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000
FXUS64 KLZK 181201
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
701 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.AVIATION...
OVERNIGHT INVERSION TRAPPING ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO LIRF CONDITIONS NOTED
ACROSS MULTIPLE SITES. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO IMPROVE BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE INVERSION BREAKS AND DRIER AIR
MIXES DOWN. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT MOISTURE TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z WITH BR
LIKELY DEVELOPING AGAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

INCRSG LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WERE NOTED OVR THE FA EARLY THIS
MRNG. A WEAK SFC BNDRY WAS SITUATED ACRS CNTRL AR...MAINLY DENOTED
BY SFC DEWPOINTS ARND 70F. SLGTLY DRIER AIR WAS INDCD OVR NRN AR
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. VSBYS RMN ABV ADVY CRITERIA ATTM...BUT WL
MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

AN UPR RDG AXIS IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SLOLY EWD ACRS THE MID SOUTH
TODAY AND SUN. THIS WL RESULT IN EARLY SUMMERLIKE CONDS WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF HUMIDITY. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER OR STORM IN THE VCNTY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY TODAY...SO
DID INCLUDE SLGT CHC POPS ACRS THE NERN PART OF THE FA.

HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...A SLOW MOVG UPR
TROF WL WORK INTO PLAINS STATES. THE ASSOCD CDFNT WL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO THE NW OF AR STARTING LATE SUN.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT PARTS OF NWRN AR LATE SUN NGT AND
INTO EARLY MON AS THE IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS.

THE UPR TROF/ASSOCD CDFNT WL EVENTUALLY WORK CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE FA
BY TUE AND TUE NGT...TO PRODUCE BETTER CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA. THERE RMNS
SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING THE EWD PROGRESSION
OF THIS STORM SYS HEADING INTO MIDWEEK. OPTED TO TREND TOWARD THE
SLOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY. MEANWHILE...SOME
STRONG AND SVR STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR PARTS OF NWRN AR MON
NGT AND EARLY TUE. EXTENT OF SVR WX THREAT LATER ON TUE/TUE NGT WL
DEPEND ON CONVECTION TRENDS EARLIER IN THE DAY AND THE LOCATION OF
LINGERING SMALL SCALE BNDRYS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY...
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WILL STILL BE IN THE CARDS...DEPENDING ON PLACEMENT OF THE
UPPER AND SURFACE FEATURES. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. THERE COULD BE SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW...UNTIL BETTER CONSISTENCY IS ESTABLISHED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     84  69  88  69 /  20  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         89  70  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       86  68  87  67 /  10  10  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    87  71  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  87  71  89  70 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     88  70  90  71 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      86  70  88  70 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  69  89  67 /  20  10  10  30
NEWPORT AR        86  70  89  71 /  20  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     87  71  88  70 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  66  90  69 /  10  10  10  20
SEARCY AR         85  69  86  69 /  20  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      87  70  88  70 /  20  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...224