Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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338
FNUS75 KRIW 300127
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR SHOVEL...BIA WRA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
727 PM MDT MON AUG 29 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1848 MDT ON AUGUST 29.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM...THEN DRY. ON
TUESDAY...EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY LIGHT TERRAIN
DRIVEN WINDS OR LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL INCREASE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE FIRE SITE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDY TO VERY WINDY WESTERLY WIND SATURDAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MURRELL

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    THROUGH 10 PM...THEN MOSTLY CLEAR (20 PERCENT)
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
MAX HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST 4-8 MPH...BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY
                    4-7 MPH BY AROUND 9 PM.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND
                    10 MPH BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.NEAR ZERO.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND
                    10 MPH BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (14200 KNOT-FT).

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
MIN HUMIDITY........25 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-8 MPH BY 9 AM...BECOMING
                    SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH BY AROUND 2 PM. GUSTS 10-15 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....LIGHT AND VARIABLE 3-6 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST
                    AROUND 10 MPH BY AROUND NOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL NOON...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 8500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE MORNING...BECOMING
                    SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH BY NOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (67900 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.THURSDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH. GUSTS
TO 25 MPH.

.FRIDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 MPH. GUSTS 40-50 MPH.

.SATURDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN
THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WEST TO SOUTHWEST 15-25 MPH.
GUSTS 40-50 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...MURRELL
REQUESTED BY...GEORGE WELLS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20160829.SHOVE.01/RIW



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