Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FNUS72 KMLB 281320
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for HU4...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
920 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on July 28.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure ridge axis south of the area will produce a relatively
light southwest wind flow across the burn site. Isolated to scattered
storms will develop ahead of the west coast sea breeze and may impact
this site, mainly from mid to late afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
will be possible with storms or from outflow generated by nearby storms.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1400, then 1-8 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 95.
Min humidity........47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......300-2100 ft AGL increasing to 3000-4900 ft AGL
                    late in the morning.
Transport winds.....West 2 to 10 mph increasing to around 12 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....3 increasing to 54.
LVORI...............7 decreasing to 1.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........40  47  47  47  54  54  54  59
Weather cov.....        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
LAL.............1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2
Temp............85  88  90  91  93  94  92  91
RH..............75  66  60  56  49  47  49  50
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..5   6   7   8   8   8   7   6
20 FT wind gust.            10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...2.1 3.0 3.6 4.3 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.7
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.5   6   7   8   9   9   10  12
Dispersion idx..12  22  31  40  50  52  55  58
LVORI...........4   3   1   1   1   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes until 2000, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 76.
Max humidity........94 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 6 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......1800-3200 ft AGL decreasing to 300 ft AGL early
                    in the evening.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 13 mph.
Dispersion index....41 decreasing to 5.
LVORI...............2 increasing to 6.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........59     46     46     46     34     34
Weather cov.....S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).20     10     10     10     10     10
LAL.............2      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............89     85     82     81     79     78
RH..............56     65     74     77     85     88
20 ft wind......W 6    W 6    SW 6   SW 6   SW 5   SW 5
20 ft wind gust.
Mix hgt (ft)....3200   300    300    300    300    300
Transport wind..W 12   W 13   W 8    SW 5   SW 5   SW 9
Dispersion idx..41     8      5      3      2      4
LVORI...........1      3      3      4      5      5

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1400, then 1-8 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 93.
Min humidity........58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 13 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......300-2200 ft AGL increasing to 3100-4400 ft AGL
                    late in the morning.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 15 mph shifting to the west 17
                    to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....5 increasing to 70.
LVORI...............6 decreasing to 1.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........34        36        36        53
Weather cov.....                              S CHC
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                              S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10        20        20        20
LAL.............1         1         1         2
Temp............77        82        88        90
RH..............94        79        66        58
20 FT wind......SW 5      SW 7      SW 12     W 14G15
Mix hgt (ft)....300       1200      3500      4300
Transport wind..SW 10     SW 10     SW 17     W 20
Dispersion idx..5         19        60        73
LVORI...........6         3         1         1

$$
Forecaster...Johnson
Requested by...Adam Peterson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1713546.0/MLB
.EMAIL apeterson@tnc.org


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