Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FGUS73 KGLD 192133
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ZCZC TOPWRKESF 192132
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COC017-063-125-KSC023-039-063-065-071-109-137-153-179-181-193-
199-203-NEC057-087-145-202100

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
232 PM MST THU FEBRUARY 19 2015

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 1

THIS OUTLOOK USES THE TERM GOODLAND SERVICE AREA TO REFER TO MAJOR
RIVERS LOCATED
- IN YUMA...KIT CARSON...AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES OF COLORADO
- IN DUNDY...HITCHCOCK...AND RED WILLOW COUNTIES OF NEBRASKA
- IN 13 NORTHWEST KANSAS COUNTIES WHOSE SOUTHEAST BOUNDARIES
  ARE DELINEATED BY GREELEY...WICHITA...LOGAN...GOVE...
  GRAHAM...AND NORTON COUNTIES. THESE RIVER SYSTEMS INCLUDE
- THE NORTH AND SOUTH FORKS OF THE REPUBLICAN RIVER
- THE REPUBLICAN RIVER
- BEAVER...SAPPA AND PRAIRIE DOG CREEKS
- SOUTH AND NORTH FORKS OF THE SOLOMON RIVER
- THE SALINE AND SMOKY HILL RIVERS

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FROM FEBRUARY 19 THROUGH MARCH 5, 2015.

OUTLOOKS ARE ROUTINELY ISSUED IN FEBRUARY AND MARCH TO GIVE ADVANCED
NOTICE OF POSSIBLE FLOODING. THEY ARE BASED ON SOIL MOISTURE...
SNOWPACK MAGNITUDE AND STREAMFLOW AT THE TIME THE OUTLOOK IS ISSUED.
OUTLOOKS ARE ALSO BASED ON NORMAL FUTURE TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION. THUS...IF FUTURE CONDITIONS ARE NOT NORMAL...THEN
ACTUAL CRESTS WILL DIFFER FROM THIS OUTLOOK. THE VAST MAJORITY OF
FLOOD EVENTS IN THE GOODLAND SERVICE AREA RESULT FROM SHORT PERIODS
OF HIGHER INTENSITY PRECIPITATION...OR LONGER PERIODS OF EXCESSIVE
PRECIPITATION.

AFTER A WET DECEMBER...MUCH LESS PRECIPITATION HAS OCCURRED SINCE
THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR. CURRENTLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
HAS RECEIVED BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME WHILE THE
WESTERN PORTION HAS RECEIVED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. FOR THE
GOODLAND HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA)...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS
ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING A LITTLE DRY TO ADEQUATE. NO SNOW COVER
CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS THE GOODLAND HSA.  THE CURRENT DROUGHT
MONITOR INDEX (WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU) SHOWS THAT ABNORMALLY DRY
TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST OVER A MAJORITY OF THE HSA.
HOWEVER...MOST OF YUMA AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE ANY DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

NOAA`S CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) (WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/)
FORECASTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR THE PERIOD FEBRUARY 27 THROUGH MARCH 5.

RESERVOIR LEVELS CURRENTLY RANGE BETWEEN 22 TO 32 PERCENT OF
CONSERVATION POOL CAPACITIES AT KEITH SEBELIUS LAKE IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS...HUGH BUTLER LAKE...AND ENDERS AND SWANSON RESERVOIRS IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE HARRY STRUNK RESERVIOR WHICH FEEDS MEDICINE
CREEK IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IS CURRENTLY AT 100 PERCENT OF ITS
CONSERVATION CAPACITY.

GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SNOWPACK...AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...AND FORECASTS INDICATING ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION...A SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TO AVERAGE RISK OF FLOODING
IS DESIGNATED FOR THE GOODLAND SERVICE AREA FOR THE PERIOD OF
FEBRUARY 19 TO MARCH 5.

THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON MARCH 5.

$$

BULLER



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