Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 280805
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
305 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS MORNING...TO BRIEFLY STALL ALONG THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE
FRONT. DRIER...COLDER AIR SLOWLY BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST OH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THEN
STALL ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. FLOW WITH SHIFT FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH COOLER AIR.

A MID LEVEL WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE COLD AS IT STALLS ALONG THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS WAVE CAN PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING TO
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE...KEPT CATEGORICAL
POPS WITH THE FRONT...AND SLOWLY DECREASED THEM TO CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES TO THE 30S
TONIGHT. USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE REMAINS OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL KEEP
MOISTURE UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS AND ANOTHER REINFORCING SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY.  THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WEST TO LIKELY PRECIPITATION FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON
MONDAY.  THE FORECAST AREA BEGINS TO DRY ON ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...OTHER THAN FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  DUE TO THE COLD
AIR THAT WILL FILTER IN WITH THE SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MIXED AND MESSY DURING THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY.  BY TUESDAY
NIGHT THERE WILL ONLY BE LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  AT
THIS TIME EXPECT ONLY 1-1.5 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FROM 12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DRASTICALLY FROM CURRENT CONDITIONS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  USED A MIX OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
850MB TEMP TROUGH ENTERING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES WITH
THIS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE DOES LOOK RATHER LIMITED...SO COULD BE
NOTHING MORE THAN SOME FLAKES DRIFTING THROUGH THE AIR AS THE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN. THEN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FOR A BULK OF THE LONG
TERM BEFORE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE A POOR CONSISTENCY
RECORD THIS SEASON...SO STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST SITES BEFORE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARRIVE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. `

RADAR IMAGES SHOWING AN AREA OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS EASTERN TN AND KY MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST. EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO AFFECT BKW AROUND 08Z WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL REACH
SOUTHEAST OH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE OH RIVER TO AFFECT
PKB AND HTS AROUND 11Z. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD EAST DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND POSSIBLY STALL
ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
SCENARIO COULD KEEP IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN SITES
LONGER...PERHAPS THROUGH 21Z.

SOME GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AFTER 21Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTH...BUT MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO LINGER IN IFR OR
WORSE CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CIGS MAY VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SUN 12/28/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    H    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND LOW CIGS INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...ARJ







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