Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 160954
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
354 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Upper low over AZ/Mex border closing off, providing a temporary
reduction of clouds streaming into area. Daytime temps will
rebound well from overnight lows around frzg, reaching the mid to
upper 50s across most of trhe area. Closing low will shift
southern stream further south, which will then curl back into area
later today in deep sw flow. Rapidly deepening mid lvl moisture
will begin to lower with showers beginning to develop in East TX
Lakes area by mid aftn today, and spreading north and east durg
the eve. Rainfall may be heavy at times overnight with increased
upper diffluence and saturating columns. A few embedded tstms
possible across southern portions of area as shear becomes quite
strong, especially in low lvls. this initial wave will move
quickly across the area Sunday. Models bringing next stg shortwave
in southern stream flow a little further north, and as a result
have increased pops for area late Monday into early Wed. Again,
embedded tstms possible across mainly southern portions of area.
Model solutions in extended in poor agreement and thus low
confidence in fcst. GFS indicating possible winter wx for at least
northern portions of the area, but ECMWF coming in warmer and
drier in upcoming wknd. Splitting difference and leaving mostly
chance pops. Have adjusted overnight lows slightly to keep temps
just above frzg where overrunning moisture is seen, as do not wish
to introduce winter wx just yet in extended, until models decide
to come into better agreement./07/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  57  44  66  51 /  20  90  20  10
MLU  58  44  65  53 /  10  90  50  30
DEQ  58  43  58  45 /  10  80  10  10
TXK  57  43  60  48 /  10  90  20  10
ELD  58  42  64  49 /  10  90  30  10
TYR  56  45  65  51 /  30  90  10  10
GGG  58  45  65  51 /  20  90  10  10
LFK  56  45  67  55 /  30  90  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$


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