Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FNUS75 KBOU 281407
FWSBOU

Spot Forecast for Elkhorn Creek Unit 1 Piles...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
706 AM MST Tue Feb 28 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 MST on February 28.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Bands of light to moderate snow over the mountains
will fall today, possibly bringing periods of light snow to the
burn. Looking at the limited observations around, it seems that
there may have been around an inch or less that has fallen over the
last 24 hours. Forecasted amounts for the next 24 hours will likely
be around another inch, though could be up to 2 inches if one
heavier band develops over the burn. The best chance for
accumulating snowfall will be 1200-1500. A concern may be with the
winds later today, and especially tonight. Gusts of up to 30 mph are
expected today, but then will increase tonight as downsloping
subsident air pushes down the foothills. Gusts up to 50 mph are
forecasted tonight. After another cool and windy day Wednesday,
weather will then become drier and warmer through the end of the
week, with lighter winds.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy until 1600, then partly
                    cloudy(50-60%). Slight chance of snow showers
                    until 1100, then chance of snow showers.
CWR.................10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 28.
Min humidity........51%.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7-13 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
Mixing height.......Below 1000 FT AGL until 0900, then 4900-5900 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10-20 mph until 1100, then 25-35 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1000, then fair until 1100, then
                    good until 1200, then very good until 1400,
                    then excellent.
Haines Index........3 very low .

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy(35-45%). Chance of snow showers
                    until 1900, then slight chance of snow showers
                    until 0200.
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 12.
Max humidity........64%.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 13-25 mph with gusts to 50 mph.
Mixing height.......5000-6000 ft AGL until 1900, then 3000-4000 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....West 45-60 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent until 2000, then very good until
                    2200, then excellent until 0400, then very
                    good.
Haines Index........3 very low .

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 28.
Min humidity........42%.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 14-23 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
Mixing height.......2000-3000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 45-55 mph until 1100, then 35-45 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good until 0600, then good.
Haines Index........5 moderate.


Fire Weather Table for Elkhorn Creek Unit 1 Piles.

+++  Data in the following table has been sampled directly from the
     forecast database.  Values in the table may vary slightly from
     information in the narrative forecast.  Feedback welcome.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

