Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FNUS71 KRLX 161358
FWSRLX

Spot Forecast for Backus RX...NPS
National Weather Service Charleston WV
958 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 EDT on April 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front approaches from the northwest and should bring
showers and thunderstorms today. Storm activity intensifies and
becomes more numerous during the afternoon hours. The cold front
stalls across extreme southern West Virginia.

The front will remain stalled near the burn site Monday and bring
potential shower - mainly in the morning though perhaps into the
afternoon as well. For now, Tuesday and Wednesday look dry, but
clouds will be in the area. Unsettled weather will be possible
for much of week as the stationary front remains in our vicinity.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers and thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon...then a chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms late.
CWR.................20 percent...increasing to 40 percent.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes until 1500...then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......4300-5900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 17 to 22 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........59  63  63  63  63
Weather cov.....SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............20  20  30  40  40
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  30  40  40
LAL.............2   2   3   3   3
Temp............66  68  70  71  71
RH..............52  50  48  48  50
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..10  10  9   8   7
20 FT wind gust.25  25  25  25  25
Mix hgt (kft)...4.6 4.3 4.8 5.4 5.9
Transp wind dir.W   SW  SW  W   W
Transp wind spd.20  17  18  20  22
Haines index....3   3   3   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). A chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening...then
                    showers likely after midnight.
CWR.................40 percent...increasing to 60 percent.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes until 2000...then 1-8 strikes
                    until 2200...then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 55.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the evening.
Mixing height.......4900-6000 ft AGL...decreasing to 2000-3400 ft
                    AGL after midnight.
Transport winds.....West 23 to 31 mph...decreasing to 5 to 14 mph
                    after midnight.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........63  63  63  64  67  69  72  75  76  77  79  81
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC SCH SCH
CWR.............40  40  40  40  40  40  40  60  60  60  60  60
Chc of pcpn (%).40  40  40  40  40  40  40  60  60  60  60  60
LAL.............3   3   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............69  67  65  63  61  60  58  58  57  56  56  56
RH..............59  64  70  73  74  75  79  81  84  86  88  89
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   7   7   7   7   6   6   6   5   5
20 FT wind gust.20  20  15  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...5.8 5.4 5.2 5.6 6.0 6.0 4.9 3.4 2.2 2.0 2.3 2.5
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.23  24  25  29  31  30  23  14  7   5   5   6
Haines index....4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). A chance of
                    showers early in the morning...then showers
                    likely in the late morning and early afternoon.
                    A chance of showers early in the afternoon.
CWR.................50 percent...increasing to 60 percent in the
                    late morning and early afternoon...then
                    decreasing to 50 percent in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 5 mph.
Mixing height.......1400-3300 ft AGL...increasing to 3200-3400 ft
                    AGL late.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 6 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........83  85  86  88  92  94  91  85  82  79  74  71
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............50  50  50  60  60  60  60  60  50  50  50  50
Chc of pcpn (%).50  50  50  60  60  60  60  60  50  50  50  50
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............56  56  55  57  59  61  63  64  65  65  66  66
RH..............90  90  91  86  80  75  67  65  60  58  56  54
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.
Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.2
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

$$
Forecaster...JW
Requested by...John Fry
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1706912.0/RLX



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