Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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FGUS72 KGSP 202216
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GAC105-147-119-257-137-241-NCC075-173-113-099-087-175-
115-021-089-149-161-111-199-121-011-023-045-071-109-
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191958-

SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
516 PM EST FRI JAN 20 2017

...The second Spring Flood Potential Outlook for the
Western Carolinas and Extreme Northeast Georgia calls for a
BELOW NORMAL to NEAR NORMAL risk for small-stream flooding
and a WELL-BELOW NORMAL to BELOW NORMAL risk for mainstem
river flooding across the region through early spring 2016...

===============
HISTORICALLY...
===============

The mainstem river flood season typically begins in late December.
The quantity...frequency...magnitude...and significance of river
flood events often increases through late winter with a peak in
early to mid-March. The mainstem river flood season typically ends
by late April for the region.  This season began in severe to
extreme drought across much of the region and, as a result, it will
take more frequent and more significant precipitation over the next
few months to increase the chance of mainstem flood occurrence
across the region.

=============================================
14-DAY OBSERVED PRECIPITATION and FLOODING...
=============================================

Region        Observed    % of      Mainstem    Small Stream
              Precip      Normal    Flooding    Flooding
              (in)

NC Piedmont   0.25-1.00 |  10- 50 | None      | None
NC Foothills  0.50-1.00 |  25- 50 | None      | None
NC Nrn Mnts   0.75-2.25 |  25-125 | NA        | None
NC Cntl Mnts  0.75-1.75 |  25-125 | None      | None
NC Srn Mnts   0.75-1.50 |  10- 50 | None      | None

SC Mnts       0.75-1.00 |  25- 50 | NA        | None
SC Foothills  0.50-1.25 |  25- 75 | None      | None
SC Piedmont   0.50-1.00 |  25- 75 | None      | None

GA NE Mnts/   0.50-1.25 |  10- 50 | None      | None
   Foothills
GA Piedmont   0.75-1.25 |  25- 75 | None      | None

======================
CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...
======================

28-Day average streamflows are below normal to well-below normal
across the Western Carolinas and northeast Georgia.
For more information, please review: weather.gov/gsp/drought.

=============
RESERVOIRS...
=============

Area reservoirs are generall slightly below to well-below their
target pools for this time of year.  For more information,
please review: weather.gov/gsp/drought.

==========================
SNOW DEPTH and FORECAST...
==========================

Region        Snow   Snow Water  7-Day Snowfall
              Depth  Equivalent  Forecast
              (in)   (in)        (in)

NC Piedmont   None | None      | None
NC Foothills  None | None      | None
NC Nrn Mnts   None | None      | T-1.2
NC Cntl Mnts  None | None      | 0-1.0
NC Srn Mnts   None | None      | 0-0.2

SC Mnts       None | None      | None
SC Foothills  None | None      | None
SC Piedmont   None | None      | None

GA NE Mnts/   None | None      | None
   Foothills
GA Piedmont   None | None      | None

============================================================
1-7 DAY FUTURE PRECIPITATION FORECAST and FLOOD POTENTIAL...
============================================================

Region        7-Day       % of      Mainstem     Small Stream
              Precip      Normal    Flood Ptntl  Flood Ptntl
              (in)

NC Piedmont   1.50-2.00 | 150-250 | Zero       | Very Slight
NC Foothills  1.75-2.50 | 150-325 | Zero       | Slight
NC Nrn Mnts   2.00-2.75 | 150-350 | NA         | Very Slight
NC Cntl Mnts  2.00-3.00 | 125-400 | Zero       | Very Slight
NC Srn Mnts   2.00-2.75 | 100-275 | Zero       | Very Slight

SC Mnts       2.00-2.25 | 150-200 | NA         | Very Slight
SC Foothills  1.75-2.00 | 150-250 | Zero       | Very Slight
SC Piedmont   2.00-3.00 | 200-400 | Zero       | Very Slight

GA NE Mnts/   2.00-2.50 | 100-250 | Zero       | Zero
   Foothills
GA Piedmont   1.75-2.50 | 150-325 | Zero       | Zero

==================================
8-90 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS...
==================================

Region        8-14 Day          15-30 Day         30-90 Day
              Precip            Precip            Precip
              Outlook           Outlook           Outlook

NC Piedmont   Below Normal    | Equal Chances   | Slight Blw Nrml
NC Foothills  Below Normal    | Equal Chances   | Slight Blw Nrml
NC Nrn Mnts   Below Normal    | Equal Chances   | Slight Blw Nrml
NC Cntl Mnts  Below Normal    | Equal Chances   | Slight Blw Nrml
NC Srn Mnts   Below Normal    | Equal Chances   | Slight Blw Nrml

SC Mnts       Below Normal    | Equal Chances   | Slight Blw Nrml
SC Foothills  Below Normal    | Equal Chances   | Below Normal
SC Piedmont   Below Normal    | Equal Chances   | Below Normal

GA NE Mnts/   Below Normal    | Equal Chances   | Slight Abv Nrml
   Foothills
GA Piedmont   Below Normal    | Equal Chances   | Below Normal

Note that Equal-Chances means there are equal chances for
above-normal...normal...and below-normal precipitation during
the given period.  In other words, there is no clear signal for
precipitation during the given period.