02/28-07 71 22  4 19 70  SW  5  5 2 1 WSW 41   800   W 13  9045 P
02/28-08 77 22  4 21 66 WSW  5  5 2 1 WSW 39   775   W 12  7698 P
02/28-09 82 22  4 22 61   W  6  6 2 1 WSW 39  1991   W 15 25643 P
02/28-10 76 24  5 25 56   W  7  7 2 1 WSW 39  3208   W 18 50748  F
02/28-11 74 26  6 28 51 WNW  9  9 2 1 WSW 40  4424   W 22 83013   G
02/28-12 71 26  6 28 51   W 10 10 2 1 WSW 46  4907   W 25107774    V
02/28-13 82 26  6 27 52   W 13 13 3 1 WSW 52  5389   W 29135623    V
02/28-14 81 28  8 25 55   W 14 22 3 1 WSW 58  5871   W 32166561     E
02/28-15 70 30  9 24 53   W 15 24 3 1 WSW 56  5917   W 37187537     E
02/28-16 56 30  9 22 54   W 16 25 2 1   W 56  5962   W 40208815     E
02/28-17 46 27  7 20 54   W 17 28 2 1   W 55  6007   W 44230395     E
02/28-18 37 25  5 18 56   W 17 28 2 1   W 60  5045   W 45197179     E
02/28-19 46 22  4 16 58   W 17 28 2 1   W 63  4082   W 46162547     E
02/28-20 55 20  4 15 58   W 17 28 2 1 WNW 68  3119   W 47126499    V
02/28-21 55 17  3 15 56   W 18 30 2 1 WNW 68  3436   W 48145959    V
02/28-22 56 16  3 14 57   W 21 33 2 1 WNW 67  3753   W 51166636     E
02/28-23 56 15  3 14 56   W 23 37 2 1 WNW 67  4071 WNW 53188530     E
03/01-00 49 14  3 14 56   W 24 39 2 1 WNW 66  3957 WNW 53182939     E
03/01-01 43 12  2 14 57   W 25 40 2 1 WNW 66  3844 WNW 53177367     E
03/01-02 36  9  2 13 61   W 25 40 2 1 WNW 66  3730 WNW 53171814     E
03/01-03 32  6  1 13 61   W 25 43 3 1  NW 61  3282   W 53150079     E
03/01-04 25  3  1 12 64   W 25 48 3 1  NW 56  2833   W 52128817    V
03/01-05 18  2  0 12 61   W 25 49 4 1  NW 52  2385   W 52107795    V
03/01-06 17  2  0 12 61   W 25 40 4 1  NW 45  2113   W 49 90723   G
03/01-07 16  2  0 12 61   W 24 39 5 1 WNW 37  1840   W 47 74879   G
03/01-08 16  2  0 14 56   W 24 39 5 1 WNW 30  1568   W 44 60263   G
03/01-09 15  2  0 17 51   W 24 39 5 1 WNW 35  1841   W 44 70369   G
03/01-10 14  2  0 21 45   W 23 37 4 1  NW 40  2114   W 44 80358   G
03/01-11 13  0  0 24 44   W 23 37 4 1  NW 45  2387   W 44 90232   G
03/01-12 16  0  0 27 42   W 22 35 4 1  NW 43  2617   W 41 93869   G
03/01-13 18  0  0 28 42   W 22 35 5 1  NW 40  2847   W 39 96621   G
03/01-14 21  0  0 28 44   W 21 33 5 1  NW 38  3076   W 37 98489   G
03/01-15 24  0  0 27 46   W 21 33 5 1 WNW 39  2955   W 36 92871   G
03/01-16 26  0  0 26 48   W 21 33 5 1 WNW 40  2833   W 36 87396   G
03/01-17 29  0  0 24 50   W 21 33 5 1 WNW 43  2712   W 35 82063   G
03/01-18 29  0  0 21 57   W 21 33 5 1 WNW 44  2467   W 37 78003   G
03/01-19 29  0  0 19 59   W 21 33 4 1 WNW 45  2222   W 38 73277   G
03/01-20 28  0  0 18 62   W 21 33 4 1 WNW 46  1977   W 39 67885   G
03/01-21 28  0  0 17 64   W 21 33 4 1 WNW 44  1881   W 39 64494   G
03/01-22 28  0  0 17 64   W 20 31 4 1 WNW 41  1784   W 39 61112   G
03/01-23 27  0  0 18 62   W 20 31 4 1 WNW 40  1688   W 39 57739  F
03/02-00 27  0  0 18 62   W 18 30 4 1 WNW 41  1577   W 38 51730  F
03/02-01 26  0  0 18 62   W 18 30 3 1 WNW 44  1465   W 36 46032  F
03/02-02 26  0  0 18 62   W 17 28 3 1 WNW 46  1354   W 35 40644  F
03/02-03 26  0  0 17 64   W 16 25 3 1 WNW 47  1292   W 33 37440 P
03/02-04 25  0  0 17 64   W 16 25 2 1 WNW 48  1231   W 32 34365 P
03/02-05 25  0  0 16 67   W 15 24 2 1 WNW 49  1169   W 31 31419 P
03/02-06 26  0  0 16 67   W 15 24 2 1 WNW 51  1288   W 30 33729 P
03/02-07 28  0  0 17 64   W 14 22 2 1 WNW 52  1408   W 29 35872 P
03/02-08 29  0  0 19 62   W 14 22 2 1 WNW 53  1527   W 29 37848 P
03/02-09 31  0  0 22 57   W 14 22 2 1 WNW 53  2158   W 30 55202  F
03/02-10 33  0  0 27 50   W 13 21 2 1  NW 53  2789   W 30 73562   G
03/02-11 34  0  0 30 47   W 13 21 2 1  NW 53  3420   W 31 92928   G
03/02-12 34  0  0 33 43   W 12 18 2 1  NW 51  4030   W 30105298    V
03/02-13 34  0  0 34 43   W 12 18 2 1 WNW 48  4640   W 29116392    V
03/02-14 34  0  0 34 43   W 10 16 2 1 WNW 46  5250   W 28126211    V
03/02-15 33  0  0 33 45   W  9 15 2 1 WNW 46  4822   W 26111695    V
03/02-16 33  0  0 32 45   W  9 15 2 1  NW 46  4393   W 25 97927   G
03/02-17 33  0  0 29 49   W  8 13 2 1  NW 47  3964   W 24 84909   G
03/02-18 32  0  0 27 50   W  8 13 2 1  NW 47  3033   W 24 62745   G
03/02-19 32  0  0 24 55   W  9 15 2 1 WNW 48  2103   W 23 41949  F
03/02-20 31  0  0 21 59   W  9 15 2 1 WNW 48  1172   W 22 22522 P
03/02-21 30  0  0 20 59   W  9 15 2 1 WNW 51  1104   W 22 21439 P
03/02-22 30  0  0 20 59 WSW 10 16 3 1 WNW 54  1036   W 23 20328 P
03/02-23 29  0  0 20 59 WSW 10 16 3 1 WNW 56   968   W 23 19190 P
03/03-00 30  0  0 20 59 WSW 10 16 3 1 WNW 59   925   W 24 19373 P
03/03-01 30  0  0 20 59   W 12 18 2 1 WNW 60   883   W 25 19461 P
03/03-02 31  0  0 20 59   W 12 18 2 1 WNW 62   840   W 26 19455 P
03/03-03 31  0  0 20 59   W 12 18 3 1 WNW 64   854   W 28 20195 P
03/03-04 32  0  0 20 56   W 12 18 4 1 WNW 67   867   W 28 20950 P
03/03-05 32  0  0 20 56 WSW 12 18 5 1 WNW 69   881   W 29 21717 P

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...KRIEDERMAN
REQUESTED BY...Weston Toll
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702991.1/BOU



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