Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 010031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 Mar 01 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 01-Mar 03 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 01-Mar 03 2015

            Mar 01     Mar 02     Mar 03
00-03UT        5 (G1)     5 (G1)     4
03-06UT        4          4          3
06-09UT        3          3          3
09-12UT        3          3          3
12-15UT        3          3          3
15-18UT        3          3          3
18-21UT        4          3          3
21-00UT        4          4          4

Rationale: Periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely
over the next two days (01-02 Mar) due to coronal hole high speed
stream effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 01-Mar 03 2015

              Mar 01  Mar 02  Mar 03
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 01-Mar 03 2015

              Mar 01        Mar 02        Mar 03
R1-R2           10%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.



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