Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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FXZS60 NSTU 250125
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
225 PM SST SAT SEP 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL
ENHANCE INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TONIGHT. DURING
THE NEXT 18 HOURS...A LINE OF CLOUDS FROM THE SW WILL MERGE WITH AN
EXISTING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE FCST ZONES...MEANWHILE A SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF SAMOA DRIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES CLOSER TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...DRY SUBSIDENCE AIR WILL
TRIGGER WARMER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90S
DURING MONDAY. AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE WET WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOW EXPECTED
AFTER SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...
.TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE MIDWEEK. THE LATEST GFS
MODEL SOLUTIONS MATERIALIZES INCREASING RAINFALL MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS
SAMOA INTO FRIDAY AS A RESULT OF A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE
CLOSE TO THE AREA STARTING THE MIDWEEK. FOR NOW...WILL MONITOR THIS
SITUATION AND KEEP THE SHOWER COVERAGE AT ISOLATED WORDING BUT WILL
PROVIDE UPDATES AS NEW MODELS BECOME AVAILABLE. THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE
ONLY MINIMAL SHOWERS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...IT WILL A QUIET FCST PERIOD AS NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. HENCE...COMBINED SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$

CB







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