Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FNUS71 KCTP 230825
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for SGL 169 8/22/17...PA Game Commission
National Weather Service State College PA
425 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EDT on August 23.

If conditions become unrepresentative...
contact the National Weather Service in State College.

.DISCUSSION...

A large area of Canadian high pressure will build southeast
and bring us a several day string of unseasonably cool and
dry weather for the latter part of this week and the entire
weekend.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds...becoming northwest 5
                    to 7 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......700-2500 ft AGL...increasing to 5400-6900 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 8 to 13 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4...or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........36  30  27  25  24  22  18  17  16  14  14
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............68  69  72  74  75  77  78  79  79  80  78
RH..............87  84  73  66  62  56  50  47  47  44  47
20 FT wind dir..W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   NW
20 FT wind spd..1   2   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   6   5
20 FT wind gust.    10  10  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 1.9 2.5 3.3 4.0 4.7 5.4 5.9 6.6 6.9 6.6
Transp wind dir.NW  N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.10  12  12  12  10  12  12  12  13  13  13
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 56.
Max humidity........83 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 6 mph early in the
                    evening...becoming light and variable.
Mixing height.......4700 ft AGL...decreasing to 0-300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 3 to 12 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4...or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........11  5   8   8   8   3   3   3   3   3   3   7
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............75  73  69  67  66  65  64  63  62  61  61  59
RH..............52  55  63  68  68  70  73  75  78  78  78  83
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..5   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.10  10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...4.7 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.12  9   7   7   7   7   6   6   5   5   3   3
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent)...then becoming partly
                    sunny (55-65 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds.
Mixing height.......0-1800 ft AGL...increasing to 3800-5700 ft AGL
                    late in the morning...then increasing to
                    6000-7900 ft AGL in the afternoon...decreasing
                    to 4500 ft AGL late.
Transport winds.....Northwest 2 to 7 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4...or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........7   7   12  12  12  28  28  28  54  54  54  70
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............57  59  61  63  65  67  69  70  71  72  73  72
RH..............90  87  84  78  75  70  66  61  59  57  55  57
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..2   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.5               5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 0.3 1.8 3.8 5.7 7.0 7.8 7.9 7.3 6.0 4.5
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.3   2   2   3   6   6   7   7   6   7   6   6
Haines index....3   4   4   4   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4

$$
Forecaster...WFO-CTP/Dangelo
Requested by...Eric R. Horsh
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1714703.0/CTP
.EMAIL ehorsh@pa.gov



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