Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 180043
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
841 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front tonight into Friday. High pressure builds for dry
weather through Tuesday. Another cold front by mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
As of 840 PM Thursday...

Updated the forecast to better handle the showers/thunderstorms
moving across northern WV this evening.


As of 540 PM Thursday...

Line of thunderstorms is moving into western portions of the area
faster than models indicated. Have updated the forcast for early
this evening to reflect this faster timing.

As of 225 PM Thursday...

QLCS across Eastern Ohio associated with a prefrontal trough will
push into the Ohio Valley later this evening. Well out ahead of
this line we are currently seeing isolated to scattered showers
and storms across our area. Despite moist and unstable low
level profiles, drier air in the mid level has kept these cells
in check, and the severe threat with these cells is extremely
low, however they do contain brief downpours. Any severe storm
threat will be associated with the main convective line later
this evening, but this threat is still quite low, with our
Northern Ohio Counties most at risk. Here, 0-6km bulk shear will
be strongest at about 30 to 35 knots and although instability
will drops off by the time it arrives later this evening, there
may still be enough there to produce borderline severe storms.
Also, with the high PWATs, torrential rainfall will be possible
into the overnight hours.

The actual cold front will not pass the area until later
tomorrow afternoon and some weak showers and storms are
possible. Behind the front drier air moves in with high
pressure.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...

A cold front will continue its track east of the mountains Friday
night. Some chances for showers or isolated storms could remain
shortly behind the front so kept Chance Pop across WV except likely
over elevations higher than 3000 feet. The cold front will be located
far southwest of the area allowing for dry conditions Saturday
through and Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...

High pressure continues Monday through Wednesday night producing
widespread clear and dry weather. However, moisture will increase
Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the next approaching cold front. The
cold front brings better chances for showers and
thunderstorms as it crosses Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 540 PM Thursday...

Bands of showers and thunderstorms will move across the region
overnight into Friday. A cold front will then push through on
Friday, with precipitation ending behind the front. Brief IFR will
be possible with the showers and thunderstorms, and along the cold
front. Conditions will become VFR behind the cold front on Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and thunderstorms could vary.
Some fog can not be ruled out in the mountain valleys overnight.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 08/18/17
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    H    H    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    M    M

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
Dense river valley fog possible each morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...RPY/MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MPK


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