825
FNUS73 KGRR 061939
FWSGRR

Spot Forecast for Gourdneck Angling Fen...MIDNR
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
339 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on May 07.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (616) 949-5150, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Two rounds of showers/storms are possible Tuesday. The
firt will move across the area during the morning with another potentially
stronger round of storms during the mid afternoon.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Showers likely
                    through early afternoon, then showers and
                    chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Temperature.........65 at ignition...Max 73.
RH..................60 percent at ignition...Min 59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southeast at 17 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Southeast winds 14 to 18
                    mph shifting to the south in the evening. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 2100 ft
                    AGL.
Mixing winds........Southeast 15 to 24 mph shifting to the south
                    around 13 mph in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....380 /good/ at ignition. Max...480 /good/.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 3.

TIME (EDT)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   7 PM   9 PM
Sky (%).........65     90     84     62     60     41
Weather cov.....CHANCE LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE LIKELY CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........              CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Temp............65     68     68     70     71     65
RH..............60     68     76     76     73     87
20 ft wind......SE 17  SE 17  SE 18  SE 16  S 13   S 9
20 ft wind gust.25     26     28     24     20     13
Mix hgt (ft)....1700   2100   1800   1700   1000   400
Mixing wind.....SE 23  SE 23  S 21   S 18   S 13   SW 9
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      4
Smoke disprsl...380    480    380    310    130    40

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
Temperature.........Min 53.
RH..................Max 93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 9 to 13 mph shifting to the
                    west 8 to 10 mph after midnight. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the evening.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southwest 9 to 13 mph shifting to the west 10
                    to 13 mph after midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....40 (poor).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Temperature.........Max 75.
RH..................Min 43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 9 to 14 mph shifting to the north
                    around 8 mph in the evening.
Mixing height.......4800 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........West 9 to 17 mph shifting to the north around 8
                    mph in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....60 (poor) early in the morning increasing to
                    670 (excellent) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Felver
Requested by...Nate Stearns
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413281.0/GRR
.DELDT 05/06/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL stearnsn@michigan.gov