILL BE ADJUSTED. TUESDAY AND INTO MID
WEEK...TEMPS WILL COME BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS AS THE UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS A BIT OVER AR.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT DISAGREE ON
TIMING. AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS...HAVE GONE MORE WITH THE SLOWER
SOLUTION...WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.

WEAK WAVE MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST WILL ALSO BRING MORE GULF
MOISTURE TO THE REGION. THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO THE MID 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     98  74 100  73 /  10  10  10   0
CAMDEN AR         96  72  97  73 /  10  10  10   0
HARRISON AR       98  70  97  71 /  10  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    96  73  96  72 /  10  10  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  97  75  97  75 /  10  10  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     96  73  97  74 /  10  10  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      95  70  96  72 /  10  10  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  99  71  98  71 /  10  10  10   0
NEWPORT AR        98  74  97  74 /  10  10  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     95  73  96  75 /  10  10  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   97  70  97  73 /  10  10  10   0
SEARCY AR         97  73  98  74 /  10  10  10   0
STUTTGART AR      95  75  96  74 /  10  10  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GRANT-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-
JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-NEWTON-
PERRY-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...58




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