Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 260625
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
219 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level high pressure in place with hot and humid weather
through the weekend. Several upper level disturbances pass next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Friday...
Quiet weather on tap, with upper level high centered over the
Central Appalachians. Models trying to show a chance of an
isolated t-shower this afternoon...but with the upper high right
over us opted to keep POPs below 15. Remaining on the humid side,
with dewpoints struggling to drop below 70 across the lowlands.
Used a blend of bias-corrected ECMWF MOS and bias-corrected MAV
for lows, and a mixture of the National Blend and bias-corrected
SREF for todays high. Overall this resulted in only very minor
changes to previous forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As 220 AM Friday...

The area remains under an upper level ridge through the weekend.
There may be enough moisture to pop an afternoon shower/thunderstorm
in the mountains Saturday afternoon. By Sunday...moisture increases
a bit and can not rule out afternoon or evening convection at any
location...but chances still remain low. Deeper moisture arrives on
Monday so increased afternoon pops into the high chance category.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As 330 PM Thursday...

Stubborn high pressure continues though begins to erode as a
tropical system slides westward towards the US mainland, however,
quite a bit of model uncertainty so track of system is not well
defined. Each subsequent run has been moving the system eastward
posing less of a threat to our area. Flow turns more zonal over
our area though no appreciable weather in this period at this
time. Maintained schc to chance PoPs for the dirty ridge as it
flattens.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 AM Friday...
Relatively low confidence in fog formation early this morning.
Main aviation models all try to give everyone dense fog, but
cannot ignore persistence and pattern which are not all that
conducive to widespread fog. In the end, went with IFR at
EKN...and MVFR at other lowland sites. Do expect some 2-3kft
clouds to pop up shortly after sunrise in the mixing...but should
be scattered. Otherwise some mid level cumulus today before
becoming mostly clear again tonight. Will likely have the same fog
concerns tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of dense fog is in question overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 08/26/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR in morning river valley fog possible through the weekend...depending
on cloud cover.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ
NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...MZ


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