Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 250234 CCA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1020 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS...UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES...WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGES IN THE LATE EVENING UPDATED...AS WE RESIDE IN THE
LAST OF THE DRY AIR OVERNIGHT.

VAD WINDS AROUND 02Z BLOWING AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT 925 MB LEVEL.
SHOULD MAINTAIN A S AND SE BREEZING ON HILLTOPS AND RIDGES THROUGH
THE NIGHT...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW. SOME
VALLEYS IN WV AND SW VA HAVE STILL DECOUPLED WITH CALM WINDS AT
02Z. YET...COULD NOT RULE OUT THE WIND MIXING DOWN INTO SOME OF
THOSE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...SINCE 925 MB MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY. SO
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE TOUGH.

FIGURING DISTURNACE NEAR BNA AT 02Z WILL WEAKEN...MAY BE SOME MID
DECK BY DAWN IN THE HTS TRI STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN AS 5H RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS LEAVES SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WITH
A TRANSITION TO A WARM MOIST AIRMASS AS FLOW OPENS UP FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO. WILL SEE A GRADUAL UPSWING IN CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIPPLE THROUGH THE SW FLOW...WITH
ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH GENERALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN
PLACE...WILL CARRY CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHT HOURS...AS WAS IN
INHERITED FORECAST. NO REAL CHANGES IN THE OFFING FOR FCST
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODELS SHOW GREAT LAKES TROUGH DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO
5H RIDGE...HELPING TO KNOCK IT DOWN MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX...THIS GENERALLY MEANS A WARM AND WET
SCENARIO...WITH A DIRTY RIDGE...BECOMING A REALLY DIRTY RIDGE...THAT
IS EVEN MORE WASHED OUT. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH CARRIES
GREATER AND MORE BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAST OF THE DRY/CLEAN AIR TO START OFF WITH.

HAVE JUST PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AOA 10 THSD FT AGL
INCREASING 06Z TO 12Z MONDAY. BREEZE STIRRING THROUGH THE NIGHT
ACROSS HILL TOPS AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU INCLUDING KBKW.

FIGURING CU DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES AND MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES AFTER 15Z MONDAY AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT AGL...BUT MAY BE A
RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CU COVERAGE CKB-CRW UNTIL AFTER 21Z.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z MONDAY IN EEASTERN
KENTUCKY...AND HTS VCNTY WITH CEILINGS AROUND 3 TO 4 THSD FT AND
VSBY NEAR 3 MILES...LIFTING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO SE OHIO
AROUND 00Z TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

.AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/KTB/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...KTB


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