Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FNUS74 KEWX 171255
FWSEWX

Spot Forecast for Honey Creek 8...TPWD
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
655 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CST on February 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Southerly winds will increase to 5 to 10 MPH with gusts to 15 MPh
while relative humidities fall to around 44 percent late this
morning into afternoon. Southerly winds around 5 MPH will allow
relative humidities to recover to near 96 percent tonight.
Southwesterly winds of 5 to 10 MPH will lower relative humidities
to near 30 percent on Saturday. No wetting rains are expected
today and Saturday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    sunny (15-25 percent).
CWR.................1 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........44 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming south 5 to 8 mph early in
                    the morning.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 8 mph early in
                    the morning.
Mixing height.......100-1400 ft AGL increasing to 2800-3900 ft AGL
                    late in the morning, then increasing to
                    4000-5300 ft AGL early in the afternoon
                    decreasing to 1500 ft AGL late in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 6 to 14 mph increasing to south 17 to
                    24 mph in the late morning and early afternoon,
                    then decreasing to 12 to 14 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........56  50  45  41  36  32  24  17
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............58  62  66  69  71  73  73  72
RH..............81  72  63  57  51  46  44  46
20 FT wind dir..S   SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   7   8   8   8   7   6   6
20 FT wind gust.10  10  15  15  15  10  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.S   SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S
Eye lvl wnd spd.4   4   5   5   5   4   4   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.10  10  15  15  15  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 2.8 3.5 3.9 4.8 5.3 4.0 1.5
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.21  23  24  23  21  17  14  12
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 52.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming south around 5
                    mph late in the evening becoming light.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming south around 5
                    mph late in the evening becoming light.
Mixing height.......100-700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 18 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........9   11  13  15  23  31  39  40  42  43  42  42
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............69  64  61  58  57  55  54  53  54  54  53  53
RH..............51  60  70  77  80  90  93  96  93  93  96  93
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..5   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   4   4   4   4
20 FT wind gust.    5   5   5   5               5   5   5   5
Eye lvl wnd dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW
Eye lvl wnd spd.3   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   2   2   2   2
Eye lvl wnd gst.    5   5   5   5               5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW
Transp wind spd.9   9   12  13  15  17  18  18  17  16  15  14
Haines index....5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming south 5 to 7 mph early in
                    the morning.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 7 mph early in
                    the morning.
Mixing height.......600-2300 ft AGL increasing to 2900-4600 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon, then decreasing to 1300 ft
                    AGL late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 13 to 20 mph decreasing to 8 to 10 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........41  37  33  29  24  19  14  13  12  11  11  11
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............53  52  53  59  65  71  75  79  82  83  83  82
RH..............93  96  89  72  58  49  43  36  32  31  32  34
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..4   4   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   5
20 FT wind gust.5   5                   10  10  10  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S
Eye lvl wnd spd.2   2   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3
Eye lvl wnd gst.5   5                   10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.9 2.3 2.9 4.0 4.6 3.5 1.3
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   SE
Transp wind spd.14  15  16  17  18  20  20  18  16  13  10  8
Haines index....4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

$$
Forecaster...04
Requested by...Mike Lloyd
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702343.0/EWX
.EMAIL mike.lloyd@tpwd.texas.gov


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