Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FNUS74 KLZK 210124
FWSLZK

Spot Forecast for 515 Regens P/CS...USFS
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
724 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 2000 CST on November 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service Immediately.

.DISCUSSION...
High Pressure will continue to exit to the east with generally
clear skies and light winds expected tonight. A cold front will
move across the burn area around noon on Tuesday. No precipitation
is expected but winds will shift to the NW behind the front.

.TONIGHT...

Temperature.........48 at ignition...Min 38.
RH..................54 percent at ignition...Max 92 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Transport winds.....South 9 to 13 mph.
Stability class.....D.
20 Foot Winds.......Winds south at 5 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    South winds around 5 mph.
LVORI...............1.
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Dispersion..........7 early in the evening.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.
Eye level winds.....South winds around 5 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 1300 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 2250 ft MSL.

TIME (CST)      8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............48  46  45  44  43  42  41  40  40  39
RH..............54  58  60  60  65  67  70  76  76  79
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.
Eye lvl wnd dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Eye lvl wnd spd.3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Eye lvl wnd gst.
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.13  13  13  13  13  12  10  9   9   10
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.TUESDAY...

Temperature.........Max 62.
RH..................Min 50 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Transport winds.....Northwest 6 to 12 mph.
Stability class.....C.
20 Foot Winds.......Light winds.
LVORI...............1 early in the morning.
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
Dispersion..........11 increasing to 19 late in the morning.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Eye level winds.....Light winds.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 3600 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 4635 ft MSL.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............38  38  39  44  49  53  57  60  61  62  61  58
RH..............85  85  92  86  77  71  62  60  56  50  51  57
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Eye lvl wnd dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Eye lvl wnd spd.2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Eye lvl wnd gst.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Transp wind dir.S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   NW  N
Transp wind spd.10  10  9   9   10  12  12  9   7   6   7   8
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

$$
Forecaster...J Goudsward
Requested by...R.L. Self
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1719017.1/LZK
.EMAIL rlself@fs.fed.us



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