Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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061
FNUS75 KGJT 162321
FWSGJT

Spot Forecast for Cattle Creek...USFS
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
521 PM MDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 MDT on October 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Warming conditions over the next few days along with
a slight increase in winds aloft should bring fair to low end good
smoke dispersal during the peak heating hours. Terrain driven winds
from sunset to mid morning should eventually turn upslope and
combine with ridgetop winds from the southwest at 7 to 12 mph the
next few afternoons. Humidity remains very low in the single digits
to low teens at peak heating with recovery struggling to reach the
mid 30 percent range.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10%).
Max temperature.....62 to 65 F.
Min humidity........7-12%.
Wind (20 ft)........Downvalley 3 to 7 mph through 1000...then light
                    and variable...becoming southwest to West winds
                    around 10 MPH by 1200.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (7000 knot-ft), increasing to fair to low
                    end good from 1300 to 1800.
Haines Index........5 moderate.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL, increasing to 5900 ft AGL during peak
                    heating.
Transport winds.....West 13 MPH.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10%).
Min temperature.....27-32 F.
Max humidity........37-42%.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 MPH becoming downvalley at
                    4 to 7 mph by sunset.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair, decreasing to poor (15000-16000 knot-ft)
                    by late evening.
Haines Index........5 moderate.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......3900 ft AGL, decreasing to 1400 ft AGL after
                    midnight.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 MPH through sunset then downvalley
                    8 mph.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10%).
Max temperature.....60 to 65 F.
Min humidity........10-15%.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 12 MPH.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (12000-44000 knot-ft)...becoming
                    fair to low end good from 1300 to 1800.
Haines Index........4 low.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL, increasing to 5500 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 12 MPH.

$$
Forecaster...Dennis Phillips
Requested by...Rita Clipperton
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1717320.0/GJT
.EMAIL riflehelitack@gmail.com



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