Suppression Forecast
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FNUS74 KEPZ 131525
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Aspen Park...USFS
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
825 AM MST Wed Dec 13 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 MST on December 13.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure aloft will bring dry weather and mild temperatures
today and again on Thursday. An upper level low pressure system
with a cold front will then move across the region causing very
isolated rain and snow showers Thursday night with cool dry
conditions expected Friday through Sunday afternoon. Another upper
disturbance will produce rain and snow along colder temperatures
again Sunday night and Monday followed by seasonably cool dry
weather next Tuesday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 55.
Min humidity........14 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 7 mph early in
                    the morning.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL increasing to 3300 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 6 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (19,800 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (MST)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM
Sky (%).........7      7      7      7
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1
Temp............36     47     54     55
RH..............27     18     15     15
20 ft wind......NW 5   W 5    W 6    W 6
20 ft wind gust.10     10     10     15
Mix hgt (ft)....600    3300   3300   3300
Transport wind..N 5    NW 2   W 3    W 6
Haines index....4      4      4      4
Vent Rate.......POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 33.
Max humidity........29 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 9 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph early
                    in the morning.
Mixing height.......0-800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 3 to 4 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2,400 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      5 PM   7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM
Sky (%).........3      3      3      3      3      3
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............44     40     39     38     37     34
RH..............22     26     26     26     26     27
20 ft wind......W 7    W 6    W 6    W 6    W 8    W 9
20 ft wind gust.15     10     10     15     15     20
Mix hgt (ft)....800    800    800    BLW100 BLW100 BLW100
Transport wind..W 6    NW 5   NW 3   NW 3   NW 2   NW 2
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
Vent Rate.......POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 54.
Min humidity........15 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 9 mph with gusts to around
                    20 mph shifting to the northeast around 8 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......900 ft AGL increasing to 4400 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 10 to 11 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (35,200 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      5 AM      8 AM      11 AM     2 PM
Sky (%).........23        23        47        47
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).10        10        10        10
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............33        36        48        54
RH..............29        27        17        15
20 FT wind......W 9G20    W 8G15    NW 7G15   NW 6G10
Mix hgt (ft)....900       900       4400      4400
Transport wind..N 3       N 2       NW 8      N 8
Haines index....3         4         4         3
Vent Rate.......POOR      POOR      POOR      POOR

$$
Forecaster...LANEY
Requested by...Billy Trujillo
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1719925.0/EPZ
.EMAIL nmsdc@fs.fed.us



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