Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
000
FXXX10 KWNP 220033
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Sep 22 0031 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 22-Sep 24 2017 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 22-Sep 24 2017

            Sep 22     Sep 23     Sep 24
00-03UT        2          2          3
03-06UT        1          2          2
06-09UT        1          2          1
09-12UT        1          1          1
12-15UT        1          1          1
15-18UT        1          2          4
18-21UT        2          2          3
21-00UT        2          3          4

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.
Quiet to active levels are expected on day three (24 Sep) with the
arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 22-Sep 24 2017

              Sep 22  Sep 23  Sep 24
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 22-Sep 24 2017

              Sep 22        Sep 23        Sep 24
R1-R2            1%           15%           15%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  By
days two and three (23-24 Sep), solar activity is expected to increase
to low levels with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares
with the return of old Region 2673 (S09, L=119).


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.