Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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829
FXUS64 KSHV 190459
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1059 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

.AVIATION...
Difficult forecast for area terminals over the next 24 hours as
our eastern most locations will experience one more period of rain
towards sunrise on Thu and through the day Thu before an upper
level trough moves ovhd and sweeps all of the precipitation to the
east. Otherwise...short term problems include the development of
patchy dense fog across area terminal locations attm and just how
long will this fog hang around is anyone`s guess. Latest 00z NAM
output has a better handle on the fog development currently
compared to its previous run but given upstream observations
currently at or above 3 miles or so doesn`t lead to much
confidence in dense fog remaining sustained for any real length of
time overnight. VLIFR/LIFR/IFR ceilings will give way to MVFR
ceilings by late morning and into the afternoon with a few
terminals possibly losing their low cloud cover altogether by late
afternoon into the evening hours but this may be temporary as MVFR
ceilings may redevelop across the region just prior to the end of
the 06z taf cycle.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1013 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017/

UPDATE...
To restructure pops/weather and add some fog. New 00z Nam winds.

DISCUSSION...
Mid to upper 40s North and we are mostly ranging through the
lower to mid 50s at this hour. Light Northerly winds and nearly
steady temperatures are expected with current saturation and
patchy fog...briefly dense at times...will linger all night and
likely into the early morning rush. We have light Northerly winds
from Lufkin to El Dorado with calm winds and fog developing where
rain has recently ended Eastern areas. KSHV Radar does show some
light rain and drizzle too along with models keeping most QPF
light for us overnight. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  71  56  75 /  60  40  10  10
MLU  54  70  56  75 /  60  60  10  10
DEQ  48  65  48  68 /  30  10  10  10
TXK  49  65  54  71 /  30  20  10  10
ELD  49  66  53  73 /  60  50  10  10
TYR  50  71  54  74 /  20  20   0  10
GGG  52  71  55  74 /  30  20  10  10
LFK  55  73  56  76 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/13



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