Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FGUS73 KEAX 151629
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MOC001-003-005-021-033-037-041-047-053-061-075-079-083-087-089-095-
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Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1029 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

...2018 Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1...

This Spring Flood Outlook is for the Kansas City/Pleasant Hill
Hydrologic Service Area (HSA) which includes the Kansas River,
Missouri River, and their tributaries, in northeast Kansas and
northern Missouri.

...There is a normal to below normal probability of flooding along
area streams and rivers this spring...

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  02/17/2018  - 05/18/2018

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Delaware River
Muscotah            27.0   28.0   36.0 :  18   26   15   19   <5   <5
:Stranger Creek
Easton              17.0   18.0   23.0 :  63   77   55   71   <5   <5
Tonganoxie          23.0   30.0   35.0 :  32   43   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Kansas River
De Soto             26.0   33.0   36.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Tarkio River
Fairfax             17.0   18.0   25.0 :  57   67   50   65   29   45
:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti   23.0   28.0   35.0 :   8   15   <5   <5   <5   <5
:102 River
Maryville           18.0   23.0   28.0 :  13   45    5    7   <5   <5
Rosendale           18.0   18.1   23.0 :  15   45   15   45   <5   <5
:Platte River
Agency              20.0   25.0   30.0 :  66   77   43   63   <5    8
:Little Platte River
Smithville          27.0   30.5   35.0 :  <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Platte River
Sharps Station      26.0   29.0   33.0 :  52   79   16   57   <5    5
Platte City         20.0   25.0   29.0 :  51   78    9   22   <5   <5
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev   35.0   39.0   48.0 :   5   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
Bannister Road      34.0   40.0   42.0 :  <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
71 Highway          61.0   66.0   68.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
63rd Street         48.0   53.0   55.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Colorado Avenue     56.0   61.0   67.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Stadium Drive       33.0   39.0   43.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
40 Highway          30.0   35.0   40.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
17th Street         24.0   25.0   27.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
12th Street         30.0   35.0   40.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Little Blue River
Lake City           18.0   25.0   27.0 :  10   22   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Crooked River
Richmond            20.0   21.0   29.0 :  24   57   23   54   <5   <5
:Wakenda Creek
Carrollton          16.0   19.0   21.0 :  36   63   25   53    8   19
:Blackwater River
Valley City         22.0   25.0   31.0 :  35   73   23   56   14   22
Blue Lick           24.0   29.0   37.0 :  39   91   24   57   <5   <5
:Lamine River
Otterville          15.0   18.0   26.0 :  37   71   33   53    5    7
:Moniteau Creek
Fayette             16.0   21.0   25.0 :  44   58   10   20   <5   <5
:Petite Saline Creek
Boonville           16.0   19.5   26.0 :  40   68   29   43   <5   <5
:Thompson River
Trenton             27.0   31.0   34.0 :  19   22   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Grand River
Pattonsburg         25.0   30.0   32.0 :  35   38   15   28    7   17
Gallatin            26.0   33.0   39.0 :  25   36   <5   <5   <5   <5
Chillicothe         24.0   28.0   35.0 :  57   71   37   57   <5   <5
Sumner              26.0   28.0   40.0 :  71   79   69   77   <5   <5
:Chariton River
Novinger            20.0   23.0   26.0 :   9   22    6   12   <5   <5
Prairie Hill        15.0   19.0   21.0 :  49   65   16   28    6   11
:South Grand River
Urich               24.0   26.0   33.0 :  49   85   38   72   <5   <5
:Big Creek
Blairstown          20.0   23.0   36.0 :  85   91   62   76   <5   <5
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Osawatomie          28.0   45.0   48.0 :  28   57   <5   <5   <5   <5
La Cygne            25.0   30.0   36.0 :  36   70   14   28   <5   <5
Trading Post        27.0   29.0   40.0 :  23   48   17   41   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 02/17/2018  - 05/18/2018
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Delaware River
Muscotah              2.9    6.2    9.3   14.5   22.1   28.9   30.0
:Stranger Creek
Easton                4.3    9.0   12.2   18.1   20.5   21.7   22.5
Tonganoxie            4.4    9.5   15.1   19.0   24.3   25.2   25.6
:Kansas River
De Soto               9.2    9.4   11.7   14.4   17.7   20.3   21.2
:Tarkio River
Fairfax               7.0    8.6   11.8   17.7   25.8   27.1   28.3
:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti     6.6    7.9   10.7   13.3   17.8   21.7   25.7
:102 River
Maryville             8.6   10.4   13.1   15.2   16.8   18.6   21.9
Rosendale             3.0    5.7   10.3   15.3   17.0   18.4   21.1
:Platte River
Agency                9.6   12.6   17.7   23.1   25.8   27.6   28.9
:Little Platte River
Smithville           15.0   15.2   15.7   16.8   19.0   21.7   25.1
:Platte River
Sharps Station        8.6   16.2   20.3   26.4   28.7   30.4   31.5
Platte City           4.6   11.6   15.3   20.3   21.9   24.6   26.3
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev    26.2   26.3   26.5   26.8   28.2   33.1   35.1
Bannister Road        7.0    7.4    8.1   11.2   18.7   25.2   30.9
71 Highway           35.1   35.5   36.2   39.8   47.6   53.3   57.1
63rd Street          25.2   25.5   25.8   27.3   31.8   36.9   42.2
Colorado Avenue      33.6   34.3   35.2   37.4   42.4   44.4   50.3
Stadium Drive         7.8    8.4    9.2   13.0   20.8   23.5   28.8
40 Highway            1.3    2.3    3.8    8.4   15.0   17.2   23.2
17th Street           1.6    2.0    2.4    4.1   10.2   12.5   18.1
12th Street           6.0    6.7    7.9   12.4   18.2   19.9   25.6
:Little Blue River
Lake City             5.1    5.3    5.8    6.9   13.6   17.8   19.9
:Crooked River
Richmond              5.3    6.1    8.6   15.5   19.0   24.0   25.4
:Thompson River
Trenton              12.4   14.0   18.0   22.7   25.7   28.5   29.7
:Grand River
Pattonsburg           2.9    5.8   10.0   17.9   28.3   31.1   32.6
Gallatin              4.0    6.2   11.0   18.2   26.0   28.1   29.8
Chillicothe           5.5   11.1   18.3   25.1   30.7   32.9   33.5
Sumner               10.0   14.1   25.4   31.9   33.3   34.8   35.9
:Chariton River
Novinger              0.2    1.3    7.1   12.4   14.8   19.3   23.5
Prairie Hill          1.3    4.1   10.5   14.9   17.6   19.6   21.3
:South Grand River
Urich                14.6   16.2   19.6   23.8   27.5   28.6   29.1
:Big Creek
Blairstown           17.1   18.4   21.9   24.0   26.4   28.7   32.1
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Osawatomie           15.4   15.9   19.3   22.3   28.3   33.3   34.4
La Cygne              7.5    8.6   12.5   18.5   28.8   30.2   30.6
Trading Post          7.5    8.9   13.1   18.9   26.7   33.3   34.6

