Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FGUS73 KOAX 061345
ESFOAX
NEC003-023-025-039-053-055-067-095-107-109-119-127-139-141-147-151-
153-155-159-167-IAC071-085-133-137-145-155-202359-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
745 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2...

THIS FLOOD OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS)
OMAHA/VALLEY HYDROLOGIC SERVICES AREA. THIS AREA INCLUDES EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA. IT INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE
FOLLOWING RIVERS AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES.

MISSOURI RIVER FROM DECATUR TO RULO
NIOBRARA RIVER FROM VERDEL TO THE MISSOURI RIVER
BIG BLUE RIVER FROM SURPRISE TO THE KANSAS BORDER
ELKHORN RIVER FROM NELIGH TO THE PLATTE RIVER CONFLUENCE
PLATTE RIVER FROM DUNCAN TO LOUISVILLE
OTHER TRIBUTARIES TO THE MISSOURI RIVER IN IOWA AND NEBRASKA

CURRENT FLOOD OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS

* THE RISK OF FLOODING FOR THE REMAINDER OF WINTER AND INTO MID-SPRING IS
  BELOW NORMAL. LOCALLY HEAVY SPRING RAINS WILL CAUSE FLOODING IN LOCALIZED
  AREAS AS IS THE CASE EVERY YEAR. THIS OUTLOOK IS DIRECTED TOWARDS FLOODING
  ON A LARGER SCALE.

* CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO MAJOR, LARGE-SCALE FLOODING.

* THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED ICE JAM FLOODING REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL.

* GRAPHICS FOR SELECT RIVER GAUGES ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE
  AT: HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/LONG_RANGE.PHP?WFO=OAX.

OVERVIEW: DURING THE LAST TWO WEEKS THERE HAVEN`T BEEN ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FLOOD THREAT. THE SNOWPACK IN THE
HEADWATERS OF THE MISSOURI RIVER INCREASED, WHILE THE PLATTE RIVER
HEADWATER SNOWPACK REMAINED ABOUT THE SAME. FROST DEPTHS REMAIN
DEEP, IF HEAVY RAIN WERE TO FALL IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS, THIS WOULD
LIKELY LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERN. ALTHOUGH THE ICE JAM
THREAT REMAINS, IT WAS ALLEVIATED WHEN A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF ICE
FLUSHED OUT OF THE PLATTE AND LOUP RIVERS.

MOUNTAIN SNOW PACK: FOR THE HEADWATERS OF THE MISSOURI RIVER SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE 136% OF NORMAL THROUGH MARCH 6, THIS IS
AN INCREASE OF 10% IN THE LAST TWO WEEKS. FOR THE HEADWATERS OF THE
PLATTE RIVER SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE 128% OF NORMAL, THIS
IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED IN THE PAST TWO WEEKS.

PLAINS SNOW PACK: ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SNOW DEPTHS ARE NOT A CONCERN.
OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS LITTLE IF ANY WATER EQUIVALENT WAS ADDED TO
THE SNOWPACK, IF ANYTHING THE WATER CONTENT WAS REDUCED A LITTLE. IN
SOUTH DAKOTA, WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, THERE IS LITTLE, IF ANY,
SNOW AWAY FROM THE BLACK HILLS. TOWARD THE HEADWATERS OF THE JAMES
AND BIG SIOUX RIVERS, SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE AROUND ONE
INCH, AND UP TO 2 INCHES IN ISOLATED AREAS. THE MAJORITY OF THE
PLAINS SNOWPACK HAS LESS THAN ONE INCH OF WATER EQUIVALENT.  INTO
NORTH DAKOTA SIMILAR SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE BEING
REPORTED.

ICE JAM THREAT: THIS YEAR THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED ICE JAM FLOODING
REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL. A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF ICE FLUSHED THROUGH
THE LOUP/PLATTE RIVER SYSTEM DURING THE WEEKEND OF FEBRUARY 22ND.
SOME ICE REMAINS IN THE RIVER, THIS COMBINED WITH RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES HAS ALLOWED THE ICE JAM THREAT TO REMAIN. WARM
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK SHOULD END THE ICE JAM THREAT.

