Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FNUS72 KFFC 171255
FWSFFC

Spot Forecast for Redlands Dove fields...USFS
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
855 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on August 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Weather is expected to be very much like the past several days with a
mostly clear morning giving way to a partly cloudy afternoon.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across
the region but chances for direct impacts at the burn site are only
20-30 percent. Soundings show we have not been mixing as deep as
might be expected in August over the past few days, generally
3000-4000 feet at most during the mid to late afternoon. Combined
with fairly light winds the smoke dispersal should be fair to good,
but not great. Winds remain generally west through the daytime hours,
but will vary a bit between southwest to slightly northwesterly at
times.



.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers and thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon. A chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms late.
CWR.................10 percent...increasing to 30 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1200...then 1-8 strikes until
                    1500...then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 93.
Min humidity........54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds...becoming west around 5-8 mph late
                    in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......900 ft AGL...increasing to 3000-4000 ft AGL
                    by afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (14800-37700 knot-ft).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................11...increasing to 46.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.01 inches.

TIME (EDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........0      25     45     55     55
Weather cov.....              S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........              S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
CWR.............10     10     20     30     30
LAL.............1      1      2      3      3
Temp............79     87     90     93     91
RH..............85     72     60     54     56
20 ft wind......W 2    W 5    W 6    W 6    W 5
20 ft wind gust.5      9      10     11     9
Mix hgt (ft)....500    2000   3000   3500   4000
Transport wind..W 4    W 8    W 9    W 9    W 9
LVORI...........5      3      1      1      1
ADI.............11     40     36     49     42
Haines index....3      3      3      4      4
VRate kt-ft/100015     27     36     38     31

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent)...then becoming
                    partly cloudy (30-40 percent). A chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the
                    evening...then a slight chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms.
CWR.................30 percent...decreasing to 10 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes until 2000...then 1-8 strikes
                    until 2400...then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 75.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 5 mph early in the
                    evening...becoming light. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......4000 ft AGL...decreasing to 0 ft AGL early in
                    the evening.
Transport winds.....West 3 to 7 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (0-21200 knot-ft).
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................38...decreasing to 3.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.02 inches.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........56     50     48     44     37     30
Weather cov.....CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
CWR.............30     20     20     10     10     10
LAL.............3      2      2      1      1      1
Temp............88     82     80     79     77     75
RH..............58     69     79     86     87     95
20 ft wind......W 5    W 3    SW 2   SW 2   W 2    W 2
20 ft wind gust.8      5      4      3      3      3
Mix hgt (ft)....4000   BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100
Transport wind..W 7    SW 4   SW 4   SW 3   W 3    W 3
LVORI...........1      3      4      5      6      6
ADI.............38     2      2      2      2      1
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
VRate kt-ft/100021     0      0      0      0      0

$$
Forecaster...Sena
Requested by...Tim Kolnik
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1714504.0/FFC



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