Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 081640
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1040 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
UNUSUALLY STRONG NWLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS A RESULT OF A VERY STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PRESENT
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. HAVE LOOKED CLOSELY AT THE WIND FCST THIS
MORNING WITH THE IDEA OF POSSIBLY CHANGING THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
TO A WIND ADVISORY. IT DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD REACH
INTO THE 30-40 MPH SUSTAINED RANGE IN A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS FOR A
SHORT TIME...BUT UNLIKELY THAT WE WOULD SEE THIS AREAWIDE FOR A
PERIOD OF A FEW HOURS. THAT SAID...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LAKE
WIND ADVISORY. HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND GRIDS...AS
WELL AS MAX TEMP GRIDS TO BETTER REPRESENT CURRENT OBS. NO OTHER
CHANGES EXPECTED ATTM. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIODS.
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 16-22KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS TODAY. WINDS TO BECOME WEST AND DIMINISH TO 5-10KTS
AFTER 09/00Z. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

.DISCUSSION...
STG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF I-20 AND SHOULD MOVE WELL
OFFSHORE BY THIS AFTN. VERY DRY AIRMASS COMBINED WITH DOWNWARD
MIXING OF VERY STG WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN 2000 FT WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...GUSTING TO NEAR THESE VALUES AT SFC THIS AFTN. LWA
AREAWIDE 6 AM TO 6 PM TODAY...WITH WINDS ALREADY NEAR CRITERIA
NORTH OF I-20. UPPED WIND SPEEDS TO KEEP THEM JUST BELOW CRITERIA
FOR ACTUAL WIND ADVISORY WITH WIND SPEEDS FALLING JUST BELOW
CRITERIA AFTER 6 PM. THESE WINDS SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED THIS
AFTN FOR ANY POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO WIND ADVISORY AND OR EXTENTION OF
LWA BEYOND 6 PM. HAVE TAILORED DIURNAL TEMP CURVE FOR TODAY AS
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESULTED IN TEMPS
RISING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. THAT SAID...EXPECT AFTN HIGHS AROUND 50
NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH TO HOLD. DEPTH OF THIS COLD AIR
MASS...DEPICTED BY NW WINDS IN UPPER LVLS APPROACHING 150 KTS...
WITH NW WINDS ALSO BECMG GUSTY TUE AFTN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH A WEAKER BACKDOOR FRONT
REINFORCING AIRMASS TUESDAY AFTN.

TEMPS TO MODERATE BY THURSDAY AS SW WINDS PICK UP ACROSS AREA. DRY
FCST TO CONTINUE THRU WKND WITH LIMITED RETURN FLOW...AND WHAT
MEAGER MOISTURE DOES ARRIVE WITH FAST MOVG UPPER SYSTEM SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE CHIEFLY IN THE UPPER LVLS. THUS...ANY
RAIN CHANCES DURG THAT TIME PERIOD WILL BE BOTH LIGHT AND
BRIEF. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  55  32  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  54  30  52  31 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  51  25  51  24 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  51  30  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  50  29  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  55  32  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  55  32  56  34 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  56  30  60  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

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