Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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862
FXUS61 KRLX 200627
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
127 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Foggy this morning. Unseasonably warm through the work week
with another weak system late Tuesday into Wednesday. A more
organized system drifts this way for Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 120 AM Monday...
Dense fog along the Ohio river this morning - issued a Dense Fog
Advisory due to the extent and intensity. Fog elsewhere, but
likely not as widespread. Fog should begin to mix and burn off
after daybreak. A warm, dry, and sunny day on tap with
temperatures topping of near 70 F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Sunday...

Anomalously warm pattern continues next week. A weak system
looks to cross Tuesday night with scattered showers. Improving
conditions on Wednesday. No cold air behind this system, so
expect the very warm air to hold.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 250 PM Sunday...

The very warm pattern to end the work week. showers and perhaps
a few storms may fire along a developing warm front Thursday. Temps
may soar well into the 70s on Friday in the warm sector, ahead
of a potent cold front set to cross Friday night. I have
continued the idea of thunder with the front. A significant
cool down is expected over the weekend with high pressure
building overhead, though still running above normal in the
temperature department.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1250 AM Monday...

Foggy with plenty of IFR overnight. VFR and mostly clear by
16Z. MVFR stratus in the northeast may inhibit fog formation
there.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Eastern extent of LIFR is questionable.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   MON 02/20/17
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    H    L    M    M    M    M    L    L    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    M    M    M    M    L    M    M    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    M    L    L    M    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    M    M    M    M    L    M    H    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L    M    H    M

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for WVZ005>011-
     013-014-017-019.
OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for OHZ066-067-
     075-076-083>087.
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/JW/30
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JW



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