Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 221231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Sep 22 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 22-Sep 24 2014 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 22-Sep 24 2014

            Sep 22     Sep 23     Sep 24
00-03UT        2          2          2
03-06UT        3          1          2
06-09UT        2          1          2
09-12UT        2          1          2
12-15UT        3          1          1
15-18UT        2          2          2
18-21UT        1          3          2
21-00UT        2          3          3

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 22-Sep 24 2014

              Sep 22  Sep 23  Sep 24
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 22-Sep 24 2014

              Sep 22        Sep 23        Sep 24
R1-R2           35%           35%           35%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: A chance for (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts and a
slight chance for (R3-Strong or greater) radio blackouts exists for the
next three days (22-24 Sep).  Region 2172 is the most likely source for
significant flare production.


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