Suppression Forecast
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000
FNUS74 KEPZ 271839
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for SEGO DAM...Mescalero BIA
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
1139 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 1200 MST on February 27.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
The region sits between Pacific storms today and will see a minor
break from the strongest winds, however it will continue to be
breezy. Tuesday, the next Pacific storm system moves across the
area bringing very windy conditions with gusts over 60 mph
possible. Increased moisture with the system will keep min RHs
just above critical thresholds. Wednesday and into the latter part
of next week a period of calm, warm and dry weather settles in
over southern New Mexico and west Texas.

&&

...Percentages shown in the sky/weather portion reflect
sky cover amount...

...Mean elevations used to obtain mixing heights as follows:
Zone 110 - Reserve   (5900 ft)
Zone 111 - Deming    (4300 ft)
Zone 112 - Las Cruces(3900 ft)
Zone 113 - Ruidoso   (6900 ft)

Ventilation categories are determined by criteria established
by the state of New Mexico.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 55.
Min humidity........20 percent.
Wind (20 FT)........West winds increasing to 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up
                    to 35 mph.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......2500-3000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 30 knots.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (62300 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........15     23     23
WEATHER COV.....NONE   NONE   NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........NONE   NONE   NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1
TEMP............51     55     52
RH..............26     20     22
20 FT WIND......W 10   W 15   W 17
20 FT WIND GUST.30     35     35
MIX HGT (FT)....2800   2800   2800
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 31  SW 31  SW 31
HAINES INDEX....3      2      2
VENT RATE.......Good   Good   Good

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers after midnight.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 40.
Max humidity........52 percent.
Wind (20 FT)........Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up to
                    35 mph.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......2800-3000 ft AGL decreasing to 500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 25 knots.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (12750 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      5 PM   7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM
SKY (%).........62     62     62     72     72     72
WEATHER COV.....NONE   NONE   NONE   S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0      0      20     20     20
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
TEMP............52     48     46     44     42     41
RH..............29     38     40     45     47     49
20 FT WIND......W 17   W 16   W 15   W 14   W 14   W 14
20 FT WIND GUST.35     35     35     30     30     30
MIX HGT (FT)....2800   2800   2000   1500   1000   500
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 33  SW 30  SW 25  SW 25  SW 25  SW 25
HAINES INDEX....2      2      2      2      2      2
VENT RATE.......Good   Good   Fair   Poor   Poor   Poor

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Chance of rain or snow
                    showers in the morning. Chance of rain showers
                    through the day.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 49.
Min humidity........39 percent.
Wind (20 FT)........Windy. Southwest winds 21 to 30 mph with gusts
                    to around 50 mph increasing to 25 to 35 mph
                    with gusts to around 60 mph in the afternoon.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......3200 ft AGL increasing to 8200 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 39 knots becoming west and
                    increasing to around 55 knots in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (128100 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (443000 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      5 AM      8 AM      11 AM     2 PM
SKY (%).........93        93        93        93
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSN      RNSN      RNSHWR    RNSHWR
TSTM COV........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).30        30        30        30
LAL.............1         1         1         1
TEMP............38        39        46        48
RH..............61        62        44        40
20 FT WIND......W 16G40   W 21G50   W 26G65   W 29G60
MIX HGT (FT)....3200      3200      8200      8200
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 39     SW 39     W 55      W 55
HAINES INDEX....2         2         2         3
VENT RATE.......Poor      Good      Excl      Excl

$$
Forecaster...GRZYWACZ
Requested by...Aldon Coriz
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1703010.0/EPZ
.EMAIL nmadc@fs.fed.us


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