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 02/17/2018  - 05/18/2018
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Delaware River
Muscotah              2.2    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.2    1.7    1.7
:Stranger Creek
Easton                2.1    2.1    2.1    2.1    2.1    1.7    1.7
Tonganoxie            2.1    2.1    2.1    2.1    2.0    1.7    1.5
:Kansas River
De Soto               4.3    4.3    4.2    4.1    4.1    4.1    4.1
:Tarkio River
Fairfax               5.8    5.8    5.7    5.7    5.7    5.7    5.6
:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti     5.1    5.1    5.1    5.1    5.1    5.0    5.0
:102 River
Maryville             5.3    5.3    5.3    5.3    5.3    5.2    5.2
Rosendale             3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0
:Platte River
Agency                5.5    5.5    5.5    5.5    5.5    5.4    5.3
:Little Platte River
Smithville           12.5   12.5   12.5   12.4   12.4   12.4   12.4
:Platte River
Sharps Station        3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.6    3.5
Platte City          -2.6   -2.6   -2.6   -2.6   -2.6   -2.6   -2.8
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev    25.2   25.2   25.2   25.2   25.2   25.2   25.2
Bannister Road        3.9    3.9    3.9    3.9    3.9    3.9    3.9
71 Highway           31.9   31.9   31.9   31.9   31.9   31.8   31.8
63rd Street          22.0   22.0   22.0   21.9   21.9   21.9   21.9
Colorado Avenue      25.0   25.0   25.0   25.0   25.0   25.0   25.0
Stadium Drive         5.2    5.2    5.2    5.2    5.2    5.2    5.2
40 Highway           -2.0   -2.0   -2.0   -2.0   -2.0   -2.0   -2.0
17th Street          -1.3   -1.3   -1.4   -1.4   -1.4   -1.4   -1.4
12th Street           2.0    2.0    2.0    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9
:Little Blue River
Lake City             4.2    4.2    4.2    4.2    4.2    4.2    4.2
:Crooked River
Richmond              5.3    5.3    5.3    5.3    5.3    4.9    4.9
:Thompson River
Trenton              10.9   10.8   10.8   10.8   10.8   10.7   10.6
:Grand River
Pattonsburg           2.3    2.3    2.2    2.1    2.0    1.9    1.9
Gallatin              3.7    3.6    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.4    3.3
Chillicothe           4.2    4.0    3.9    3.9    3.8    3.7    3.6
Sumner                7.4    7.2    7.0    6.9    6.8    6.6    6.5
:Chariton River
Novinger             -0.7   -0.7   -0.8   -0.8   -0.8   -0.9   -0.9
Prairie Hill          1.1    1.1    1.1    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0
:South Grand River
Urich                 5.0    5.0    4.9    4.8    4.6    4.1    2.3
:Big Creek
Blairstown            9.4    9.4    9.3    9.2    9.1    8.0    8.0
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Osawatomie           13.3   13.3   13.2   13.2   13.2   13.2   13.2
La Cygne              4.2    4.2    4.1    4.1    4.1    4.1    4.1
Trading Post          3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.

