Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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FXZS60 NSTU 250116
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
216 PM SST MON APR 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A NORTH TO EAST ORIENTED SURFACE
TROUGH NEAR MANU`A WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SAMOAN
ISLANDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS IS EVIDENT VIA SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SHOWING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERY CUMULI WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE TROUGH IS LOCATED. THEREFORE...EXPECT
PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...WITH GUSTY WINDS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. BY TUESDAY...GENTLE
TO MODERATE EASTERLIES WILL PICK UP AS A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM FAR SOUTHEAST OF MANU`A DRIFTS EASTWARD.

.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUING ITS SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT ON
THURSDAY WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH FORMS NEAR MANU`A. TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST IS STALLED BY A BUILDING
RIDGE NEAR FIJI...THEN IT GETS PUSHED BACK TOWARD THE SAMOAN
ISLANDS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE TROUGH NEAR MANU`A MOVES ACROSS THE
TERRITORY BY FRIDAY AND MERGE WITH THE TROUGH GETTING PUSHED FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. SIMPLY PUT...IF MODELS PERSIST...THE LONG TERM WILL
PRIMARILY BE WET CONDITIONS WITH BOTH TROUGHS MAINTAINING AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...SINCE IT IS STILL FAR OUT
BEYOND DAY THREE...AND MODEL SKILLS ARE VERY LOW...WE WILL
MAINTAIN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM AND CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FUTURE MODEL OUTPUTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVE WATCH III MODELS SHOW SEA CONDITIONS REMAINING ABOVE
THRESHOLD LEVELS DUE TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS. WILL CONTINUE
ADVISORIES FOR HIGH SURFS AND SMALL CRAFTS UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT

&&

$$

TAIFANE/LUTU-MCMOORE





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