Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 191231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Feb 19 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 19-Feb 21 2017 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 19-Feb 21 2017

            Feb 19     Feb 20     Feb 21
00-03UT        3          3          3
03-06UT        3          3          3
06-09UT        2          3          2
09-12UT        1          2          2
12-15UT        4          2          3
15-18UT        3          2          3
18-21UT        2          2          3
21-00UT        3          2          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 19-Feb 21 2017

              Feb 19  Feb 20  Feb 21
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 19-Feb 21 2017

              Feb 19        Feb 20        Feb 21
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.



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