Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 290241
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1041 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...

NO CHANGES. ISOLATE SHRA IN COAL FIELDS WILL DIE OFF SOON.

700 PM UPDATE...

FINESSED SKY GRIDS OVERNIGHT. LINE OF SHRA MOVING THRU I64
CORRIDOR CURRENTLY AHEAD OF A SMALL VORT LOBE. CARRIED SOME SMALL
POPS UNTIL ABOUT 06Z. FOG FCST TOUGH TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE
QUITE A BIT MOISTURE IN THE H9 TO H85 LYR PIVOTING DOWN INTO SE OH
AND W WV LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO REFORM
ASSUMING PARTIAL CLEARING THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
POST FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT HAS
ALLOWED ISOLD SPRINKLES TO FIRE OFF. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LTG THUS
FAR THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING DECREASES...THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD SLACKEN OFF...ESPECIALLY AS FURTHER DRYING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES. MAIN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL REMAIN
IN PLAY ON TUESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DRY DAY PRECIP-WISE AS
COOL AND DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN. FOR TEMPS...WILL GO WITH BIAS
CORRECTED DATA WITH A BLEND TOWARDS PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS
WHICH LEADS TO ONLY A MINOR TWEAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AS IT PASSES. COOL
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS A SYSTEM LIFTS UP FROM THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE
AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEK.

USED AND BLEND OF MODEL AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BAND OF SHRA MOVING THRU I64 CORRIDOR AFFECTING KHTS/KCRW THRU
01Z AND PERHAPS KBKW. HAVE SOME TEMPO MVFR SHRA FOR THOSE TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. TOUGH FG FCST
OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS TRYING TO REFORM CLOUDS...PERHAPS MVFR
STRATOCU...ACROSS SE OH AND W WV WHICH WOULD MITIGATE DENSE FG FOR
KHTS/KPKB. BELIEVE ENOUGH HOLES IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT FOR SOME LATE
DENSE FG DEVELOPMENT FOR KEKN/KCRW WITH MAINLY MVFR FG KCKB/KBKW

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON TUESDAY WITH A SCT TO BKN 4 TO 6 THSD
FT STRATOCU.

SFC WINDS SLACKEN OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY 5 TO 10 KT WINDS ON
TUESDAY OUT OF THE NW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING MAY VARY ALONG WITH TIMING OF
MORNING IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  TUE 07/29/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L    L    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC/30
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...30








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