==========================
LONG-TERM FLOOD OUTLOOK...
==========================

Therefore, given current antecedent conditions and long-range
precipitation guidance, the long-term flood outlook through the
end of April 2017 is as follows...

Region        Runoff            Small             Mainstem
              Potential         Streams           Rivers

NC Piedmont   Near Normal     | Slight Blw Nrml | Slight Blw Nrml
NC Foothills  Slight Blw Nrml | Slight Blw Nrml | Below Normal
NC Nrn Mnts   Near Normal     | Near Normal     | NA
NC Cntl Mnts  Near Normal     | Slight Blw Nrml | Below Normal
NC Srn Mnts   Near Normal     | Slight Blw Nrml | Slight Blw Nrml

SC Mnts       NA              | Slight Blw Nrml | NA
SC Foothills  Slight Blw Nrml | Below Normal    | Below Normal
SC Piedmont   Slight Blw Nrml | Below Normal    | Well-Below Nrml

GA NE Mnts/   Slight Blw Nrml | Below Normal    | Below Normal
   Foothills
GA Piedmont   Below Normal    | Below Normal    | Well-Below Nrml

===================
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...
===================

The precipitation analysis is derived from quality-controlled
gridded precipitation estimates produced at the Lower Mississippi
River Forecast Center (LMRFC) and the Southeast River Forecast
Center (SERFC).

The 1-7 day future precipitation is derived from guidance produced
by NWS Greenville-Spartanburg.

The long-term precipitation outlooks are derived from guidance
produced at the Climate Prediction Center (CPC).

Streamflow imformation is courtesy of the United States Geological
Survey (USGS).

Reservoir information is courtesy of Duke Energy...Georgia Power...
and the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE).

The general outlook is produced in collaboration with the LMRFC and
the SERFC.

=====================
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
=====================

The next flood outlook will be issued by Friday, February 3rd, 2017.

=====================
LATEST INFORMATION...
=====================

For the latest status of streams and mainstem rivers across the
region please visit:

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/
area.php?wfo=gsp&hydro_type=0&hsa_type=1

==========================
COUNTY TO REGION LEGEND...
==========================

------------
..GEORGIA...
------------

COUNTY         REGION

Elbert         GA Piedmont
Franklin       GA Piedmont
Habersham      GA NE Mountains/Foothills
Hart           GA Piedmont
Rabun          GA NE Mountains/Foothills
Stephens       GA NE Mountains/Foothills

-------------------
..NORTH CAROLINA...
-------------------

COUNTY         REGION (SUBREGION)

Alexander      NC Foothills (Northern)
Avery          NC Northern Mountains
Buncombe       NC Central Mountains
Burke          NC Foothills (Northern)
Cabarrus       NC Piedmont (Southern)
Caldwell       NC Foothills (Northern)
Catawba        NC Foothills (Northern)
Cleveland      NC Piedmont (Southern)
Davie          NC Piedmont (Northwest)
Gaston         NC Piedmont (Southern)
Graham         NC Central Mountains
Haywood        NC Central Mountains
Henderson      NC Southern Mountains
Iredell        NC Piedmont (Northwest)
Jackson North  NC Central Mountains
Jackson South  NC Southern Mountains
Lincoln        NC Piedmont (Southern)
Macon          NC Southern Mountains
Madison        NC Central Mountains
McDowell       NC Foothills (Northern)
Mecklenburg    NC Piedmont (Southern)
Mitchell       NC Northern Mountains
Polk           NC Foothills (Southern)
Rowan          NC Piedmont (Northwest)
Rutherford     NC Foothills (Southern)
Swain          NC Central Mountains
Transylvania   NC Southern Mountains
Union          NC Piedmont (Southern)
Yancey         NC Northern Mountains

-------------------
..SOUTH CAROLINA...
-------------------

COUNTY         REGION (SUBREGION)

Abbeville      SC Piedmont (Lower)
Anderson       SC Piedmont (Northern)
Cherokee       SC Piedmont (Northern)
Chester        SC Piedmont (Eastern)
Greenville     SC Mountains/Foothills
Greenwood      SC Piedmont (Lower)
Laurens        SC Piedmont (Lower)
Oconee         SC Mountains/Foothills
Pickens        SC Mountains/Foothills
Spartanburg    SC Mountains/Foothills
Union          SC Piedmont (Eastern)
York           SC Piedmont (Eastern)

========================
QUESTIONS or COMMENTS...
========================

This product has undergone several revisions and enhancements during
the most recent flood outlook period.  Additional enhancements are
planned for future flood outlooks. Your feedback and recommendations
are encouraged in order to ensure this product meets user needs.
Please direct feedback, recommendations, questions, and comments to:

National Weather Service
Weather Forecast Office - Greenville-Spartanburg
1549 GSP Drive
Greer SC 29651
Phone 864-848-9970
joshua.palmer@noaa.gov

$$

JMP



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