Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 220546
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
138 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH OCCASIONAL
DOWNPOURS...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDE SE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO
NOSE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
03Z UPDATE...INCREASED POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS FROM INDIANA.

02Z UPDATE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EASTERN KY, SOUTHWESTEN WV,
AND DICKENSON AND BUCHANAN COUNTIES IN VA. A STORM COMPLEX WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING. THIS
COMPLEX WILL PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAIN. SHOULD THE RAIN FALL OVER
THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED EARLIER RAIN...FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO OSCILLATE NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE THE
AREA TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE AREA...HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AND A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME THUNDER. PROFILES ARE
SOGGY WITH PWATS HOVERING NEAR 2 INCHES SO EXPECT ANY STORMS THAT
FORM TO HAVE HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN
HAS FALLEN AND IN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL BEGIN TO SEE A DRIER REGIME AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO AREA.
STILL HAVE SOME SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH ONLY
SMALL CHANCES ON SUNDAY. TEMPS BLENDED IN FROM CONSENSUS AND
INHERITED NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO AREA BUT THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT
SHOULD STAY W OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL BE CONTENDING
WITH THE MUGGIES WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL TO PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE. A FRONT APPROACHES LONG ABOUT THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH 06Z TO 12Z WITH LOCALIZED
DOWNPOURS AND IFR VSBY AND CEILING.  OTHER DISTURBANCES IN ITS WAKE
WILL RIDE SE AND MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS DURING THE
MORNING...FIGURING MORE IN SOUTHERN OHIO INTO WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA
FOR THE 12Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

CEILINGS BECOMING MAINLY 2 TO 3 THSD FT BKN WITH LAYERS AND VSBY 5
TO 6 MILES IN HAZE AFTER ABOUT 16Z.  YET...ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY...INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AGAIN WITH IFR
VSBY AND CEILINGS.

MVFR VSBY LIKELY 03Z TO 06Z SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS WANING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DURATION AND TIMING ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WILL
VARY. AT LEAST SOME AREAS OF PCPN MAY EVEN LINGER LONGER FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT NOT MENTIONED IN TAFS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 08/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LOW STRATUS IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE 06Z TO AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR WVZ005-024-025-033-034.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...LS
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KTB









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