Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 272349
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
749 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure crosses tonight. Temperatures and dewpoints on
the increase through the end of the week. Cold front late
Saturday/Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Tuesday...

Models continue to settle Canadian high pressure directly over
the area tonight, allowing for clear skies after some afternoon
cumulus clouds, and near calm winds. This will bring ideal
radiational cooling conditions tonight. Little change to
previous thinking concerning low temperatures tonight, which
remain close to but just above record values in the major
metropolitan areas. However, record lows may be reached in the more
protected valleys by dawn Wednesday. These lows we have
forecast are actually on the low side of the vast majority of
guidance, but cannot neglect the ideal cooling scenario. In
addition, despite the dry air in place, there will likely be
some river valley fog later tonight, mainly at CRW and EKN. So,
will not get carried away with the fog given the dry air in
place.

For Wednesday, the high moves off to the east with a southerly
flow developing. Under abundant sunshine and still relatively
dry air, temperatures will rebound to around 80 degrees or so.

Forecast lows tonight are close to records in some cases:

LocationForecast low tonightRecordYear

CRW Charleston         51                    50         1988
HTS Huntington         51                    47         1915
PKB Parkerburg         50                    48         1988
EKN Elkins             43                    39         1988
BKW Beckley            49                    39         1955
CKB Clarksburg         49                    46         1927

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 305 PM Tuesday...

Slow retreat of Canadian high pressure off the coast will
translate into warming temperatures through the end of the week
with primarily dry weather, although the northwest zones will be
exposed to low chances from northern stream upper level energy.
No major changes to the forecast overall.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 305 PM Monday...

Shower and thunderstorm chances on the increase with an arriving
cold front and upper level trough spinning through the Great
Lakes. Without a clean passage of the upper low, with it only
rotating northward as oppose to eastward, the unsettled weather
will tend to linger with the front taking some time to finally
exit the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z Wednesday thru 00Z Thursday...
As of 755 PM Tuesday...

Latest satellite imagery and surface reports indicate the
diurnal clouds that developed today have begun to dissipate.
This trend should continue leaving the region with clear skies
by 03Z.

High pressure will push east across the area tonight.  Clear
skies and calm winds will result in favorable radiational
cooling. As a result, believe river valley fog should form
after 06Z with some locations, such as EKN and CRW, seeing IFR
or lower conditions from 07Z-12Z.

Once the fog dissipates on Wednesday, VFR conditions should
prevail with mostly clear skies and light southerly winds.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, but medium tonight for fog.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: River valley IFR fog later tonight may vary
from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            WED 06/28/17
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms on Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JSH/JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV



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