FROST DEPTHS: DUE TO THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OBSERVED THIS
WINTER, FROST DEPTHS ARE DEEP AND ARE RELATIVELY UNCHANGED IN THE
PAST TWO WEEKS. IN VALLEY, NEBRASKA THE FROST DEPTH IS 23 INCHES.
WHILE THIS IS THE ONLY FROST DEPTH REPORTING SITE, BASED ON REGIONAL
FROST DEPTH VALUES, IT SEEMS REASONABLE MOST AREAS OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA HAVE SIMILAR FROST DEPTHS, IF NOT
DEEPER. FROST DEPTH CAN BE A MAJOR CONTRIBUTOR TO FLOODING,
SPECIFICALLY WHEN RAIN OR SNOWMELT OCCURS ON FROZEN GROUND. THE
FROST INHIBITS INFILTRATION OF THE RAIN/SNOWMELT AND FLOODING IS
MORE EASILY ACHIEVED. IDEALLY, WE WANT THE GROUND TO SUFFICIENTLY
WARMED-UP PRIOR TO THE SPRING RAINS.  GIVEN HOW DEEP THE FROST IS
THIS YEAR, THIS WILL TAKE MUCH LONGER THAN YEARS PAST, THUS
INCREASING THE FLOOD THREAT IF HEAVY RAINS WERE TO OCCUR.

CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS: SEE SUB-SECTIONS BELOW. WHERE AVAILABLE
STREAMFLOWS HAVE BEEN COMPARED TO THE LONG-TERM MEAN.

CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS (MARCH 12 THROUGH MARCH 18):
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER PREDICTS A 33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A 33 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
BEING BELOW NORMAL.

CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY: THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
PREDICTS A 33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
AN EQUAL CHANCE FOR BELOW, NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
THROUGH MAY.

MORE BASIN SPECIFIC INFORMATION IS BELOW.

TO FOLLOW ARE SECTIONS DESCRIBING THE THREAT FOR FLOODING FOR SELECT
RIVER BASINS.

               *****************************************
               *  MISSOURI RIVER FROM DECATUR TO RULO  *
               *****************************************

OVERVIEW: THE MISSOURI RIVER HAS BEEN RUNNING LOWER THAN NORMAL
BELOW GAVINS POINT THIS WINTER. THIS IS A FUNCTION OF CONSERVATION
MEASURES TAKEN BY THE US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS AS WELL AS THE LACK
OF APPRECIABLE TRIBUTARY CONTRIBUTIONS DOWNSTREAM OF GAVINS POINT
DAM. WITH THAT SAID, FLOWS ARE HIGHER WHEN COMPARED TO THE MEAN THAN
THEY WERE LAST YEAR GOING INTO SNOWMELT SEASON. BASED ON SNOW AND
BASIN CONDITIONS THERE IS A GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER FROM PLATTSMOUTH TO RULO REACHING FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE
FIRST WEEK IN JUNE. FROM DECATUR TO OMAHA, THE MISSOURI RIVER IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE.

                         AVERAGE
                       STREAMFLOW     LONG-TERM    RECENT STREAMFLOW AS
                      PAST 14 DAYS    MEAN FLOW    A % OF LONG-TERM MEAN
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
MISSOURI RIVER:
      AT DECATUR         15,813       19,600         81%
      AT OMAHA           16,368       22,500         73%
      AT NEBRASKA CITY   22,623       31,300         72%
      AT RULO            24,147       34,700         70%


                          ********************
                          *  NIOBRARA RIVER  *
                          ********************

OVERVIEW: BASIN-WIDE CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO LARGE SCALE
FLOODING THIS SPRING. ICE JAM FLOODING CAN`T BE RULED OUT ALONG
PONCA CREEK WHICH IS A COMMON AREA FOR ICE JAMS TO FORM.


