Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FGUS71 KPHI 281705
ESFPHI
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Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
105 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook...Number 9...FINAL

This is the ninth in a series of annual Winter/Spring Flood
Potential Statements intended to provide insight into the
likelihood of river flooding (not flash flooding) over the
middle/lower Delaware, Lehigh, Schuylkill, Passaic and Raritan
River basins. These statements will provide information on flood
threat conditions such as recent precipitation, soil moisture,
snow cover and its water equivalent, river ice conditions,
streamflow, future precipitation and others.

This outlook does not address the severity or extent of any
future river flooding.

In the Mid-Atlantic region, heavy rainfall is the primary factor
which leads to river flooding. It is important to note that heavy
rainfall can rapidly cause river flooding any time of year, even
when the overall river flood potential is considered to be low.

This FINAL outlook is valid from April 27 to May 11, 2017.

In the Mount Holly, New Jersey Hydrologic Service Area (HSA), the
overall river flood potential is normal.

Note - For the headwaters of the Delaware River, see the
statement (FGUS71 KBGM ESFBGM) from our Binghamton (BGM) New York
office.

CURRENT FLOODING - None.

RECENT PRECIPITATION - Normal to above norma1. Between 4.0 and
5.5 inches of liquid have been recorded over the last 30 days.
Precipitation departure maps can be found at
www.weather.gov/marfc(under the Water Supply tab).

SNOW COVER - Normal. No snow is on the ground across the HSA.
Depth and basin-average water equivalent estimates can be found
at www.weather.gov/marfc (under the Seasonal Interest tab) or
www.nohrsc.noaa.gov (under the National Analysis tab).

RIVER ICE - Normal. No ice has been reported across the HSA.

STREAMFLOW - Variable, below normal to above normal. Real time
water data is available from the United States Geological Survey
by visiting http://water.usgs.gov.

SOIL MOISTURE - Below normal to normal. Soil moisture monitoring
charts (Long Term Palmer Drought Severity Index) from NOAA`s
Climate Prediction Center can be found at the following
websites...
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_
monitoring/palmer.gif as well as www.drought.gov.

GROUND WATER - USGS monitoring wells indicate that current ground
water levels across the region are variable, ranging from much
below normal to above normal. Additonal information can be found
at http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - Water supply and flood control reservoirs
in the area are running below normal to normal.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - A cold front will move across the
area Saturday into Saturday night. This front will remain near
the
Delmarva and southern New Jersey on Sunday, then return as a warm
front on Sunday night. Another cold front is expected on Monday
night as an area of low pressure moves into the Great Lakes
region. This low will drift northeast through southeast Canada
through Thursday, with a couple of weak surface troughs moving
across the area Tuesday and Wednesday. An area of low pressure
may
affect the Mid Atlantic region late next week.

At this time, there are no strong indications of any widespread
heavy rain events for about the next week.

The 8 to 14 day outlook calls for below normal temperatures and
above normal precipitation.

SUMMARY - Taking all of the included variables into
consideration,
the overall river flood potential is normal.

This is the FINAL flood outlook product for the 2016-2017
winter/spring period.

For complete weather information, visit our website at:
www.weather.gov/phi

$$

Kruzdlo



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