Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FNUS74 KMAF 231506
FWSMAF

Spot Forecast for Cherry...NM-ROD
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1006 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 0900 MDT on June 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Despite hot temperatures, increased moisture today will maintain RHs
above critical levels, generally 25% and greater at the burn site.
NW/N winds will shift to the NE and could become gusty this afternoon
with the passage of a cold front, with 20ft winds potentially exceeding
20mph for a brief period late this afternoon/early this evening.
Thunderstorms are also possible this afternoon/evening, and could be
accompanied by lightning and gusty winds. Recovery will be very good
tonight, and given increased moisture and much cooler temperatures
Saturday, min RHs will remain around 40% and greater. Light 20ft
winds will veer to the east on Saturday, and then to the southeast
Saturday night. Rain chances will continue through the weekend.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1300, then 1-8 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 100.
Min humidity........26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 14 to 19 mph. Gusts up to 25
                    mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2500-3500 ft AGL increasing to 4500-6300 ft AGL
                    late in the morning, then increasing to
                    6300-7100 ft AGL early in the afternoon
                    decreasing to 5000 ft AGL late in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 27 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 6 very low to high.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.

TIME (MDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky cover.......MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY
Weather cov.....              ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Weather type....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........              ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     10     10     10
LAL.............1      1      2      2      2
Temp............81     86     93     99     90
RH..............40     32     28     26     31
20 FT wind dir..N      NE     E      E      NE
20 FT wind spd..12     14     17     19     20
20 FT wind gust.26     18     20     20     25
Mix hgt (ft)....2500   4500   6300   7100   5000
Transp wind dir.N      N      N      NE     NE
Transp wind spd.25     26     28     30     25
Haines index....6      6      6      3      3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
LAL.................9-15 strikes.
Min temperature.....Around 63.
Max humidity........72 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 8 to 13 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2300-3800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East around 15 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 4 very low to low.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky cover.......PCLDY     PCLDY     PCLDY     MCLDY
Weather cov.....CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).30        30        30        30
LAL.............3         3         3         3
Temp............87        73        68        64
RH..............34        53        63        70
20 FT wind dir..NE        NE        NE        NE
20 FT wind spd..19        19        12        12
20 FT wind gust.25        25        15        15
Mix hgt (ft)....3800      3000      2900      2900
Transp wind dir.NE        NE        E         E
Transp wind spd.22        16        17        16
Haines index....4         4         2         2

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
LAL.................1-8 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 8 to 13 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2000-3900 ft AGL increasing to 4100-4600 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South around 13 mph.
Haines Index........3 very low.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY     MCLDY     MCLDY     PCLDY
Weather cov.....S CHC     S CHC     S CHC     S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC     S CHC     S CHC     S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).20        20        20        20
LAL.............2         2         2         2
Temp............63        63        67        71
RH..............72        75        65        59
20 FT wind dir..NE        NE        E         E
20 FT wind spd..11        12        10        11
20 FT wind gust.
Mix hgt (ft)....2100      2300      3900      4200
Transp wind dir.E         E         SE        S
Transp wind spd.12        8         8         9
Haines index....3         3         3         3

$$
Forecaster...Phillipson
Requested by...John Selby
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1711487.0/MAF



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