Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 010030
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 Jul 01 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 01-Jul 03 2015 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 01-Jul 03 2015

            Jul 01     Jul 02     Jul 03
00-03UT        2          2          2
03-06UT        2          1          1
06-09UT        2          1          1
09-12UT        3          1          1
12-15UT        2          1          1
15-18UT        2          1          1
18-21UT        2          2          2
21-00UT        2          2          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. The
geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on days one through
three (01-03 Jul), however, isolated periods of unsettled activity are
possible on day one (01 Jul) in response to an Earth connection with a
small positive polarity coronal hole.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 01-Jul 03 2015

              Jul 01  Jul 02  Jul 03
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 01-Jul 03 2015

              Jul 01        Jul 02        Jul 03
R1-R2           10%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts on days one through three (01-03 Jul) primarily due to the
flare potential of Region 2376.



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