Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 102319
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
619 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Next upper trough and cold front move in Monday night, with a
stronger upper trough on Tuesday. Another cold shot arrives late
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 530 PM Sunday...
No changes necessary.

As of 155 PM Sunday...

Upper level pattern remains active with the closed upper level
low anchored over the Hudson Bay area. Another vort max within
the flow aloft will drop in from the Great Lakes over the next
few hours. Sensible weather impacts will be more low mid level
cloud cover that will bring flurries and low end chances for
measurable precipitation over the northeast mountains later
tonight after 05Z. Flow then flattens out Monday ahead of the
next system which brings a clipper system in for the short term
period. For the most part, with the exception of the
aforementioned northeast mountains tonight, the near term
forecast is dry.

Warm front aloft brings a tight temperature gradient and
increase in 850hPa temperatures Monday, so should see a recovery
in the temperatures across the southern and western zones to
mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Sunday...

Clipper digs south into Great Lakes with strengthening area of
low pressure at the surface. Associated cold front will move
across Monday night and Tuesday with cold air advection taking
place through the short term period.

Vigorous 85h thermal trough moves across in wake of front
passage. Models in general agreement that enough lift and
dendritic growth zone will be in place to allow for a decent
mountain snow event Tuesday into Wednesday. Bumped snow amounts
up slightly for the eastern mountains, while leaving lighter
snow amounts for the low lands. Expect to see some advisories
needed for the eastern mountains as timeframe approaches for
favored upslope areas. Surface gradients will be in place
Wednesday morning for near or below zero wind chill values over
the mountains. Other areas should see calm enough morning winds
in a decoupled nocturnal boundary layer where wind chill will
not be much concern. Thermal trough axis begins to shift
eastward late Wednesday. Trimmed max and min temp values from
model blends, keeping closer values with the inherited forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 PM Sunday...

Upper trough swings east with forecast guidance diverging after
the middle of the week. In long term period made minimal
adjustments to the model blend for days 5 through 7. Any precip
we do receive this time period will likely be all snow as the
models at least agree that the cold air remains in place through
the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z Monday through 00Z Tuesday...

As of 615 PM Sunday...

Mainly VFR conditions. Although a quick moving shortwave across
the northeast may provide light snow showers, and local MVFR
cigs, mainly affecting sites KPKB, KCKB and KEKN. Winds
overnight will become gusty, particularly across the higher
terrain as the shortwave passes. Expect southwesterly winds,
with gusts in the teen to lower 20 kt range across mountains.
Winds will decrease in intensity after 12Z Monday, along with a
gradual improvement to VFR area wide.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and development of MVFR tonight may
vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EST 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
Another wave Monday night through Tuesday is forecast to have
similar, squally snow showers producing IFR conditions, favoring
the mountain terminals. IFR in snow possible on Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPK/26
NEAR TERM...SL/26
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...SL


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