Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4
000
FNUS74 KEWX 231032
FWSEWX

Spot Forecast for Decker Peninsula 120...Austin Fire Department
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
532 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 CDT on March 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Largest fire weather concern today will be the high south winds
at the burn site. Current winds are 10-14 mph this morning and
will get stronger through the late morning and early afternoon
hours. By noon, eye-level winds should be near 20 mph with gusts
as high as 25 mph. By 2pm through 6pm, eye-level wind gusts could
reach upwards of 30 mph at times. South winds will persist through
the late afternoon and evening near 15 to 20 mph.

Early morning clouds will dissipate out through the mid to late
morning with relative humidity minimums in the mid 30 percentiles
occurring this afternoon during peak heating. No rain is expected
today but some could move through early to mid morning Friday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    sunny (15-25 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds 8 to 17 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 8 to 17 mph. Gusts up to 35 mph.
Mixing height.......2100-3800 ft AGL increasing to 4200-5500 ft AGL
                    early in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 16 to 23 mph increasing to around 22 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........74  72  69  67  64  54  44  34  28  23  17  20
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............65  64  66  69  71  73  76  78  80  83  85  83
RH..............93  97  93  84  79  71  62  56  49  41  37  38
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..9   9   10  12  14  15  16  17  17  17  17  17
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  20  25  30  30  30  35  35  35  30
Eye lvl wnd dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Eye lvl wnd spd.5   5   6   7   8   9   10  10  10  10  10  10
Eye lvl wnd gst.15  15  15  20  25  30  30  30  35  35  35  30
Mix hgt (kft)...2.1 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.9 3.5 3.8 4.2 5.1 5.5 4.9
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.16  17  20  23  26  29  31  32  31  28  25  22
Haines index....4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after midnight.
CWR.................2 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 0100, then 1-8 strikes.
Min temperature.....Around 65.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds 14 to 15 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 14 to 15 mph with gusts to around
                    30 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms after midnight.
Mixing height.......2000-3600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 17 to 26 mph increasing to around 29 mph
                    after midnight.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........23  26  42  58  74  74  73  73  72  70  69  74
Weather cov.....                            SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                            SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2
Temp............81  80  76  72  69  67  67  67  66  66  65  65
RH..............41  42  50  59  70  78  81  84  90  90  93  93
20 FT wind dir..S   SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..16  15  14  13  13  14  14  15  15  14  13  12
20 FT wind gust.30  30  25  25  25  25  25  30  30  25  25  25
Eye lvl wnd dir.S   SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Eye lvl wnd spd.10  9   8   8   8   8   8   9   9   8   8   7
Eye lvl wnd gst.30  30  25  25  25  25  25  30  30  25  25  25
Mix hgt (kft)...3.6 2.9 2.7 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.0
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.20  17  18  20  22  24  26  29  29  29  29  29
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   3   3

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the morning,
                    then showers and thunderstorms likely in the
                    morning. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
CWR.................2 percent increasing to 48 percent in the
                    morning, then decreasing to 36 percent in the
                    afternoon.
LAL.................1-8 strikes until 0700, then 16-25 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southwest winds 9 to 14 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 9 to 14 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph
                    early in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1400-2300 ft AGL increasing to 5100-6800 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 21 to 28 mph decreasing to 13 to 18
                    mph early in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........78  83  87  91  95  91  88  84  67  51  34  26
Weather cov.....SCH LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............0   50  50  50  50  50  50  40  40  40  40  40
LAL.............2   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Temp............65  65  65  66  66  67  68  71  74  77  79  80
RH..............93  93  93  90  90  84  78  68  59  50  45  42
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..12  11  11  11  11  11  12  12  12  12  12  12
20 FT wind gust.25  15  15  15  15  15  20  20  20  20  20  20
Eye lvl wnd dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Eye lvl wnd spd.7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7
Eye lvl wnd gst.25  15  15  15  15  15  20  20  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 2.3 3.8 4.5 5.1 6.2 6.8 5.1
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.28  26  25  25  24  23  22  21  18  17  15  13
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   5   5

$$
Forecaster...00
Requested by...Mark Stinson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1704990.0/EWX
.EMAIL mark.stinson@austintexas.gov


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.