Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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Water Supply Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
700 AM MST Tue Mar 7 2017

...Water Supply Outlook for South Central and Southeast Colorado as
of March 1 2017...

The parade of Pacific storms that moved through Colorado in December
and January slowed down in February.  Snowpack numbers slipped a
little during the month but remained a healthy amount above average
on March 1st.

As of March 1, snowpack in the Upper Rio Grande Basin of south
central Colorado was at 136 percent of median.  The highest snowpack
percentages were concentrated over the southernmost portion of the
basin.  The Conejos and Rio San Antonio Basins were at a combined
160 percent of median.  The Alamosa, Culebra and Trinchera Basins
were at a combined 133 percent of median.  Farther north, the
snowpack percentages were a little lower.  The Upper Rio Grande
Headwaters portion of the basin reported 127 percent of median
snowpack.  The combined Saguache and San Luis Basins were right at
median snowpack coming in at 100 percent of median.

The March 1 snowpack in the Arkansas River Basin was at 143 percent
of median overall.  The greatest snowpack percentages favored
northern and southern portions of the basin, with lower percentages
over middle portions.  The northern headwaters portion of the basin
reported 158 percent of median snowpack.  In the middle portion of
the basin, the combined Cucharas and Huerfano Basins reported 114
percent of median snowpack while the Apishapa Basin reported 118
percent of median.  Over the southern portion of the basin, the
Purgatoire basin reported 149 percent of median snowpack.

At the end of January, overall reservoir storage was below average
across south central Colorado and near average across southeast
Colorado. Storage in the Rio Grande Basin was at 89 percent of
average overall compared to 90 percent of average last year at the
same time.  Across southeast Colorado, overall storage in the
Arkansas Basin was at 99 percent of average, compared to 125 percent
of average at the same time last year.

For the Rio Grande Basin, streamflow volumes for the upcoming runoff
season are forecast to be above average.  Following are the latest
available streamflow forecasts for selected locations in the Rio
Grande Basin assuming normal precipitation for the remainder of the
snow season:

Location                   % of Average     Runoff Period

 Rio Grande River
  Thirty Mile Bridge            113            Apr-Jul
  Wagon Wheel Gap               115            Apr-Sep
  Near Del Norte                118            Apr-Sep
South Fork Rio Grande River
  South Fork                    118            Apr-Sep
Saguache Creek
  Near Saguache                 134            Apr-Sep
Alamosa Creek
  Terrace Reservoir Inflow      110            Apr-Sep
La Jara Creek
  Near Capulin                  121            Mar-Jul
Trinchera Creek
  Above Turners Ranch           133            Apr-Sep
Conejos River
  Platoro Reservoir Inflow      116            Apr-Sep
  Near Mogote                   129            Apr-Sep
Culebra Creek
  San Luis                      130            Apr-Sep
San Antonia River
  Ortiz                         160            Apr-Sep
Los Pinos
  Ortiz                         151            Apr-Sep

For the Arkansas Basin, streamflow volumes for the upcoming runoff
season are generally forecast to be above average.  Following are
the latest available streamflow forecasts for selected locations in
the Arkansas Basin assuming normal precipitation for the remainder
of the snow season:

Location                   % of Average     Runoff Period

Arkansas River
  Granite                       124            Apr-Sep
  Salida                        125            Apr-Sep
  Canon City                    123            Apr-Sep
  Above Pueblo                  121            Apr-Sep
Chalk Creek
  Near Nathrop                  115            Apr-Sep
Grape Creek
  Near Westcliffe                99            Apr-Sep
Huerfano River
  Near Redwing                  102            Apr-Sep
Cucharas River
  Near La Veta                  113            Apr-Sep
Purgatoire River
  Trinidad                      115            Apr-Sep

These forecasts reflect natural flow only.  Actual observed flow
will likely be affected by upstream water management.

The forecasts below are for 2 locations on the southeast Colorado
plains in the lower part of the Arkansas Basin.  These forecasts
include projected upstream water management expected to impact
flows.

Arkansas River
  Las Animas                    118            Apr-Sep
Purgatoire River
  Las Animas                    113            Apr-Sep

This outlook is based on recent observations of snowpack and assumes
normal precipitation for the remainder of the snow season.  If the
actual observed precipitation deviates from normal, then the actual
observed runoff will likely be different than the forecast in this
outlook.  This is the third of six scheduled outlooks for the 2017
runoff season.

Users of this product are encouraged to contact the National Weather
Service in Pueblo for continued updates on the water supply
situation.  Meteorological conditions could develop that would have
a significant impact on water supply forecasts.  The next outlook
will be issued during the first part of April.

For additional hydrologic products available on the world wide
web, visit the Pueblo National Weather Service web site at
weather.gov/pub.

This message is the result of collaboration between the National
Weather Service and the Natural Resources Conservation Service.

LW



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