                  CHANCE OF REACHING
                      FLOOD STAGE         CHANCE OF
                  COMPARED TO NORMAL    MINOR FLOODING
------------------------------------------------------
NIOBRARA RIVER:
 AT VERDEL            NEAR NORMAL           <5%

PONCA CREEK:
 AT VERDEL              6% LESS             12%


                         **************************
                         *  BIG BLUE RIVER BASIN  *
                         **************************

OVERVIEW: BASIN-WIDE CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO LARGE SCALE
FLOODING THIS SPRING. FOR THE CURRENT WATER YEAR PRECIPITATION IS
AROUND 125 TO 150% ABOVE NORMAL. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS HEAVIEST
ALONG THE MID TO UPPER REACHES OF THE LITTLE BLUE RIVER. BECAUSE OF
THIS, THE CHANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ALONG THE LITTLE BLUE
RIVER IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL.


                  CHANCE OF REACHING
                      FLOOD STAGE        CHANCE OF
                  COMPARED TO NORMAL   MINOR FLOODING
-------------------------------------------------------
BIG BLUE RIVER:
 AT SURPRISE          11% LESS             5%
 AT SEWARD            10% LESS            10%
 AT CRETE             16% LESS            40%
 AT BEATRICE          23% LESS            12%
 AT BARNESTON          8% LESS             7%

LINCOLN CREEK:
 AT SEWARD            14% LESS            17%

W FK BIG BLUE RIVER:
 AT DORCHESTER        15% LESS            19%

TURKEY CREEK:
 AT WILBER            16% LESS            27%

LITTLE BLUE RIVER:
 AT DEWEESE            3% GREATER         21%
 AT FAIRBURY           4% GREATER          9%


                       *************************
                       *  ELKHORN RIVER BASIN  *
                       *************************

OVERVIEW: BASIN-WIDE CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO LARGE SCALE
FLOODING THIS SPRING. IN A TYPICAL YEAR, ICE JAMS ARE THE MAIN
THREAT ALONG THE ELKHORN RIVER. THIS YEAR WITH RIVER FLOWS WELL
BELOW NORMAL AND A LACK OF SNOW COVER, THE FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS
IS BELOW NORMAL. WITH THAT SAID, UNTIL ALL THE ICE IS MELTED IN THE
RIVER, ICE JAM FLOODING CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

                 CHANCE OF REACHING
                     FLOOD STAGE         CHANCE OF
                 COMPARED TO NORMAL   MINOR FLOODING
----------------------------------------------------
ELKHORN RIVER:
 AT NELIGH             NEAR NORMAL         <5%
 AT NORFOLK            NEAR NORMAL         <5%
 AT PILGER             NEAR NORMAL         <5%
 AT WEST POINT         NEAR NORMAL          5%
 AT WINSLOW            NEAR NORMAL         <5%
 AT WATERLOO           NEAR NORMAL         <5%

N FK ELKHORN RIVER:
 AT PIERCE             4% LESS             <5%

MAPLE CREEK:
 AT NICKERSON          6% LESS              8%

LOGAN CREEK:
 AT UEHLING            NEAR NORMAL         <5%


                        ************************
                        *  PLATTE RIVER BASIN  *
                        ************************

OVERVIEW: BASIN-WIDE CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO LARGE SCALE
FLOODING THIS SPRING. AS IS THE CASE EVERY YEAR, ICE JAM FLOODING IS
THE MAIN CONCERN. DURING THE WEEKEND OF FEBRUARY 22ND AND DURING THE
NEXT WEEK, ICE JAM FLOODING OCCURRED NEAR SCHUYLER AND NORTH BEND.
THAT WEEKEND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF ICE MOVED OUT OF THE RIVER.
WITH MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON THE WAY NEXT WEEK, THE REMAINDER OF THE
ICE SHOULD MELT OR MOVE OUT. INTERESTS ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER,
ESPECIALLY FROM NORTH BEND AND DOWNSTREAM, SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT TO
THE CONTINUED THREAT OF ICE JAMS ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK.


