Suppression Forecast
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000
FNAK71 PAFC 240005
FWSAER

Spot Forecast for Hilcorp Gas Line Leak Ice Forecast...Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
405 PM AKDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Forecast is based on incident time of 1500 AKDT on March 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Based on the most recent satellite imagery available...the location
provided in the spot request is located right between an area
averaging 8 to 10 tenths sea ice coverage with sea ice greater
than 1 foot thick...and an area of 4 to 6 tenths very thin grease
ice that stretches from the east coast near Nikiski out to the
location. This ice may melt out during daylight hours and then
refreeze with a paper thin layer of ice during the overnight
hours.

Please note that the tides vary and can cause a dramatic and
somewhat unpredictable change to ice conditions...even on the
hourly time scale. While the forecast below is favorable for the
thickest sea ice to remain a small distance to the west of the
spot forecast location...the ice conditions this time of year in
Cook Inlet can be unpredictable and can rapidly change.

Looking out through the weekend...winds this evening will start
out of the N/NW...becoming N/NE overnight and into tomorrow. Winds
are expected to remain out of the N to NE through Sunday for the
spot forecast location. These winds are favorable to keep the
thicker and higher concentration sea ice to the west. In
addition...daytime highs in the upper 20s to low 30s coupled with
mainly cloud free skies should aid in melting very thin ice that
will continue to form each night as lows drop to the single digits
to teens.


.TONIGHT...

Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 8 above.
Max humidity........91 percent.
Surface winds.......Northwest 5 to 10 mph.

TIME (AKDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
Temp............25        20        16        14
RH..............76        89        90        80
Surface wind....NW 3G5    NW 6G10    N 9G15    N 9G20

.FRIDAY...

Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 25.
Min humidity........67 percent.
Surface winds.......Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.

TIME (AKDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
Temp............12        8         19        23
RH..............75        76        70        68
Surface wind....N 8G25    NE 9G20   NE 9G25   NE 6G15

$$
Forecaster...Heim/Niebuhr
Requested by...Mike Evans
Type of request...OTHER
.TAG 1705088.0/AER
.EMAIL mike.evans@alaska.gov



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