Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR 2016 COLORADO AVIATION SUMMIT...CITY OF BOULDER FIRE DEPARTMENT-WILDLAND DIVISION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
354 AM MDT WED MAY 18 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 MDT ON MAY 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY
THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.  BY EARLY
AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
THROUGH THE DAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG UNTIL 0900. SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 0900. SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE
                    OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY
                    CLOUDY(30-40%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 2100...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 38.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN
                    WEST AROUND 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2100...THEN 1.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    1200...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN
                    UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR 2016 COLORADO AVIATION SUMMIT.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

05/18-03 80 13  3 36 96   W  2  2 2 1   W 12  1889   S  5  8444 P
05/18-04 80 13  3 36 92   W  2  2 2 1   W 12  1655 SSW  5  6863 P
05/18-05 80 13  3 35 93   W  3  3 2 1   W 12  1421 WSW  5  5434 P
05/18-06 71 12  2 35 92   W  3  3 2 1 WNW 10  1187   W  5  4155 P
05/18-07 71 12  2 38 85  NW  3  3 2 1   W 10  1713   W  3  5218 P
05/18-08 71 12  2 41 80  NE  3  3 2 1   W 10  2239 WNW  3  5800 P
05/18-09 64 12  2 44 76   E  3  3 2 1   W  9  2766  NW  2  5903 P
05/18-10 64 12  2 47 71   E  5  5 2 1 WNW  8  3631 NNW  2  7170 P
05/18-11 64 12  2 49 69 ESE  5  5 2 1 WNW  8  4496   N  2  8162 P
05/18-12 67 25  5 51 66 ESE  6  6 2 2 WNW  7  5360   N  2  8879 P
05/18-13 67 25  5 53 62 ESE  6  6 2 2  NW  7  5718 NNE  2  9507 P
05/18-14 67 25  5 54 60  SE  6  6 2 2 NNW  8  6075 ENE  2 10140 P
05/18-15 68 27  7 54 59  SE  6  6 2 2 NNW  9  6433   E  2 10778 P
05/18-16 68 27  7 55 56  SE  6  6 2 2   N 10  6054 ESE  2 12577 P
05/18-17 68 27  7 55 55 SSE  5  5 2 2   N 10  5674   S  2 14072 P
05/18-18 72 22  4 54 57   S  5  5 2 3   N 12  5295 SSW  3 15261 P
05/18-19 72 22  4 52 61   S  5  5 2 3   N  9  4189  SW  5 14767 P
05/18-20 72 22  4 49 69  SW  3  3 3 3 NNE  8  3082  SW  5 12849 P
05/18-21 68 22  4 46 76 WSW  3  3 3 1 NNE  7  1976  SW  6  9507 P
05/18-22 68 22  4 44 81 WSW  3  3 3 1   N  7  1823  SW  6  8487 P
05/18-23 68 22  4 43 82   W  3  3 3 1   N  9  1671  SW  5  7514 P
05/19-00 34  4  1 42 82   W  3  3 3 1   N 12  1518 WSW  5  6589 P
05/19-01 34  4  1 41 83   W  3  3 3 1   N 15  1460 WSW  6  6884 P
05/19-02 34  4  1 40 84   W  5  5 3 1   N 18  1401   W  6  7136 P
05/19-03 34  4  1 40 82   W  5  5 3 1 NNW 20  1343   W  6  7344 P
05/19-04 34  4  1 39 85   W  5  5 3 1 NNW 20  1254   W  7  7854 P
05/19-05 34  4  1 38 88   W  6  6 3 1 NNW 17  1166 WNW  8  8223 P
05/19-06 45 13  3 39 85   W  6  6 3 2 NNW 15  1077 WNW  9  8452 P
05/19-07 45 13  3 42 79   W  5  5 3 2 NNW 15  1721 WNW  8 11875 P
05/19-08 45 13  3 46 70   W  3  3 3 2 NNW 15  2366 WNW  7 14074 P
