Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FNUS71 KCTP 242035
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR TEXAS BLOCK HOUSE...DCNR-FORESTRY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
435 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1622 EDT ON JULY 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...

DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
A SURGE OF HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

A WEAK COLD FRONT BUT POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND EVEN SOME SCATTERED, GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
&&

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN
                    THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.
MAX HUMIDITY........81 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING WEST 5 TO 6
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
LAL.................1-8 STRIKES UNTIL 2000...THEN 16-25 STRIKES
                    UNTIL 0200...THEN 1-8 STRIKES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700-5600 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 400-2100 FT
                    AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 1 TO 9 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............55  62  65  67  71  73  73  72  72  72  72  72
WEATHER COV.........SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC SCT SCT SCT ISO ISO ISO ISO
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC SCT SCT SCT ISO ISO ISO ISO
TEMP................88  88  88  84  81  77  76  74  73  72  73  72
RH..................33  33  31  41  51  67  69  74  76  81  79  81
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD......3   3   3   3   3   3   3   5   5   5   5   6
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  5   5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......5.6 3.7 2.1 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....9   7   6   7   8   8   7   5   2   1   1   2
LAL.................2   2   4   4   4   4   4   4   2   2   2   2
HAINES INDEX........5   5   5   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN
                    THE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS LIKELY
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90.
MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
LAL.................1-8 STRIKES UNTIL 0700...THEN 9-15 STRIKES
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN 16-25 STRIKES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3200-5000 FT
                    AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO
                    5800-7700 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING
                    TO 4600 FT AGL LATE.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 9 MPH...INCREASING TO 13 TO 20 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............72  72  71  71  71  71  71  71  67  67  67  67
WEATHER COV.........ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT LKY LKY LKY LKY
TEMP................71  71  74  77  79  81  83  84  86  87  89  87
RH..................81  84  76  71  67  65  61  61  57  55  52  55
20 FT WIND DIR......W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD......6   6   6   6   7   7   8   8   8   8   8   7
20 FT WIND GUST.....    10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.2 5.0 6.7 7.7 7.1 5.8 4.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....3   5   7   9   13  15  17  18  20  20  18  17
LAL.................2   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
HAINES INDEX........3   2   2   2   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4

$$
FORECASTER...FITZGERALD
REQUESTED BY...ERIC FRITZINGER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20160724.TEXAS.01/CTP


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