Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FGUS71 KGYX 201534
ESFGYX
MEC001-005-007-011-013-015-017-023-025-027-031-NHC001-003-005-007-
009-011-013-015-017-019-221545-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1034 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2015

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE NEAR
NORMAL. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS NORMAL.

THIS IS THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF REGULARLY SCHEDULED HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOKS ISSUED DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING SEASONS. THESE
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS UNTIL THE END OF THE SNOW
MELT SEASON... AND WILL ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED A
NUMBER OF FACTORS.

...CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE...

COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN THE RULE SINCE LATE
JANUARY AND THIS TYPE OF FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EVERY 3 OR 4 DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 6 TO 10 DAY AND 8 TO 14 DAY
FORECAST INDICATES BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO ABOVE
PRECIPITATION.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT...

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...

SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS NEW
HAMPSHIRE DUE TO THE COLD AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.

SNOW DEPTH ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE IS GENERALLY IN THE 1.5 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. SNOW DEPTH IS A BIT LESS IN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY
ON THE ORDER OF 12 TO 18 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXIST IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS GENERALLY IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE ACROS
NEW HAMPSHIRE. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT ARE NEAR OR SOMEWHAT BELOW
NORMAL IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND ABOVE NORMAL CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

...WESTERN MAINE...

SNOW DEPTH IN WESTERN MAINE RANGES FROM 1.5 TO 3 FEET WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. FARMINGTON REPORTED 47 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE
GROUND THIS MORNING AND BATH REPORTED 39 INCHES.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT GENERALLY RANGES FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES IN
WESTERN MAINE. WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS BEING REPORTED IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF MAINE.

SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT IS NEAR NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND ABOVE NORMAL SOUTH OF THE FOOTHILLS.

...SOIL MOISTURE AND WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS...

THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX CONTINUES TO SHOW EXTREMELY
MOIST CONDITIONS THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MAINE AND VERY
MOIST CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE USGS REPORTS THAT
GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE MOSTLY IN THE NORMAL RANGE FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR. RESERVOIRS IN THE ANDROSCOGGIN RIVER BASIN ARE 59.8PERCENT
FULL WHICH IS 16.4 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL. RESERVOIRS IN THE
KENNEBEC RIVER BASIN ARE ALSO AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE TIME
OF YEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MOOSEHEAD LAKE WHICH IS JUST BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS.

WATER SUPPLY SHORTAGES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

RIVER FLOWS ARE STILL NEAR NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR AND
CONTINUE TO COME DOWN DUE TO THE COLD WEATHER. MANY RIVERS AND
STREAMS ARE NOW ICE COVERED. THE USGS IS REPORTING THAT ICE IS
THICKENING RAPIDLY AND IS THE HARD BLACK ICE. ICE THICKNESS IS
GENERALLY 12 TO 24 INCHES THICK. ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN
OVER THE NEXT 2 WEEKS AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. TWO ICE JAMS ARE BEING REPORTED ON THE KENNEBEC
RIVER. ONE IS NEAR NORTH SIDNEY AND THE OTHER IS IN MADISON. WATER
LEVELS ARE DECREASING AS FLOWS CONTINUE TO COME DOWN DUE TO THE
COLD WEATHER. THESE JAMS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND MAY POSE A RISK
LATER IN THE SPRING.

...IN CONCLUSION...

BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD
POTENTIAL ACROSS WESTERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE IS NORMAL.
THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING IS ALSO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MAJOR FLOODING DOES NOT OCCUR
FROM SNOW MELT ALONE. RAINFALL...HOW MUCH AND IN HOW SHORT A
PERIOD OF TIME...IS THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE
SEVERITY OF FLOODING.

ANOTHER WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 8 AM FRIDAY
MARCH 6.

$$
TFH



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