Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 040526
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
126 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AREA TONIGHT...THEN TO OUR EAST ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
815 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED HIGHER POPS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT TO
MAINLY FOLLOW THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM. FRONT AT 8 PM
BASICALLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...SO BEST POPS ARE TO THE EAST.
FRONT REACHES MOUNTAINS BY 10Z...BUT CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY
DECREASING BY 06Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BAGGY SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVING THRU KY THIS AFTN. CONVECTION HAS
FIRED AHEAD OF DECAYING MCV CROSSING SW VA. THIS BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION EXTENDS NW INTO SE OH AS OF 18Z. SOME GOOD DUMPERS OVER
KANAWHA VALLEY THE NEXT FEW HRS...WITH AREAS FURTHER N GETTING IN
ON THE ACTION LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. ONCE THE LOW TRACKS ALONG OH
RIVER THIS EVE...EXPECT BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TO DEPART WITH
IT...LEAVING MUCH LESS COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA.
STILL...WITH THE UPR TROF YET TO CROSS AND THE SFC BOUNDARY
LINGERING...WAS HESITANT ON LETTING E EXTENT OF THE WATCH GO AT
00Z. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...EXTENDED TO 12Z WHILE
LETTING W PORTION OF THE WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. IT IS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLY EVEN THE E PART OF THE WATCH CAN BE LET GO BEFORE 12Z.

THINK LOW STRATUS WILL SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY AREAS OF
DENSE FOG IN THIS MOIST LOW FLOW ENVIRONMENT. DRIER AIR WILL BE
ADVECTING INTO SE OH NEAR DAWN...BUT WILL BE STUBBORN TO MAKE MUCH
FURTHER SE PROGRESS UNTIL MIDDAY. AS SUCH...HELD THE LOW CLOUDS E
OF THE OH RIVER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...CLOSER TO THE OLD BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT MOVE SOUTH AND STALLS ALONG THE WV/KY BORDER BY 00Z
SUNDAY.  THE NAM/ECMWF/GFS/CMC MODELS BRING DRIER AIR AT ALL LEVELS
SUGGESTING CLEARING SKIES SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL WV
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALSO SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ABOUT 5 KNOTS
FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AROUND PKB
SOUTH AND EAST TO CRW AND CKB AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND FOG DEVELOPING
ALONG RIVER VALLEYS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY MORNING. KEPT
CLOUDS AND LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CAN GET TRAPPED OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHERE WILL BE CLOSER TO AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
OF THE AREA. ANY PCPN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
WHILE A SHORT WAVE AT H500 MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WAVE
WILL BRING CHANCE POPS BACK NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN FURTHER NORTH THROUGH
MONDAY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WENT WITH A BLEND OF NAM AND SREF FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GENERALLY...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S LOWLANDS RANGING
INTO THE MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL WILL BE IN THE MID
TO LOW 60S...EXCEPT INT HE UPPER 50S OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY KEEPING LOW
CHANCE POPS AS WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY. ANY PCPN
WOULD BE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE MAXIMUM HEATING.
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME STRONG.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR
NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SLOWLY MOVING SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS WV. IN THE SHOWERS
ACTUALLY SEEING BETTER FLIGHT CONDITIONS THAN ELSEWHERE...AS
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS DENSE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS FORM QUICKLY.
WEAK BOUNDARY ALSO DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS CWA...WITH IFR CIGS
ALONG AND BEHIND IT. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR TO SETTLE INTO TO ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH EARLY MORNING...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT INTO MID
MORNING. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY
VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ015-016-
     024>027-033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ


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