Outlook:

For the period mid-February to mid-May, the probability of flooding
is normal to below normal along area streams and rivers. Locations
which commonly experience minor spring flooding will still likely
experience similar conditions during the next three months. This
includes the typical locations along the Missouri River. In
addition, the following basins have a 50 percent or greater
probability of minor flooding: Upper Stranger, Tarkio, Platte, Lower
Grand, Lower Chariton, South Grand, and Big.

Recent Conditions:

Mean temperatures since January 1st ranged from near 20 degrees
along the Iowa border to the upper 20s across west-central Missouri.
These values were generally 2 to 6 degrees below normal.

Dry conditions were common across the region so far during early
2018. Since January 1st, much of the area had received an inch or
less of precipitation. A significant portion of the Pleasant Hill
Hydrologic Service Area showed 50 percent or less of normal
precipitation.

Present Conditions:

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor indicates moderate drought
conditions generally along and east of Highway 65 in central and
northern Missouri. Elsewhere...the remainder of the Pleasant Hill
Hydrologic Service Area is experiencing abnormally dry conditions.

The latest daily streamflow data from the USGS reports near normal
conditions for much northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri. Below
normal streamflow conditions were common from east-central Kansas
into central and northern Missouri.

There is little if any remaining snowpack across Kansas and
Missouri. Looking north, some thin snow cover exists across
Nebraska, Iowa, and the Dakotas. However, snow water equivalent
values are generally a trace to one inch. Across the Upper Missouri
Basin, mountain snowpack is currently running above normal.
Reservoirs within the Missouri Basin currently have 100 percent of
their flood-control storage available for use.

Future Conditions:

Across the majority of the Lower Missouri Basin, the 8 to 14 day
outlook indicates a weather pattern favoring above normal
temperatures with a slightly increased probability of above normal
precipitation.

For the March period, the one month outlook shows an increased
probability of below normal temperatures across the entire Missouri
Basin. Equal chances of above, below, or normal temperatures and
precipitation are found across the lower portion of the Missouri
Basin. Further north, higher chances of above normal precipitation
are found from the western Dakotas into Montana and Wyoming.

The outlook for the period March through May indicates an increased
chance of below normal temperatures across the Upper Missouri Basin.
For the Lower Missouri Basin, the outlook shows a slightly increased
probability of above normal temperatures. As for the precipitation
outlook, there is an equal chance of above, below, or normal
conditions across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. There is a
slightly increased chance of above normal precipitation across
central and eastern Missouri. Across the upper portion of the
Missouri Basin, an increased probability of above normal
precipitation exists across the northern Rockies and parts of the
Dakotas.

The next Spring Flood Outlook will be issued March 1, 2018.

Visit our web site weather.gov/kc for more weather and water
information.

$$

SAW



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