Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FNUS75 KBOU 091244
FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR WAPITI 2 RX FIRE...BOULDER COUNTY SHERIFF'S OFFICE/PARKS AND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
544 AM MST FRI DEC 9 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 MST ON DECEMBER 09.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. AS OF EARLY THIS FRIDAY
MORNING...THE ARCTIC AIR WAS ERODING DOWN THE FOOTHILLS AND THE
INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR WITH GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE RIGHT ON/NEAR
THE BURN SITE. THE TWO AIRMASSES MAY BATTLE ALL DAY OVER THE BURN
AREA...SO WINDS MAY BE VARIABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING
HOWEVER AS THE INVERSION ATTEMPTS TO BREAK OR AT LEAST BECOME
WEAK. A SIMILAR WEATHER SETUP CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY ALTHOUGH IT
WILL LIKELY BE WARMER WITH A HIGHER CHANCE OF GUSTY WINDS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER ARCTIC
FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER
AIR.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%) UNTIL 1300, THEN MOSTLY
                    SUNNY UNTIL 1400, THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 42.
MIN HUMIDITY........45%.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6-11 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE
                    MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700, THEN 1600-2600 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10-20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW .

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 25.
MAX HUMIDITY........78%.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6-7 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10-15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW .

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
                    UNTIL 1100, THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 45.
MIN HUMIDITY........41%.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 7-13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15-20 MPH UNTIL 1100, THEN 20-30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1400, THEN FAIR UNTIL 1500, THEN
                    POOR.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW .

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SUNDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS
AROUND 40. WEST WINDS 5-12 MPH.
.MONDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS 5-13 MPH.
.TUESDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 18. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
30S. WEST WINDS 5-6 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 11. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S.
.THURSDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 15. HIGHS AROUND
30.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR WAPITI 2 RX FIRE.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

