Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 041159
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
559 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS
THE DISTRICTS THROUGHOUT TODAY...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES. EXPECT REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUET TO
VSBYS/CIGS...AS RAINFALL BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PD...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AT A FEW
SITES. OTHERWISE...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY AS WELL...SHIFTING OUR WINDS OUT OF THE N AT
12-18 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT ALONG INTERSTATE 20 REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THIS
MORNING. PATCHY DENSE FOG NOTED NORTH OF THE FRONT WHERE
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...VISIBILITIES ARE MUCH HIGHER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S. RAINFALL BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 20 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
AREAWIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS
FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 9 AM THURSDAY MORNING.

ISENTROPIC FORCING ABOVE COLD AIRMASS TO ALLOW FOR LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. RAIN TO TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA DURING THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE BECOMING SLEET AND SNOW BY MIDNIGHT. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS
OF FREEZING RAIN COULD BE UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE INCH. WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED WINTER
STORM WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THESE AREAS. ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN WITH A MIX OF SLEET DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BECAUSE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN THOSE AREAS IN THE
WINTER STORM WARNING...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
NO HIGHER THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

WINTER PRECIP TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN
BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BARELY BREAK ABOVE FREEZING ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED
TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  32  37  23  44  30 /  90  40  10  10  10
MLU  31  34  20  40  26 /  90  50  10  10  10
DEQ  28  39  19  45  26 /  90  10  10  10  10
TXK  27  36  20  40  27 /  90  20  10  10  10
ELD  28  34  18  39  24 /  90  40  10  10  10
TYR  30  37  23  45  32 /  90  20  10  10  10
GGG  31  38  23  44  31 /  90  30  10  10  10
LFK  34  41  26  50  34 /  90  40  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>006-014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ010>013-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-138.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     TXZ136-137-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

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