05/19-09 45 13  3 51 61   W  3  3 3 2 NNW 15  3010 WNW  6 15800 P
05/19-10 45 13  3 55 56 WSW  3  3 3 2  NW 15  5177 WNW  6 24814 P
05/19-11 45 13  3 59 51   S  5  5 3 2  NW 14  7344 WNW  5 31856 P
05/19-12 75 32 11 62 48 SSE  5  5 3 4  NW 13  9511 WNW  5 36924 P
05/19-13 75 32 11 63 47 SSE  5  5 3 4 WNW 13  9364   W  7 52340  F
05/19-14 75 32 11 64 46 SSE  5  5 2 4 WNW 13  9218   W  8 67256   G
05/19-15 75 32 11 64 46 SSE  5  5 2 4   W 14  9071 WSW 10 81670   G
05/19-16 75 32 11 64 46   S  5  5 2 4 WNW 17  8396 WSW 12 86282   G
05/19-17 75 32 11 63 47   S  5  5 3 4 WNW 21  7721 WSW 14 89174   G
05/19-18 46 32 11 62 48   S  5  5 3 4 WNW 24  7046 WSW 15 90348   G
05/19-19 46 32 11 59 52 SSW  5  5 3 4 WNW 22  5188 WSW 13 59486  F
05/19-20 46 32 11 56 56  SW  5  5 3 4 WNW 18  3330 WSW 12 33664 P
05/19-21 46 32 11 53 61 WSW  5  5 3 4 WNW 16  1472 WSW 10 12885 P
05/19-22 46 32 11 50 67 WSW  5  5 3 4 WNW 17  1325 WSW 10 12344 P
05/19-23 46 32 11 48 70   W  6  6 3 4 WNW 17  1178 WSW 12 11638 P
05/20-00 23  4  1 47 71   W  6  6 3 1 WNW 18  1030   W 12 10765 P
05/20-01 23  4  1 46 71   W  7  7 3 1 WNW 16  1133   W 13 13009 P
05/20-02 23  4  1 46 70   W  8  8 3 1 WNW 14  1236   W 15 15466 P
05/20-03 23  4  1 45 71   W  8 13 3 1  NW 12  1338   W 16 18135 P
05/20-04 23  4  1 43 74   W  8  8 3 1 WNW 10  1320   W 15 17519 P
05/20-05 23  4  1 41 79   W  7  7 3 1 WNW  8  1301   W 15 16913 P
05/20-06 25  2  0 41 79   W  6  6 3 1 WNW  6  1282   W 15 16317 P
05/20-07 25  2  0 45 70   W  6  6 3 1   W  6  1836   W 14 21897 P
05/20-08 25  2  0 50 60   W  5  5 3 1 WSW  6  2391   W 13 26589 P
05/20-09 25  2  0 55 53   W  5  5 3 1  SW  6  2945   W 12 30391 P
05/20-10 25  2  0 60 46  SW  5  5 3 1  SW 10  5612 WSW 12 53331  F
05/20-11 25  2  0 64 43   S  5  5 3 1 WSW 14  8278  SW 10 71917   G
05/20-12 76 30  9 66 42 SSE  5  5 3 4 WSW 17 10945 SSW  9 86148   G
05/20-13 76 30  9 68 40 SSE  5  5 3 4 WSW 17 10900 SSW 10 93159   G
05/20-14 76 30  9 69 39 SSE  6  6 3 4 WSW 18 10855 SSW 10100109    V
05/20-15 76 30  9 70 38 SSE  6  6 3 4 WSW 18 10810 SSW 12106999    V
05/20-16 76 30  9 70 37 SSE  6  6 3 4 WSW 17 10234 SSW 13109309    V
05/20-17 76 30  9 70 37   S  6  6 3 4   W 16  9657 SSW 13110716    V
05/20-18 45 30  9 68 39   S  6  6 3 4   W 15  9080 SSW 14111219    V
05/20-19 45 30  9 66 41   S  6  6 3 4 WSW 14  6733 SSW 14 79388   G
05/20-20 45 30  9 62 47  SW  5  5 3 4 WSW 13  4386 SSW 13 49707  F
05/20-21 45 30  9 58 53 WSW  5  5 3 4  SW 12  2040 SSW 13 22177 P
05/20-22 45 30  9 55 58 WSW  5  5 3 4  SW 14  2041 SSW 12 19963 P
05/20-23 45 30  9 53 60 WSW  5  5 3 4 SSW 15  2042 SSW 10 17747 P
05/21-00 20  1  0 52 61 WSW  5  5 3 1 SSW 17  2043 SSW  9 15527 P
05/21-01 20  1  0 51 62 WSW  5  5 3 1 SSW 14  2159  SW 10 18631 P
05/21-02 20  1  0 49 65   W  6  6 3 1 SSW 10  2274 WSW 12 21973 P
05/21-03 20  1  0 48 67   W  6  6 3 1   S  7  2390   W 13 25553 P
05/21-04 20  1  0 46 71   W  6  6 3 1   S  8  2154   W 13 22893 P
05/21-05 20  1  0 45 73   W  6  6 3 1   S  9  1918   W 13 20262 P
05/21-06 38  4  1 46 71   W  6  6 3 1   S 12  1682   W 13 17662 P

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...RPK
REQUESTED BY...ERIN ROBERT DOYLE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160514.2016C.01/BOU


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