Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
000
FXXX10 KWNP 301230
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 Aug 30 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 30-Sep 01 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 30-Sep 01 2015

            Aug 30     Aug 31     Sep 01
00-03UT        2          3          2
03-06UT        1          3          1
06-09UT        2          2          1
09-12UT        1          1          2
12-15UT        2          1          3
15-18UT        2          2          4
18-21UT        1          2          5 (G1)
21-00UT        2          2          5 (G1)

Rationale: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels from
day one (30 Aug) through midday on day three (01 Sep) as CH HSS effects
diminish. By mid to late on day three, a solar sector boundary crossing
in advance of a co-rotating interaction region will precede an
equatorial, positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream. As a
result, field conditions are expected to increase to unsettled to minor
storm (G1-Minor) levels.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 30-Sep 01 2015

              Aug 30  Aug 31  Sep 01
S1 or greater   10%      5%      1%

Rationale: A slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event
(S1-Minor) exists on day one (30 Aug) due to flare potential from Region
2403. The chance for an event decreases on days two and three (31
Aug-01 Sep) as Region 2403 rotates around the SW limb.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Aug 30 2015 0330 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 30-Sep 01 2015

              Aug 30        Aug 31        Sep 01
R1-R2           55%           40%            5%
R3 or greater   10%            5%            1%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to decrease over the forecast
period as Region 2403 transits further beyond the SW limb. On day one
(30 Aug), solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for an isolated X-class (R3-Strong
or greater) flare. Activity is expected to decrease on day two (31 Aug)
to low levels with a chance for an M-class flare. A further decrease to
a chance for C-class flares is expected by day three (01 Sep).



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.