Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KOUN 100451
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1151 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
VARIOUS CLUSTERS OF TSRA HAVE FORMED TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF
CO...KS..AND NE. THESE TSRA WILL MOVE SE...AND ARE LIKELY TO
AFFECT THE KPNC AREA BY SUNRISE...MOST LIKELY OCCURRING A FEW
HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 1100Z. MODERATELY STRONG WINDS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN/LOW CEILINGS/LOW VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THESE STORMS. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THE STORMS WILL
REACH KOKC/KOUN AFTER SUNRISE...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE DIMINISHING
IN INTENSITY BY THEN. ELSEWHERE...THE PROBABILITIES OF TSRA ARE
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF TSRA
BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z AT KWWR AND KGAG. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
MORE INTO THE SSW TOMORROW...AND BACK TO SE TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH
HIGH CLOUDS AND GOOD VISIBILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS THAT A STORM CLUSTER OVER KS WILL ADVANCE SE
OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING KPNC/KOKC/KOUN LATE TONIGHT...AND PROBABLY
ENDING AROUND SUNRISE. ANOTHER PLAUSIBLE SITUATION IS THAT A
STORM CLUSTER WILL ALSO FORM OVER THE TX PANHANDLE...AND BRING
SOME TSRA INTO FAR W OK...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KHBR/KCSM/KGAG/KWWR
LATE THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. NO EXTENDED PERIODS OF NON-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL TURN SLOWLY AROUND FROM SE TO
S TOMORROW MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014/

DISCUSSION...

OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION HAS MAINLY DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  NEW
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN NORTH TEXAS ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.  CU FIELD EXTENDS FROM THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTION INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE NEAR AMARILLO.  RECENT HRRR RUNS...DEVELOP STORMS IN
THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE AND MOVE STORMS GENERALLY EAST DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THIS
SEEM PLAUSIBLE.

OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN WESTERN NEBRASKA/KANSAS IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ENTER NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.  WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN A
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD GREATLY REDUCE
RAIN/STORM CHANCES.  HOT WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE WEEKEND.
NOT SURE IF HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.

BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...MOST MODELS PUSH A SIGNIFICANT FRONT INTO
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS (AT LEAST BY JULY STANDARDS).  THE FRONT
ALONG WITH A DECENT WAVE...MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  96  73  98 /  30  10   0   0
HOBART OK         73  98  73 100 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  98  75 100 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           70  97  71  99 /  20  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     68  96  74  98 /  60  50  10   0
DURANT OK         73  94  74  96 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/23/23


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.