Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FNUS72 KMHX 291050
FWSMHX

Spot Forecast for David Nelson...USFS
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
650 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EDT on June 29.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure offshore is expected to hold steady through early
next week with an inland trough producing a warm and moist
southerly flow across the region.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds, becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph
                    with gusts 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......Max 6800 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 12 mph.
Vent Rate...........Max 72795 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 6.
ADI.................Max 51.
Haines index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.15 to 30.22 inHg.

TIME (EDT)         7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)............15  17  19  23  25  27  31  34  33  31  30
Weather cov........
Weather type.......
Tstm cov...........
Temp...............67  70  74  78  80  82  82  83  85  84  84
RH.................81  78  69  60  50  48  46  48  50  51  53
20 FT wind dir.....E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd.....2   3   4   6   7   8   8   8   9   10  10
20 FT wind gust....    5   5       10  15  15  15  15  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)......2.2 3.1 4.1 5.0 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.6 6.8
Transp wind dir....SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S
Transp wind spd....5   3   5   6   7   8   9   10  12  12  12
LVORI..............5   4   3   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI................11  13  15  22  31  37  42  47  51  39  40
Haines index.......4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3
VRate mph-ft/1000..6   9   17  23  30  32  35  40  50  62  73
Stability class....F   F   F   F   F   B   B   B   B   B   B

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy.
Min temperature.....Around 69.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 9 mph until early morning,
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......Min 300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 13 mph.
Vent Rate...........Min 2645 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 5.
ADI.................Min 5.
Haines index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.11 to 30.17 inHg.

TIME (EDT)         6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)............30  30  30  30  30  30  33  38  41  41  43  44
Weather cov........
Weather type.......
Tstm cov...........
Temp...............83  81  79  76  74  74  73  72  72  71  70  69
RH.................55  60  64  74  79  79  81  84  84  87  90  93
20 FT wind dir.....SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd.....9   8   7   6   5   4   4   4   4   4   3   3
20 FT wind gust....15  10  10          5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)......6.0 5.2 4.4 3.0 1.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir....S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd....12  12  12  12  13  13  12  12  10  10  10  10
LVORI..............1   3   3   3   4   4   4   5   4   4   5   5
ADI................51  8   8   5   6   6   5   5   7   7   5   5
Haines index.......3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRate mph-ft/1000..69  61  52  35  19  3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Stability class....B   B   B   B   B   A   F   F   F   F   F   F

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers early
                    in the morning. A slight chance of
                    thunderstorms late in the morning, then a
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms early in
                    the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........63 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds, becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    morning.
Mixing height.......Max 5700 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 9 to 15 mph.
Vent Rate...........Max 62559 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 6.
ADI.................Max 56.
Haines index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.10 to 30.15 inHg.

TIME (EDT)         6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%)............47     54     54     63     70     71
Weather cov........       S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type.......NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov...........                     S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
Temp...............69     72     78     82     84     84
RH.................93     87     74     65     63     63
20 ft wind.........S 3    SE 4   SE 6   SE 7   SE 8   S 8
20 ft wind gust....5      5             10     15     15
Mix hgt (ft).......400    800    3100   4800   5700   5100
Transport wind.....S 10   S 9    SE 9   SE 12  S 15   S 14
LVORI..............6      5      3      1      1      1
ADI................4      7      28     45     49     42
Haines index.......4      3      3      3      3      3
VRate mph-ft/1000..6      8      16     34     62     60
Stability class....F      F      E      B      B      B

$$
Forecaster...Kearns
Requested by...David Nelson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1711840.0/MHX
.EMAIL Davidnelson@fs.fed.us



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