                    CHANCE OF REACHING
                        FLOOD STAGE        CHANCE OF
                   COMPARED TO NORMAL   MINOR FLOODING
--------------------------------------------------------
PLATTE RIVER:
 AT DUNCAN             NEAR NORMAL           7%
 AT NORTH BEND           11% LESS            7%
 AT LESHARA              10% LESS           14%
 AT ASHLAND              23% LESS           <5%
 AT LOUISVILLE           18% LESS            6%

SHELL CREEK:
 AT COLUMBUS           NEAR NORMAL           5%

SALT CREEK:
 AT ROCA                  4% LESS            8%
 AT LINCOLN               1% LESS            8%
 AT GREENWOOD             5% LESS           13%
 AT ASHLAND               7% LESS           30%

WAHOO CREEK:
 AT ITHACA                8% LESS           30%



                ********************************************
                *  OTHER TRIBUTARIES TO THE MISSOURI RIVER *
                ********************************************

OVERVIEW: BASIN-WIDE CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO LARGE SCALE
FLOODING THIS SPRING. IN IOWA THE MAJORITY OF THE APPRECIABLE SNOW
COVER IS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER DIVIDE. THE HEADWATERS OF THE
LITTLE SIOUX RIVER HAVE SOME SNOW TO MELT, BUT IT WON`T BE ENOUGH TO
SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT. BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF SNOW
COVER, THE CHANCE OF REACHING FLOOD STAGE IS BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
SOUTHWEST IOWA.


                                 CHANCE OF REACHING
                                     FLOOD STAGE       CHANCE OF
                                 COMPARED TO NORMAL  MINOR FLOODING
-------------------------------------------------------------------
MAPLE RIVER AT MAPLETON            NEAR NORMAL           <5%
LITTLE SIOUX RIVER AT TURIN          2% LESS             <5%
SOLDIER RIVER AT PISGAH            NEAR NORMAL           <5%
BOYER RIVER AT LOGAN                 2% LESS             <5%
WEEPING WATER CREEK AT UNION         2% LESS             13%

NISHNABOTNA RIVER:
 EAST NISHNABOTNA AT RED OAK        11% LESS             28%
 WEST NISHNABOTNA AT HANCOCK        13% LESS             22%
 WEST NISHNABOTNA AT RANDOLPH        3% LESS             28%
 NISHNABOTNA AT HAMBURG             26% LESS             21%

LITTLE NEMAHA RIVER AT AUBURN        4% LESS             13%
N FK BIG NEMAHA RIVER AT HUMBOLDT   NEAR NORMAL          <5%
BIG NEMAHA RIVER AT FALLS CITY       7% LESS             <5%
NODAWAY RIVER AT CLARINDA           NEAR NORMAL          <5%


                               CURRENT STREAMFLOW AS A
                              PERCENT OF LONG-TERM MEAN
-------------------------------------------------------
MAPLE RIVER AT MAPLETON              23%
LITTLE SIOUX RIVER AT TURIN          31%
SOLDIER RIVER AT PISGAH              66%
BOYER RIVER AT LOGAN                 25%
WEST NISHNABOTNA AT HANCOCK          46%
EAST NISHNABOTNA AT RED OAK          36%
NISHNABOTNA AT HAMBURG               51%
NODAWAY RIVER AT CLARINDA            29%


A TABLE OF FLOOD PROBABILITIES IS AVAILABLE BELOW.

ALL OF THIS PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL
FORMAT ON THE INTERNET AT:

           HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/LONG_RANGE.PHP?WFO=OAX

THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON MARCH 6TH. FOR QUESTIONS ON THIS
OUTLOOK, PLEASE CONTACT:

DAVID PEARSON
SENIOR SERVICE HYDROLOGIST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY
DAVID.PEARSON@NOAA.GOV
(402) 359-5166 X493


IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
   :                     VALID PERIOD = 3/8/2014 - 6/6/2014

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATERGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---

:PONCA CREEK
VERDEL              12.0   15.0   17.0 :  12   18    5    7   <5   <5

:NIOBRARA RIVER
VERDEL               7.0    9.0   10.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:NORTH FORK ELKHORN RIVER
PIERCE              12.0   14.0   16.0 :  <5    9   <5   <5   <5   <5

:ELKHORN RIVER
NELIGH              11.0   12.0   14.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
NORFOLK             12.0   13.0   17.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PILGER              12.0   14.0   15.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
WEST POINT          12.0   16.0   18.7 :  <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
WATERLOO            17.0   18.0   21.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:LOGAN CREEK
UEHLING             18.0   19.0   21.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:SHELL CREEK
COLUMBUS            20.0   21.0   22.0 :   5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:PLATTE RIVER
DUNCAN               8.0    9.0   10.0 :   7    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
NORTH BEND           8.0   12.0   15.0 :   7   18   <5   <5   <5   <5
LESHARA              8.0   10.0   12.0 :  14   24   <5   <5   <5   <5

