Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 210359
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
959 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
CHANGES ALL AROUND WITH SKY...TEMPS...WEATHER AND WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CLEARING LINE EXTENDS MORE OR LESS ALONG I-30 AND HAS BEEN
EDGING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THE KSHV VAD IS SHOWING MORE
SHALLOW NORTHEAST FLOW AS COMPARED TO OUR 00Z BALLOON SOUNDING TO
3KFT...THE VAD IS E/SE NOW AT 2 AND 3KFT RESPECTIVELY. AS SKIES
ARE CLEARING TEMPS AND DEW POINTS ARE FALLING WITH SOME OBS NEAR
FORECAST LOWS. DIFFICULT TO SEE POTENTIAL FOR FOG GOING AWAY WITH
ALREADY SOME 2 TO 4 REPORTS AT MARSHALL AND MINDEN. LOTS OF OTHER
SITES WITH 5 AND 6 MILE OBSCURATIONS. WENT WITH PATCHY NOW AND
AREAS OF DENSE 06-12Z.

SOME OF THE FOUR STATE AREA DRIED OUT A BIT WITH SUNSHINE...BUT
OTHER LOCALES ESPECIALLY WEST STILL HAVE GOOD SOURCE REGIONS FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT WITH FRESHLY DAMP SOIL. FOR THIS UPDATE WE HAVE
LOADED IN NEW NAM WINDS AND LAPS TO CURRENT WITH CALM TO LESS
THAN 3 KNOTS FOR MANY. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE OF CONDITIONS AS ANY
DENSE WIDESPREAD FOG WILL REQUIRE ANOTHER UPDATE OVERNIGHT IF
EARLY OR PERHAPS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERESTING TO NOTE...THE NEW NAM IS SHOWING OVERCAST WITH NOT TOO
BAD VISIBILITY FOR SOME SITES...BUT 1 MILE AT OTHERS...SO THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY THAT FOG MAY FORM AND SLOWLY LIFT TO FORM A LOW CLOUD
DECK PRIMARILY AT A STEEP INVERSION AT 1.5KFT SHOWN ON OUR
SOUNDING AN PERHAPS JUST END UP BEING MORE CLOUDS THAN
FOG...THEREFORE BOTH OF THESE ELEMENTS ARE IN THE FORECAST IN
LIGHT OF THIS UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

AVIATION...
A 50NM WIDE AREA OF STRATUS OVER EXTREME ERN TX/WRN LA BETWEEN ASL
AND MNE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ERODING FROM THE NNE...AND
SHOULD CLEAR THE SHV TERMINAL BY 00-02Z. OTHER MVFR CIGS SHOULD
LINGER THOUGH OVER E TX ALONG/S OF I-20...BUT THESE CIGS MAY
LOWER/BECOME LOW MVFR/IFR AFTER 06Z AS THE LOWER STRATUS OVER WRN
LA SPREADS W. MEANWHILE...LOW VFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT
ALONG/N OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SW AR...CLOSER TO THE LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE. AM CONCERNED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY DENSE FG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT OVER WRN LA/EXTREME ERN
TX ONCE THE LOW STRATUS CLEARS THESE AREAS...THUS HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION FOR THE SHV/GGG TAFS. GIVEN THE WEAK SFC WINDS IN
PLACE...THE FG/LOW CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT SUNDAY...NOT DOING SO
UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING. MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS LOOK TO PREVAIL AFTER
18Z ACROSS E TX/SE OK ONCE A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COMMENCES...WITH
NO AVIATION CONCERNS EXPECTED FARTHER E OVER SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL LA.
LT/VRB WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SSE 4-8KTS AFTER 16Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER AND TEMP PATTERN TODAY WILL MAKE FOR POSSIBLE ERRATIC
FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINT SPREADS NARROW TO THE NORTH OF
I-30...WHILE ERODING CLOUDS FROM THE EAST MIGHT ALSO MAKE FOR GOOD
RADIATION COOLING OVERNIGHT. GROUND STILL DAMP MOST OF
REGION....BUT LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. FOG
COULD BE DENSE...OR NOT AT ALL...SO WILL SIMPLY GO PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE.
WARMING TREND NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW...POSSIBLY EVEN APPROACHING LWA CRITERIA MONDAY
AFTN AS UPPER TROUGH MOVG EASTWARD TOWARDS AREA BEGINS TO DEEPEN.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY...INSTABILITY WILL BE IN QUESTION AND
WILL SEE A MIX OF STRATIFORM AND CONVECTION....WITH ANY TSTMS
MOST LIKELY NEAR FROPA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND
CONFINED TO REGIONS SOUTH OF I-20.

MOST OF AREA WILL BE SPARED FROM FRZG TEMP BEHIND THIS FRONT...AS
GFS INDICATES DEFINED WRAPAROUND CLOUDS MOVG BACK IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME PORTIONS OF SE OK/SW AR MAY DIP TO JUST
AROUND FRZG MARK. A QUICK TURAROUND TO SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO SEASONALLY WARM.
HOWEVER...AN EVEN STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  52  37  59  45  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  54  37  58  44  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  50  37  55  42  62 /  10  10  10  10  20
TXK  50  38  56  44  63 /  10  10  10  10  20
ELD  50  34  57  43  60 /  10  10  10  10  20
TYR  51  40  59  46  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  52  36  59  45  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
LFK  54  41  61  46  69 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15





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