Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FNUS75 KRIW 181026
FWSRIW

Spot Forecast for Medince Lodge RX...BLM
National Weather Service Riverton WY
426 AM MDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 MDT on April 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...The weather pattern today will consist of a moist
southwest flow aloft with a couple of disturbances, while a weak
pressure gradient will bring light wind at the surface. The first
disturbance over the northern Great Basin early this morning will
move northeast across the area in the mid-afternoon. Cloudy skies
and isolated showers will precede the system through around 3 pm
with some decrease in cloud cover behind the system in the late
afternoon. A second system on its heels will spread another round
of showers across the area this evening into Wednesday morning,
though the heavier more widespread precipitation is expected to
remain just south of the area. Decreasing showers and partial
clearing is expected behind this second system Wednesday
afternoon.


...Thunderstorms imply strong gusty and erratic winds...
...Haines index is high level haines both day and night...

FORECASTER...AR/AEM

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Scattered showers in the late morning
                    and early afternoon.  Decreasing showers
                    and partial clearing after 1500.
Max temperature.....Around 50.
Min humidity........39-42 percent.

20-foot winds.......Upslope/upvalley at 5 to 9 mph.

Ridge top winds.....South to southwest at 8 to 12 mph.

LAL.................No Tstms.
Chc of wetting rain.8 percent.
Haines Index........3 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......Increasing to 4000 to 5000 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.

Transport winds.....South to southwest around 10 mph in the
                    afternoon.

Smoke dispersal.....Poor in the morning. Poor to fair in the
                    afternoon.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. A chance of showers. A chance of
                    rain and snow showers after midnight.
Min temperature.....32-35.
Max humidity........86-90 percent.

20-foot winds.......West to northwest at 4 to 8 mph. Wind becoming
                    Downslope/downvalley at 4 to 7 mph after
                    midnight.

Ridge top winds.....West to northwest at 5 to 10 mph. Wind
                    becoming northeast at 5 to 10 mph after
                    midnight.

LAL.................No Tstms.
Chc of wetting rain.15 percent.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......Decreasing to 500 feet AGL after midnight.

Transport winds.....Northwest at 5 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair...becoming poor after sunset.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy with scattered rain and snow showers in the morning.
                    Mostly cloudy in the afternoon with isolated rain showers.
Max temperature.....42-45.
Min humidity........48-52 percent.

20-foot winds.......Upslope/upvalley at 4 to 8 mph in the
                    morning. West to southwest at 5 to 9 mph in
                    the afternoon.

Ridge top winds.....West at 6 to 10 mph.

LAL.................No Tstms.
Chc of wetting rain.19 percent.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......Increasing to 5000 to 6000 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....West at 5 to 10 mph in the morning.
                    West at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor...becoming fair around 1200.
                    Becoming good after 1500.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain or snow showers
Lows in the upper 20s. Winds downslope or downvalley at
4 to 7 mph.

.THURSDAY...
Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain showers in the afternoon
and a chance of rain or snow showers at night. Highs in the
mid to upper 40s.  Winds generally less than 10 mph.

.FRIDAY...
Cloudy. A chance of rain or snow showers. Lows in the lower
30s. Highs in the lower 40s. Winds generally less than 10 mph.

.SATURDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows around 30. Highs in the mid 40s.
Winds generally less than 10 mph.

$$
Forecaster...Ross
Requested by...Sage Decker
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707084.0/RIW
.EMAIL jsdecker@blm.gov


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