:MAPLE CREEK
NICKERSON           11.5   13.0   17.0 :   8   14   <5    6   <5   <5

:PLATTE RIVER
ASHLAND             20.0   22.0   26.0 :  <5   28   <5   <5   <5   <5
LOUISVILLE           9.0   11.0   12.0 :   6   24   <5   <5   <5   <5

:WAHOO CREEK
ITHACA              19.0   22.0   23.0 :  30   38    5   10   <5   <5

:SALT CREEK
ROCA                19.0   23.0   26.0 :   8   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
LINCOLN             20.5   26.5   33.0 :   8    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
GREENWOOD           20.0   22.0   26.0 :  13   18   10   10    5    5
ASHLAND             16.0   20.0   23.0 :  30   37   <5   <5   <5   <5

:BIG BLUE RIVER
SURPRISE             7.0   11.0   16.0 :   5   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
SEWARD              18.0   22.0   27.0 :  10   20   <5   <5   <5   <5
CRETE               18.0   24.0   29.0 :  40   56    8   17   <5    5
BEATRICE            16.0   26.0   32.0 :  12   35   <5   <5   <5   <5
BARNESTON           20.0   27.0   34.0 :   7   15   <5    6   <5   <5

:LINCOLN CREEK
SEWARD              15.0   17.0   20.0 :  17   31    8   12   <5   <5

:WEST FORK BIG BLUE RIVER
DORCHESTER          15.0   22.0   24.4 :  19   34   <5   <5   <5   <5

:TURKEY CREEK
WILBER              12.5   16.0   21.0 :  27   43   <5   <5   <5   <5

:LITTLE BLUE RIVER
FAIRBURY            18.5   20.0   26.0 :   9   <5    6   <5   <5   <5

:WEEPING WATER CREEK
UNION               25.0   28.0   30.0 :  13   15   <5    6   <5   <5

:LITTLE NEMAHA R
AUBURN              22.0   23.0   27.0 :  13   17    9   15   <5   <5

:NORTH FORK BIG NEMAHA RIVER
HUMBOLDT            28.0   29.5   31.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:BIG NEMAHA RIVER
FALLS CITY          27.0   33.0   36.0 :  <5   12   <5   <5   <5   <5

:MAPLE RIVER
MAPLETON            21.0   24.0   27.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:LITTLE SIOUX RIVER
TURIN               25.0   28.0   34.5 :  <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5

:SOLDIER RIVER
PISGAH              28.0   29.0   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:BOYER RIVER
LOGAN               19.0   22.0   25.0 :  <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5

:WEST NISHNABOTNA RIVER
HANCOCK             14.0   19.0   23.0 :  22   35   10   15   <5    7
RANDOLPH            19.0   22.0   24.0 :  28   31   10    8   <5   <5

:EAST NISHNABOTNA RIVER
RED OAK             18.0   22.0   27.0 :  28   39    7   14   <5   <5

:NISHNABOTNA RIVER
HAMBURG             25.0   27.0   33.0 :  21   47   17   30   <5   <5

:NODAWAY RIVER
CLARINDA            23.0   26.0   29.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5


LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                              CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

:PONCA CREEK
VERDEL                4.9    5.1    5.9    7.9    9.2   12.7   14.8

:NIOBRARA RIVER
VERDEL                3.0    3.0    3.3    3.9    4.0    4.9    6.1

:NORTH FORK ELKHORN RIVER
PIERCE                3.5    3.5    3.6    4.9    7.0    9.0    9.7

:ELKHORN RIVER
NELIGH                2.4    2.8    4.2    5.1    5.8    6.9    8.0
NORFOLK               2.4    2.5    2.9    3.8    4.5    5.5    6.9
PILGER                7.7    7.7    8.1    8.7    9.5   10.4   11.0
WEST POINT            7.2    7.3    7.7    8.8    9.8   10.9   11.8
WATERLOO              3.9    4.0    6.2    8.4   10.9   13.6   14.4

