Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FNUS71 KCTP 221300
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for Big Trail RX...DCNR BOF District 12
National Weather Service State College PA
900 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on May 22.

If conditions become unrepresentative...
contact the National Weather Service in State College.

.DISCUSSION...
A weak cold front over the Ohio Valley will be preceded by
occasional showers today. The showers will gradually taper
off from west to east across the state this afternoon and
evening. Expect an additional 1 to 2 tenths of an inch
of rain to fall in most places today.

A period of dry and tranquil weather will follow from
late today through Tuesday as an area of high
pressure drifts northeast and becomes located overhead.

Low pressure at the surface moving northeast from the
southeast states will team up with a potent disturbance
aloft moving southeast from the Great Lakes to bring
periods of showers and unseasonably cool later Wednesday
right through the end of this week.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent)...then becoming partly
                    sunny (55-65 percent). Numerous showers.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 5 mph early in the
                    morning...becoming light and variable...then
                    becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1100-2600 ft AGL...increasing to 3700-4600 ft
                    AGL late.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 15 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 3...or very low.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........93  85  85  83  83  65  55  50
Weather cov.....SCT NUM NUM SCT SCT ISO ISO
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............57  59  60  62  63  64  66  67
RH..............84  80  75  71  68  63  59  55
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  S   S   SW  W   SW
20 FT wind spd..3   2   1   4   5   4   6   5
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.6 2.6 3.7 4.6
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   SW  SW  W   W
Transp wind spd.9   9   9   10  12  13  14  15
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent)...then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 49.
Max humidity........86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 11 mph early in the
                    evening...becoming light and variable.
Mixing height.......3800-5000 ft AGL...decreasing to 300-700 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 6 to 15 mph...decreasing to 3 to 5
                    mph late.
Haines Index........3 to 5...or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........51  54  48  47  47  46  45  44  44  45  48  50
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............65  64  62  60  58  56  54  53  52  51  50  49
RH..............55  55  56  60  66  72  75  76  77  80  83  86
20 FT wind dir..W   SW  W   W   W   NW  W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..9   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  15  10  10  5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...5.0 5.0 4.6 3.8 2.7 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.15  14  13  13  14  14  12  9   7   6   5   3
Haines index....3   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   4   4

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds.
Mixing height.......200-1700 ft AGL...increasing to 5100-5600 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 3 to 5 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4...or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........53  56  57  58  60  62  64  66  68  68  70  72
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............51  52  53  57  61  65  66  68  69  69  69  70
RH..............80  80  77  67  58  52  50  47  45  45  47  45
20 FT wind dir..W   W   SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...0.2 0.3 0.6 1.7 3.0 4.2 4.5 4.6 4.6 5.1 5.5 5.6
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   NE  NE  E   E   SE
Transp wind spd.3   3   3   3   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Haines index....4   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

$$
Forecaster...WFO-CTP/RXR
Requested by...Eric Fritzinger
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1709861.0/CTP
.EMAIL efritzinge@pa.gov



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