Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Seattle/Tacoma, WA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1
000
FGUS76 KSEW 042156
ESFSEW

FGUS76 KSEW DDHHMM
ESFSEW

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
155 PM PST FRI MAR 4 2016

...WESTERN WASHINGTON SPRING SNOW MELT FLOOD POTENTIAL...

SNOW MELT

THE CHANCES FOR SPRING SNOW MELT FLOODING IN WASHINGTON ARE
GENERALLY NORMAL. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SPRING SNOWMELT FLOODING
IS FOR THE MORE FLOOD PRONE NACHES RIVER WHICH HAS A SLIGHTLY
GREATER THAN NORMAL CHANCE OF FLOODING THIS SPRING.

FLOODING IN WESTERN WASHINGTON IS UNLIKELY DURING THE PERIOD OF
MOUNTAIN SNOW PACK RUNOFF...WHICH PEAKS FROM APRIL THROUGH JUNE.
BASED ON THE CURRENT SNOW PACK AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURES...THE THREAT OF SPRING AND SUMMER SNOWMELT FLOODING
IN WESTERN WASHINGTON IS AT ITS NORMAL LOW LEVEL.


PRECIPITATION SUMMARY
---------------------

PRECIPITATION FOR THE WATER YEAR IS ABOVE NORMAL TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE STATE.

SNOW PACK CONDITIONS
-------------------

THE SNOW PACK IS MOSTLY NEAR NORMAL BUT RANGES FROM BELOW NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL.

STREAMFLOWS SUMMARY
-------------------

STREAMFLOWS FOR MOST OF WASHINGTON RIVERS ARE RUNNING AT NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.


WEATHER OUTLOOK
---------------

THE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH AND BEYOND...THE MONTHLY OUTLOOK FOR MARCH IS
FOR GREATER ODDS OF DRIER THAN NORMAL AND WARMER THAN NORMAL. THE
THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR APRIL THROUGH JUNE IS CALLING FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF BELOW...ABOVE...OR NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND GREATER ODDS
OF WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE STATE.


SPRING AND SUMMER SNOW MELT PEAK FLOW FORECASTS:

HERE ARE THE LATEST SPRING AND SUMMER CREST FORECASTS FOR WESTERN
WASHINGTON RIVERS AS OF MARCH 3. STATISTICALLY THERE IS A 67 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT THE ACTUAL SPRING CREST WILL FALL WITHIN THE MOST LIKELY
RANGE.

RIVER AND SITE          FLOOD STAGE        MOST LIKELY RANGE OF
                                          THE SPRING/SUMMER CREST
SNAKE RIVER
  NEAR ANATONE            20.0 FT           13.3 FT TO 15.9 FT

PEND OREILLE RIVER
  AT NEWPORT             95.0 KCFS       62.0 KCFS TO 75.7 KCFS

SPOKANE RIVER
  AT SPOKANE              27.0 FT           24.2 FT TO 24.7 FT

SIMILKAMEEN RIVER
  NEAR NIGHTHAWK          14.0 FT           10.1 FT TO 11.0 FT

OKANOGAN RIVER
  NEAR TONASKET           15.0 FT           13.5 FT TO 14.8 FT

METHOW RIVER
  NEAR PATEROS            10.0 FT            7.6 FT TO  8.5 FT

WENATCHEE RIVER
  AT PESHASTIN            13.0 FT            9.4 FT TO 10.5 FT

COLUMBIA RIVER BELOW
  PRIEST RAPIDS DAM       32.0 FT           21.4 FT TO 23.2 FT

YAKIMA RIVER
  AT HORLICK              36.0 FT           32.6 FT TO 33.4 FT

NACHES RIVER
  NEAR NACHES             17.8 FT           17.9 FT TO 18.8 FT

YAKIMA RIVER
  AT PARKER               10.0 FT            8.1 FT TO  8.7 FT

YAKIMA RIVER
  AT KIONA                13.0 FT           10.9 FT TO 11.2 FT

WALLA WALLA RIVER
  NEAR TOUCHET            13.0 FT            8.9 FT TO  9.6 FT

SKAGIT RIVER
  NEAR MT. VERNON         28.0 FT            22.4 FT TO 25.3 FT

STILLAGUAMISH RIVER
  AT ARLINGTON            14.0 FT            10.9 FT TO 11.3 FT

SNOQUALMIE RIVER
  NEAR SNOQUALMIE        20000 CFS          9190 CFS TO 14600 CFS

COWLITZ RIVER
  AT RANDLE               18.0 FT              10.8 TO 13.9 FT

SF SKOKOMISH RIVER
  NEAR UNION                                5148 CFS TO 7829 CFS




FORECASTS ARE SELECTED FROM THOSE PREPARED BY THE NWRFC.
FOR FURTHER DETAILS...GRAPHICS...AND STATISTICS REGARDING THE WATER
SUPPLY FORECASTS VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NWRFC.NOAA.GOV/WS (LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.NWRFC.NOAA.GOV/NATURAL (LOWER CASE)

FOR FURTHER DETAILS...GRAPHICS...AND STATISTICS REGARDING THE PEAK
FLOW FORECASTS VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NWRFC.NOAA.GOV/PEAK (LOWER CASE)

$$

WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
JBB



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.