:LOGAN CREEK
UEHLING               5.6    5.7    6.4    7.8   11.4   13.3   14.3

:SHELL CREEK
COLUMBUS              1.9    2.2    4.2    9.7   16.3   18.9   19.7

:PLATTE RIVER
DUNCAN                4.1    4.1    4.2    5.0    5.8    7.4    8.2
NORTH BEND            4.9    4.9    5.3    6.0    7.3    7.9    8.3
LESHARA               5.2    5.2    5.6    6.5    7.6    8.4    8.7

:MAPLE CREEK
NICKERSON             4.3    4.7    5.8    7.4    9.1   10.1   12.9

:PLATTE RIVER
ASHLAND              16.2   16.2   16.9   18.1   18.7   19.4   19.7
LOUISVILLE            5.1    5.1    5.6    6.9    7.9    8.6    9.1

:WAHOO CREEK
ITHACA                4.4    4.4    7.3   15.8   20.6   21.6   22.0

:SALT CREEK
ROCA                  2.0    2.4    3.7    6.2   12.5   18.9   19.6
LINCOLN               2.7    2.7    4.5    7.5   13.5   17.0   22.4
GREENWOOD             3.0    3.2    5.6   10.0   16.0   21.6   25.3
ASHLAND               7.3    7.4    9.2   12.5   17.1   17.7   19.2

:BIG BLUE RIVER
SURPRISE              1.5    1.7    2.2    2.9    4.0    5.5    7.2
SEWARD                1.5    2.0    3.1    7.1   13.2   17.7   19.9
CRETE                 7.1    8.1   11.5   16.5   20.5   23.2   25.8
BEATRICE              4.3    4.5    6.7   10.7   14.5   16.8   19.2
BARNESTON             5.1    5.1    8.5   11.9   14.3   17.8   22.4

:LINCOLN CREEK
SEWARD                3.6    3.6    6.7   10.1   13.0   16.3   17.8

:WEST FORK BIG BLUE RIVER
DORCHESTER            2.4    3.3    5.1    9.3   13.5   17.8   19.8

:TURKEY CREEK
WILBER                1.7    3.0    6.5    9.6   12.8   15.0   15.6

:LITTLE BLUE RIVER
FAIRBURY              7.8    9.1   11.2   14.2   16.4   17.9   20.3

:WEEPING WATER CREEK
UNION                 2.9    4.2    6.7    9.6   17.8   26.5   27.2

:LITTLE NEMAHA R
AUBURN                4.9    5.6    8.3   10.6   19.2   22.7   23.7

:NORTH FORK BIG NEMAHA RIVER
HUMBOLDT              5.2    5.2    6.6    8.4   11.9   15.1   17.5

:BIG NEMAHA RIVER
FALLS CITY            7.8    8.3   10.8   13.6   19.6   22.5   26.1

:MAPLE RIVER
MAPLETON              5.3    5.6    6.3    7.6    9.7   12.3   16.1

:LITTLE SIOUX RIVER
TURIN                 7.5    7.9    8.4   10.6   13.7   20.1   22.0

:SOLDIER RIVER
PISGAH                4.4    4.8    5.7    7.5    9.0   10.0   11.1

:BOYER RIVER
LOGAN                 4.8    5.8    7.6    9.3   11.7   16.4   18.3

:WEST NISHNABOTNA RIVER
HANCOCK               4.3    5.2    7.3    8.6   13.1   19.3   21.5
RANDOLPH              9.5   11.4   13.6   15.7   19.3   22.0   22.6

:EAST NISHNABOTNA RIVER
RED OAK               7.6    7.6   10.7   13.8   18.6   21.5   23.8

:NISHNABOTNA RIVER
HAMBURG              10.4   11.1   16.4   20.4   24.4   27.7   28.2

:NODAWAY RIVER
CLARINDA             11.0   11.6   12.1   13.4   17.4   19.8   21.1



THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE
OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC
FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.

ALL OF THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT
ON THE INTERNET AT

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/OMAHA (LOWER CASE)

$$
PEARSON



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