Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 032333 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
633 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECTING A DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER ROUND IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SITES DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT FELL TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN CONVECTION LOCATION
SATURDAY...AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAFS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN MOVED ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE TODAY
BRINGING AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN A MATTER OF JUST A COUPLE OF
HOURS. THIS PROMPTED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED. CLOUDS HAVE
REMAINED OVERCAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE WITH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO SCATTER A BIT DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WERE HELD REASONABLY IN CHECK WITH READINGS
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

A SLOW MOVING FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS WITH
THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN CONTINUING TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF
THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER DARK.
UNLIKE PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT PERIODS...DO EXPECT MINIMAL PRECIPITATION
TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO NOT LOOK AS WET AS
IT ONCE DID. CONTINUED TO TRIM BACK POPS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...THOUGH IT DOES STILL CONTINUE TO LOOK THAT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENING AND RAIN CHANCES...WHILE NOT
ZERO...DECREASING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND EXPECTED DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES THE
STATE IN THE LONG TERM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. DID GO AND
INCREASE MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...TO COINCIDE WITH THE DECREASING OF POPS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

PERIOD STARTS OFF UNSETTLED WITH YET ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING DOWN
FROM THE NORTH. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
INTENSITY OF THIS WAVE AND A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED THROUGH
OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WAVE DOES NOT QUITE MAKE IT ONTO THE STATE BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO
THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
REBUILD ALONG THE GULF COAST. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH UNTIL RIDGE BECOMES THE
DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EVEN SO.. DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIPITATION CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK TO...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN
MOST AREAS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58



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