Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FNUS75 KBOU 161249
FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR SAND SPRINGS...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
549 AM MST MON JAN 16 2017

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 MST ON JANUARY 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A WIDE REACHING STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE MOISTURE INTO
EASTERN COLORADO AND UP AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS. THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION PRODUCED BY THIS STORM WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS WITH THE STORM CENTER TODAY, PLACING
NORTHEAST COLORADO ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION
SHIELD. THAT MEANS ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF WET
SNOW FOR THE BURN AREA THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. COULD SEE
ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW BY MIDDAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
WIND. THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE STORM VEERING AWAY FROM
COLORADO...WE SHOULD SEE SNOWFALL QUICKLY DECLINE AND BY LATE
AFTERNOON PARTIAL CLEARING WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING DOWN FROM
WYOMING. OVERNIGHT...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR ALLOWING
STRONG SURFACE BASED INVERSIONS TO FORM IN LOW LYING AREA. THESE
AREAS COULD SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG FORM LATE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 1100, THEN A
                    DECREASING CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH THE
                    AFTERNOON WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 28.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5-9 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600-2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 15-25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1200, THEN FAIR UNTIL 1500, THEN
                    POOR.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45%) UNTIL 2000, THEN
                    CLEARING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 19.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE UP TO 5 MPH UNTIL 2300, THEN SOUTHWEST
                    4-7 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2000 FT AGL UNTIL 2300, THEN BELOW 1000 FT
                    AGL UNTIL 0200, THEN 1000-1200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL 2300, THEN WEST.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 44.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...WARMER, CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS
AROUND 50. WEST WINDS 6-9 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS 5-10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S.
WEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR SAND SPRINGS.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

