Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FNUS71 KCTP 241538
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for Rocky Gap Rx...USFS Allegheny NF
National Weather Service State College PA
1138 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 EDT on April 24.

If conditions become unrepresentative...
contact the National Weather Service in State College.

.DISCUSSION...


An area of low pressure at the surface and aloft will move slowly
north along the Atlantic Coast through mid week. Showers should remain
south of Warren county through the daytime before intermittent
showers move through early tomorrow.
 Winds will be from the southeast with gusts possible through the second
half of the afternoon and into the early evening. Winds will shift
further south east as the night continues into tomorrow.
 RH`s will be around 30 percent this afternoon before recovering overnight
into tomorrow.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph later
                    this afternoon.
Mixing height.......0-1800 ft AGL...increasing to 5400-6600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 13 to 16 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4...or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........26  21  25  30  34  37
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............62  64  65  66  66  66
RH..............37  36  35  34  33  33
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   SE
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   6   6   7
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...5.4 6.0 6.4 6.6 6.5 6.2
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   SE  SE
Transp wind spd.14  14  14  15  15  16
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent)...then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). A slight chance
                    of rain late.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 47.
Max humidity........63 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 6 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......3700-5500 ft AGL...decreasing to 1400-3000 ft
                    AGL in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Southeast 15 to 23 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4...or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........38  39  40  45  51  58  64  71  74  76  80  84
Weather cov.....                                            SCH
Weather type....                                            RN
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............65  61  59  57  56  55  54  54  53  51  51  50
RH..............35  38  40  43  47  49  50  52  54  56  59  63
20 FT wind dir..SE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.15  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...5.5 4.5 3.7 3.0 2.4 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.17  18  18  17  16  15  17  20  22  23  22  21
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). A slight chance
                    of rain early in the morning...then a chance of
                    rain early in the morning.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 62.
Min humidity........65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 7 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph
                    early in the morning.
Mixing height.......600-2300 ft AGL...increasing to 2800-3300 ft
                    AGL late.
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 18 mph...becoming east 21 to 24
                    mph early in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3...or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........88  92  94  92  88  84  79  75  73  73  73  73
Weather cov.....SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............48  48  50  52  54  56  57  58  59  60  61  60
RH..............71  71  68  71  69  66  67  69  69  67  65  67
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   7   7   8   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.15  15  20  20  20  20  20  25  25  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.2 3.3
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  E   E
Transp wind spd.18  15  13  10  10  10  14  17  21  23  24  23
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

$$
Forecaster...Ceru
Requested by...Alyssa Hammond
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707637.1/CTP
.EMAIL alyssahammond@fs.fed.us



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