Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 262352
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
752 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak disturbances aloft on backside of an upper level ridge. Slow
moving convection with heavy downpours Friday/Saturday. Southeast
flow may raise shower chance late Sunday into Monday mainly
mountains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Most convection associated with a line of storms missed our area
to the south and west. HRRR suggests redevelopment in SE OH as low
level convergence fires along cold pool boundary. Not completely
sold on this...but will leave pops in for this possibility
overnight.

Another warm and muggy night is on tap
again...with dew points in the 60s. May see a little more fog
formation tonight than last night...particularly in any areas that
receive rain.

Friday looks to be another hot and muggy day as upper ridge
rebuilds across the eastern U.S. No significant waves are expected
to move into the area...and thinking that best chance for showers
and thunderstorms will be across the mountains due to differential
heating. Did add in slight chance to chance across parts of the
lowlands Friday afternoon and evening in case anything moves off
the mountains in the southeasterly flow. One thing to note...is
the overall flow is very light...less than 5kts through the
profile...and expect little movement with the storms. Thus...with
the high moisture content of the air...storms will be heavy
dumpers...and could cause quick rises on area streams and creeks
and water issues in low lying spots. This is something that will
need to be monitored.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Summer pattern for the Memorial Day Weekend in deep layer south
to southeast flow. Expecting late day mainly elevated heat source
thunderstorms that may come out of the mountains in the evening,
before dying overnight.

Sunday finds a better surge of moisture in the south to southeast
flow, with what is left of a possible sub-tropical system coming
ashore along the Carolina coast. Thus have higher chance pops
that persist overnight into Monday morning.

With the light flow, persistent downpours are possible.

Guidance came in a little lower especially southeast portion of
the area on highs Sunday on account of the system arriving from
the Carolinas. Otherwise no major changes to the temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Whatever is left of a system that moves through later in the short
term moves out Monday, leaving very humid conditions in its wake,
and a nearly anytime chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Otherwise upper level ridging rebuilds for a dog day summer
pattern through the middle of next week, with diurnally driven
thunderstorms.

An upper level low is progged to roll across southern Canada next
week. It may get close enough to drive a cold front toward the
area Day 7 night, so have chance pops Persisting next Thursday
night.

Trended temperatures, mainly highs, down a bit per national
guidance in this dirty ridge pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions with light surface winds this evening.

Overnight...patchy MVFR and IFR valley fog developing generally
after 07Z...with VFR conditions returning with light surface winds
after 13Z. Isold convection possible again towards end of TAF
period across mountains.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: More convection may develop overnight than
currently forecast. Fog may not form overnight...particularly if
little clearing of cloud deck occurs.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 05/27/16
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The river gauge...and forecast point...at the South Side Bridge
in downtown Charleston has not be reading correctly. The NWS
hydrologist is working to correct this problem.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JW

HYDROLOGY...



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