01/16-07 98 83 73 24 92   N  7  7 2 1  NE 23  1787   N 22 33689 P
01/16-08 97 79 66 24 92   N  8 13 2 1  NE 25  1890   N 22 36596 P
01/16-09 97 72 56 25 92   N  9 15 2 1  NE 25  1981   N 22 37388 P
01/16-10 96 64 44 25 92   N  9 15 2 1  NE 24  2073   N 21 38089 P
01/16-11 95 57 33 26 88   N  9 15 2 1  NE 24  2165   N 21 38699 P
01/16-12 93 47 23 26 88 NNE  9 15 2 1  NE 23  2322   N 20 40124  F
01/16-13 90 37 15 27 85 NNE  8 13 2 1  NE 21  2480   N 20 41359  F
01/16-14 87 27  7 28 81 NNE  7  7 2 1  NE 20  2638   N 18 42404  F
01/16-15 84 21  4 28 78 NNE  6  6 2 1  NE 18  2419   N 16 34312 P
01/16-16 81 14  3 26 78 NNE  5  5 2 1  NE 17  2199   N 14 27048 P
01/16-17 78  8  2 25 78 NNE  3  3 2 1 NNE 17  1980   N 12 20613 P
01/16-18 72  7  1 24 74 NNW  3  3 2 1  NE 17  1719   N 10 14701 P
01/16-19 66  6  1 23 77   W  2  2 2 1  NE 17  1458 NNW  8  9758 P
01/16-20 61  5  1 21 77 WSW  2  2 2 1  NE 17  1198 NNW  6  5786 P
01/16-21 55  4  1 20 77 WSW  2  2 2 1  NE 15  1076  NW  5  4429 P
01/16-22 49  3  1 20 77 WSW  3  3 2 1 ENE 13   954   W  3  3245 P
01/16-23 43  1  0 20 77 WSW  3  3 2 1 ENE 10   832   W  3  2236 P
01/17-00 37  1  0 20 77 WSW  3  3 2 1 ENE 10   889   W  3  2831 P
01/17-01 32  0  0 21 71 WSW  5  5 2 1  NE 10   945 WSW  5  3483 P
01/17-02 26  0  0 21 74 WSW  5  5 2 1  NE  9  1001 WSW  5  4191 P
01/17-03 20  0  0 21 81 WSW  6  6 2 1 NNE  9  1082 WSW  5  4164 P
01/17-04 15  1  0 21 77 WSW  6  6 2 1 NNE  9  1162 WSW  5  4083 P
01/17-05 25  1  0 20 74 WSW  7  9 2 1 NNE  9  1242   W  3  3948 P
01/17-06 25  1  0 19 77 WSW  7  9 3 1   N 14  1151   W  5  4741 P
01/17-07 25  1  0 19 78   W  7  9 3 1   N 18  1060   W  6  5363 P
01/17-08 25  1  0 21 74   W  7  9 4 1   N 23   969   W  7  6146 P
01/17-09 25  1  0 25 67 WSW  6  9 4 1   N 23  1156   W  7  7089 P
01/17-10 25  1  0 31 57 WSW  6  8 5 1 NNE 22  1343 WNW  7  7955 P
01/17-11  3  0  0 37 48 WSW  5  7 5 1 NNE 22  1530  NW  7  8743 P
01/17-12  3  0  0 42 40 WSW  3  7 5 1 NNE 20  1962  NW  7 12096 P
01/17-13  3  0  0 44 37  SW  3  6 5 1   N 18  2394  NW  8 15838 P
01/17-14  3  0  0 44 36  SW  3  6 5 1   N 16  2826  NW  8 19969 P
01/17-15  3  0  0 41 41  SW  3  6 4 1   N 16  2218  NW  7 14404 P
01/17-16  3  0  0 36 49 WSW  3  7 4 1   N 16  1609  NW  7  9533 P
01/17-17  7  0  0 31 58 WSW  5  7 3 1   N 17  1000 WNW  6  5356 P
01/17-18  7  0  0 28 60 WSW  6  8 3 1   N 16  1017  NW  7  5788 P
01/17-19  7  0  0 27 56   W  6  9 2 1   N 16  1033  NW  7  6232 P
01/17-20  7  0  0 25 55   W  7  9 2 1   N 16  1050  NW  7  6687 P
01/17-21  7  0  0 24 51   W  7  9 2 1   N 17  1099  NW  7  6380 P
01/17-22  7  0  0 22 50   W  7  9 2 1   N 17  1149 WNW  6  6017 P
01/17-23 10  1  0 21 49   W  7  9 2 1   N 17  1198 WNW  6  5598 P
01/18-00 10  1  0 21 51   W  7  9 2 1   N 17  1247 WNW  6  6226 P
01/18-01 10  1  0 22 53   W  8 10 2 1   N 17  1296 WNW  6  6886 P
01/18-02 10  1  0 22 57   W  8 15 2 1   N 16  1345 WNW  7  7577 P
01/18-03 10  1  0 23 54   W  9 16 2 1   N 17  1323   W  7  8099 P
01/18-04 10  1  0 24 51   W  9 18 2 1   N 17  1301   W  8  8599 P
01/18-05 14  1  0 24 50   W 10 20 2 1   N 18  1279   W  8  9078 P
01/18-06 14  1  0 22 55   W 10 20 2 1   N 18  1288   W  8  9300 P
01/18-07 14  1  0 22 56   W 10 20 2 1   N 18  1297   W  8  9523 P
01/18-08 14  1  0 24 55   W 10 20 2 1   N 18  1306   W  8  9750 P
01/18-09 14  1  0 29 50   W  9 18 2 1   N 18  1708 WNW  8 12221 P
01/18-10 14  1  0 36 43   W  9 16 2 1   N 18  2110  NW  8 14443 P
01/18-11  9  1  0 43 36   W  8 15 2 1   N 17  2512  NW  8 16416 P
01/18-12  9  1  0 49 31   W  8 15 2 1   N 17  3538 NNW  9 28324 P
01/18-13  9  1  0 52 29   W  8 15 2 1   N 17  4563 NNW 10 43251  F
01/18-14  9  1  0 52 29   W  8 15 2 1   N 17  5589 NNW 13 61197   G
01/18-15  9  1  0 49 34   W  8 15 2 1   N 16  4384  NW 12 41708  F
01/18-16  9  1  0 44 42   W  7  9 2 1 NNW 16  3180   W  9 25681 P
01/18-17  8  0  0 40 48   W  7  9 2 1 NNW 16  1975 WSW  8 13115 P
01/18-18  8  0  0 36 55   W  7  9   1
01/18-19  8  0  0 34 56   W  6  8   1
01/18-20  8  0  0 32 58   W  6  8   1
01/18-21  8  0  0 30 62   W  6  8   1
01/18-22  8  0  0 27 69   W  7  9   1
01/18-23 10  0  0 26 71   W  7  9   1
01/19-00 10  0  0 26 70   W  7  9   1
01/19-01 10  0  0 28 64   W  8 15   1
01/19-02 10  0  0 28 63   W  8 15   1
01/19-03 10  0  0 28 61   W  8 15   1
01/19-04 10  0  0 27 61   W  8 15   1
01/19-05 12  0  0 26 63   W  8 15   1

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...BAKER
REQUESTED BY...TOM MCCOLLUM
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1700434.0/BOU


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