Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FNUS75 KGJT 181836
FWSGJT

Spot Forecast for Gunnison SWA piles...DFPC
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1236 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 MDT on March 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...With a cutoff low to the southwest and high pressure to
the north, transport winds will be very weak today and tomorrow,
leading to generally poor smoke dispersal over the burn site. The cutoff
low finally moves east on Wednesday, leading to increased flow aloft,
stronger transport winds, and deeper mixing. All of which combined to
create Fair to Good smoke dispersal. Clear skies, warming temperatures,
and gusty afternoon winds will last through the rest of the week,
bringing Fair to Good smoke dispersal Thursday and Friday afternoon.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....45-50.
Min humidity........36-41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Downslope/downvalley winds 3-5 mph until 1100,
then upslope/upvalley winds 4-8 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1000-14000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 or very low.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL increasing to 3400 ft AGL by
1500.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 mph.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....20-25.
Max humidity........88-93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Upslope/upvalley winds 3-5 mph becoming downslope/
downvalley winds after 2000.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2000-9000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 or very low.
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL decreasing to 550 ft AGL by 2100.
Transport winds.....North 5 mph.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....47-52.
Min humidity........38-43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Downslope/downvalley winds 3-5 mph becoming upslope/
upvalley winds 4-8 mph by 1200. Becoming westerly
12-16 mph after 1500. Gusts up to 25 mph possible in
the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (12000 knot-ft) increasing to fair by 1400,
and to good by 1500.
Haines Index........4 or low.
Mixing height.......550 ft AGL increasing to 6700 ft AGL by 1500.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 mph.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 20s. Highs in the lower 50s. West
winds 18-22 mph in the afternoon.
.FRIDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the lower 50s. West
winds 10-14 mph in the afternoon.
.SATURDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the lower 50s.
Southwest winds 14-18 mph in the afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...Brianna Bealo
Requested by...BC 41 Joe Duensing
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2407337.0/GJT
.DELDT 03/18/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL joe.duensing@state.co.us


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