12/09-08 49  5  1 28 58   W 12 18 2 1 WNW 51  1022   W 15 13390 P
12/09-09 46  5  1 30 56   W 10 16 2 1 WNW 52  1356   W 14 16872 P
12/09-10 41  6  1 34 51   W 10 16 2 1 WNW 52  1689   W 14 19919 P
12/09-11 36  6  1 37 48   W  9 15 2 1 WNW 53  2022   W 13 22531 P
12/09-12 31  7  1 40 46   W  9 15 2 1 WNW 53  2279   W 14 26679 P
12/09-13 29  7  1 42 45   W  8 13 2 1 WNW 52  2536   W 14 31116 P
12/09-14 31  8  2 42 46 WSW  8 13 2 1 WNW 52  2792   W 15 35843 P
12/09-15 34  8  2 40 49 WSW  8 13 2 1 WNW 55  2284   W 13 24750 P
12/09-16 36  7  1 37 54 WSW  7  7 2 1 WNW 59  1776   W 10 15690 P
12/09-17 37  6  1 34 59 WSW  7  7 2 1 WNW 61  1268   W  8  8664 P
12/09-18 38  5  1 31 65 WSW  7  7 2 1 WNW 58  1339   W  8  9992 P
12/09-19 40  4  1 29 69 WSW  8 13 2 1 WNW 53  1410   W  9 11410 P
12/09-20 41  3  1 28 71   W  8 13 2 1 WNW 49  1481   W 10 12917 P
12/09-21 42  2  0 27 72   W  8 13 2 1 WNW 47  1481   W 10 13033 P
12/09-22 43  1  0 26 74   W  8 13 2 1 WNW 45  1482   W 10 13149 P
12/09-23 44  0  0 26 74   W  7  7 2 1   W 43  1483   W 10 13265 P
12/10-00 44  0  0 25 77 WSW  8 13 2 1   W 46  1376   W 12 13115 P
12/10-01 45  0  0 25 78   W  8 13 2 1   W 48  1268   W 12 12838 P
12/10-02 45  0  0 26 74   W  8 13 2 1   W 51  1161   W 13 12435 P
12/10-03 45  0  0 27 71 WSW  9 15 2 1   W 47  1144   W 13 12583 P
12/10-04 46  0  0 29 66 WSW  9 15 3 1   W 43  1127   W 13 12395 P
12/10-05 46 18  4 30 63 WSW  9 15 3 1   W 39  1109   W 13 12206 P
12/10-06 47 18  4 30 66 WSW 10 17 3 1   W 43  1075   W 14 12820 P
12/10-07 49 18  4 30 69 WSW 12 18 3 1 WNW 45  1040   W 15 13368 P
12/10-08 51 18  4 32 66   W 13 21 3 1 WNW 48  1005   W 16 13853 P
12/10-09 52 18  4 35 63   W 14 21 3 1 WNW 48  1151   W 17 17665 P
12/10-10 54 18  4 39 57   W 14 22 3 1   W 48  1298   W 20 21934 P
12/10-11 57 23  5 42 53   W 14 22 3 1   W 48  1444   W 21 26660 P
12/10-12 57 23  5 44 47   W 14 22 3 1   W 49  1547   W 24 32409 P
12/10-13 57 23  5 45 42   W 14 22 2 1   W 49  1651   W 26 38671 P
12/10-14 57 23  5 44 41 WNW 14 22 2 1   W 51  1754   W 30 45446  F
12/10-15 57 23  5 42 44   W 14 22 2 1   W 45  1631   W 26 38116 P
12/10-16 57 23  5 40 47   W 13 21 3 1   W 38  1507   W 24 31411 P
12/10-17 67 26  6 38 50   W 13 21 3 1   W 31  1384   W 21 25332 P
12/10-18 67 26  6 36 53   W 12 20 3 1   W 35  1386   W 20 23086 P
12/10-19 67 26  6 35 54   W 12 18 2 1   W 38  1389   W 17 20830 P
12/10-20 67 26  6 34 56   W 10 16 2 1   W 41  1392   W 15 18566 P
12/10-21 67 26  6 32 62   W  9 15 2 1   W 40  1371   W 15 18316 P
12/10-22 67 26  6 31 67   W  8 13 2 1   W 38  1350   W 15 18065 P
12/10-23 77 28  8 30 72   W  7  7 2 1 WSW 37  1329   W 15 17813 P
12/11-00 77 28  8 30 73   W  7  7 2 1   W 41  1352   W 15 17362 P
12/11-01 77 28  8 30 75   W  7  7 2 1   W 46  1375   W 14 16885 P
12/11-02 77 28  8 30 75   W  7  7 2 1   W 51  1398   W 14 16383 P
12/11-03 77 28  8 29 78   W  7  7 2 1   W 47  1374   W 12 13709 P
12/11-04 77 28  8 28 80   W  7  7 2 1   W 44  1349   W  9 11120 P
12/11-05 81 35 13 27 81   W  7  7 2 1 WSW 40  1325   W  8  8617 P
12/11-06 81 35 13 27 76   W  7  7 2 1 WSW 41  1276   W  6  6256 P
12/11-07 81 35 13 28 68   W  7  7 2 1 WSW 44  1227   W  3  4051 P
12/11-08 81 35 13 30 61 WNW  7  7 2 1 WSW 45  1179   W  2  2002 P
12/11-09 81 35 13 32 58 WNW  7  7 2 1   W 46  1602   W  5  6436 P
12/11-10 81 35 13 34 57   W  7  7 3 1   W 48  2026 WSW  7 12834 P
12/11-11 69 22  4 36 54   W  8 13 3 1   W 49  2449  SW 10 21195 P
12/11-12 69 22  4 38 46   W  9 15 3 1   W 44  4120 WSW 13 47132  F
12/11-13 69 22  4 38 41   W 10 17 3 1   W 39  5791   W 16 82378   G
12/11-14 69 22  4 37 38   W 12 18 3 1   W 33  7462   W 20126933    V
12/11-15 69 22  4 34 43   W 12 18 3 1   W 35  6027   W 20101024    V
12/11-16 69 22  4 31 50   W 12 18 2 1   W 37  4591   W 20 75824   G
12/11-17 45 14  3 29 55   W 12 18 2 1   W 38  3155   W 18 51332  F
12/11-18 45 14  3 29 53   W 12 18 2 1   W 41  3484   W 23 69623   G
12/11-19 45 14  3 30 49   W 10 17 2 1 WNW 44  3814   W 28 90357   G
12/11-20 45 14  3 29 49   W 10 16 2 1 WNW 46  4143 WNW 31113536    V
12/11-21 45 14  3 26 54   W  9 15 2 1 WNW 46  3458   W 26 81197   G
12/11-22 45 14  3 22 63   W  8 14 2 1 WNW 45  2773   W 23 54233  F
12/11-23 32 11  2 20 68   W  8 13 2 1 WNW 44  2088   W 18 32645 P
12/12-00 32 11  2 21 63   W  8 13 2 1 WNW 46  2762   W 20 46993  F
12/12-01 32 11  2 24 53   W  9 14 2 1 WNW 47  3435 WNW 21 63205   G
12/12-02 32 11  2 25 50   W  9 15 2 1 WNW 48  4108 WNW 23 81283   G
12/12-03 32 11  2 24 53   W  9 15 2 1 WNW 51  3328 WNW 21 60078   G
12/12-04 32 11  2 21 62   W  9 15 2 1 WNW 52  2548 WNW 18 41579  F
12/12-05 30 10  2 20 68   W  9 15 2 1 WNW 54  1768 WNW 17 25786 P

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...BARJENBRUCH
REQUESTED BY...JAY STALNACKER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1603674.11/BOU


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