Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FNUS73 KPAH 241359
FWSPAH

Spot Forecast for Smith RX and Potential Wildfire Planning...USFWS
National Weather Service Paducah KY
759 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CST on February 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon
as a cold front moves through. A strong low level inversion will
lift and eventually erode with frontal passage this afternoon.
By afternoon, a 4kft mixing layer and strong winds should allow for
good smoke dispersion. An inversion around 5kft will set up tonight
into Saturday, but mixing beneath the inversion should remain good
with gusty winds.

Fire potential will be elevated Saturday afternoon with breezy
conditions, fairly dry fuels, and low relative humidity.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent).
                    Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........67 at ignition...Max 72.
RH..................62 percent at ignition...Min 53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds south at 13 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL at ignition...increasing to
                    3000-4200 ft AGL late in the morning and
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 21 to 28 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CST)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  CLOUDY MCLDY
Weather cov.....       CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........       CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
CWR.............0      0      0      0
Temp............67     71     72     69
RH..............62     57     58     55
20 FT wind dir..S      SW     SW     SW
20 FT wind spd..13     12     12     10
20 FT wind gust.15     15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....2200   3700   4200   4100
Transp wind dir.SW     SW     SW     SW
Transp wind spd.26     28     25     22
Haines index....3      3      3      3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the evening.
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........Min 33.
RH..................Max 71 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......West winds 9 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......3200-4400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 20 to 28 mph shifting to the northwest
                    around 30 mph after midnight.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............64     56     50     45     40     36
RH..............54     59     61     60     64     69
20 FT wind dir..W      W      W      W      W      W
20 FT wind spd..9      9      10     10     10     10
20 FT wind gust.10     10     15     15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....3600   3200   3500   4300   4400   4100
Transp wind dir.W      W      W      W      W      W
Transp wind spd.20     21     24     30     31     31
Haines index....4      5      4      2      2      2

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    sunny (15-25 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........Max 43.
RH..................Min 33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northwest winds 8 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......3800-5000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 21 to 30 mph decreasing to 14 to 20
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  PCLDY  MCLEAR MCLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............34     33     35     39     43     43
RH..............67     63     53     42     36     35
20 FT wind dir..W      NW     NW     NW     NW     NW
20 FT wind spd..12     12     10     9      10     9
20 FT wind gust.15     15     15     15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....3800   4200   4600   5000   5000   4800
Transp wind dir.NW     NW     NW     NW     NW     NW
Transp wind spd.30     29     25     22     21     17
Haines index....2      2      2      3      3      3

$$
Forecaster...WFO PADUCAH
Requested by...David Jones
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702802.0/PAH
.EMAIL David_jones@fws.gov



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