Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS73 KAPX 291155
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR SUNRISE UNIT 4...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
755 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON APRIL 29.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...LARGE AREA OF STRONG PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
PARKED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVER
CENTRAL MICHIGAN. LIFT AND RESULTING LIGHT PRECIP IS GRADUALLY
WEAKENING AS REMNANTS OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO EXIT SE AWAY
FROM LWR MICHIGAN. RH WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TODAY TO AROUND 35 PERCENT
BY MID AFTERNOON...EASTERLY WINDS TODAY SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS BELOW 20 MPH. RH SATURDAY WILL DROP A
BIT MORE...TO NEAR 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
NEARLY THE SAME AS TODAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURE.........43 AT IGNITION...MAX 55.
RH..................61 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 30 TO 35 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHEAST AT 4 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST
                    5 TO 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 TO 8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 500-1800 FT
                    AGL INCREASING TO 4300-5200 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 2.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (200) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (400).

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........95  95  95  95  95  94  90  87
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............43  46  48  50  52  54  55  55
RH..............61  55  51  47  44  41  37  35
20 FT WIND DIR..NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD..4   4   4   5   5   5   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.5   10  10  10  10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
SMOKE DISP......200 300 300 400 400 400 300 300

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 31.
RH..................MAX 78 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 3 TO 5
                    MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300-5000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 700-1200 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........MIN 2.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........83  80  78  74  66  59  51  43  39  39  38  37
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW
TEMP............54  52  50  47  44  41  39  37  36  35  33  33
RH..............39  42  46  50  56  62  67  72  75  78  78  78
20 FT WIND DIR..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD..6   6   5   4   4   3   3   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  10  10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5
HAINES INDEX....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
SMOKE DISP......300 200 200 200 200 200 100 100 0   0   0   0

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 58.
RH..................MIN 30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 9 MPH WITH
                    OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH IN THE LATE
                    MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 12 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5400-6000 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........MAX 2.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(700).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........36     35     36     37     38     44
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............33     36     46     53     57     58
RH..............78     75     51     39     34     31
20 FT WIND......E 2    E 3    E 5    E 6    E 7    E 7
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      10     15     15     15
HAINES INDEX....2      2      2      2      2      2
SMOKE DISP......0      0      300    600    500    600

$$
FORECASTER...KEVIN FARINA
REQUESTED BY...HOLLY MILLER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160429.SUNRI.02/APX


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