Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FNUS71 KRLX 151719
FWSRLX

Spot Forecast for Lake Vesuvius Prescribed Burn...Wayne Nat'l Forest
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1219 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 EST on November 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
An approaching cold front will produce rain showers late this afternoon
into early this evening. Expect 0.10 to 0.30 inches of rain. Southerly
flow will allow moisture and relatively warmer air through this evening.
The actual cold front crosses the Ohio River shortly after midnight,
followed by gusty northwest winds and possibly a couple of hours of
drizzle.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). A slight chance of
                    showers early in the afternoon. A chance of
                    showers late, then showers likely late.
CWR.................10 percent, increasing to 70 percent.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 56.
Min humidity........53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 7 mph. Gusts up to 18 mph
                    early in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1300-1600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 10 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........81  85  94  98  98
Weather cov.....    SCH CHC LKY LKY
Weather type....    RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10  20  50  70  70
Chc of pcpn (%).10  20  50  70  70
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1
Temp............51  54  55  54  53
RH..............50  53  54  56  60
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   6   6
20 FT wind gust.14  13  13  11  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.4
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   SW
Transp wind spd.10  10  10  10  9
Haines index....4   4   4   4   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Showers likely
                    in the evening. A chance of drizzle.
CWR.................70 percent, decreasing to 10 percent.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 42.
Max humidity........99 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......0-1200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 12 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 3 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........98  98  97  94  92  89  86  85  82  77  71  65
Weather cov.....LKY CHC CHC SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  DZL DZL DZL DZL
Tstm cov........
CWR.............70  50  30  20  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Chc of pcpn (%).70  50  30  20  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............50  49  48  47  46  45  45  44  44  43  43  43
RH..............71  76  81  87  93  95  97  99  98  94  92  89
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   7   8   8   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  11  12  12  12  12
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.2
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.8   8   9   9   10  10  9   9   8   8   8   12
Haines index....3   2   2   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   3   3

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 47.
Min humidity........56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 7 mph, becoming light.
Mixing height.......2300-3200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 9 to 17 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........60  49  50  51  51  49  45  44  42  39  38  39
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  10  0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............43  42  42  41  43  45  46  46  47  47  46  44
RH..............84  86  82  82  73  65  63  60  58  56  58  62
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..7   5   5   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   3
20 FT wind gust.12  12  12  12  13  13  13  12  12  10  10  4
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 3.1 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.15  17  17  16  14  13  10  9   9   9   9   9
Haines index....3   3   3   3   2   3   3   4   4   4   4   4

$$
Forecaster...RPY
Requested by...Mike Ortner
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1718666.1/RLX



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