Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 260259
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
959 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure over E AR is sprawling over the entire area with
calm winds dropping temps early in LA and still light E winds down
I-20 into E TX with low to mid 70s. Overall cooler than average
low to mid 60s overnight with no changes to going forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 712 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017/

AVIATION...
For the 26/00Z TAF period, VFR conditions are expected at all TAF
sites with cu field along and south of I-20 gradually diminishing
this evening. Some mid and high clouds may linger overnight, but
more should ease into the region later in the period and cu field
will return on Monday afternoon at most terminal sites. Otherwise,
light easterly winds to prevail averaging around 5 kts throughout
the period.

/19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A band of showers along Interstate 20 in North Central Louisiana
continue to exit the area as an upper trough axis moves east of
the region. This will leave rain chances confined mainly to our
farther southern zones of Deep East Texas and points eastward as
convection along a weak frontal boundary near the Gulf coast
drifts northward towards the area. Convective coverage will
gradually decrease through the night. However, redevelopment is
likely during the day Monday, and rain chances will generally rain
across Deep East Texas and Central Louisiana. Otherwise, daytime
high temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 80s to near 90
degrees F. Similar conditions can be expected for Tuesday and
Wednesday, but rain chances may be a little bit higher and farther
north across the area as an upper trough axis dives southeast
across the region. A weak upper low in the northwest Gulf of
Mexico will allow for continued chances for showers and
thunderstorms, especially south of Interstate 20 Tuesday through
Friday. The highest chances for rain each day will generally be
during peak daytime heating.

Beginning Friday, lee cyclogenesis across the High Plains of West
Texas will result in a return of strong low-level southerly flow
and allow Gulf moisture to stream northward. Any surface fronts or
a dryline are expected to remain well north and west of the
region. However, medium range models suggest thunderstorm
complexes may form along these boundaries and be steered toward
our area by the west-northwest flow aloft. This type of pattern
tends to keep the best rain chances across the northern portions
of the area, roughly north of a line from Mineola, TX, to Colfax,
LA.

With no sources of significant, long-duration wetting rains in the
forecast, temperatures will gradually warm into the low 90s across
most of the area during the next week. However, the recent rains
over the last couple of weeks and additional chances for rain will
help to keep temperatures very near or a couple of degrees below
climo.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  87  69  90 /  10  10  10  20
MLU  65  87  67  89 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  62  86  65  89 /   0  10  10  10
TXK  63  85  67  88 /   0  10  10  10
ELD  63  86  65  89 /   0  10  10  10
TYR  68  86  71  89 /  10  10  10  40
GGG  66  86  69  89 /  10  10  10  30
LFK  69  87  70  90 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/19



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