Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FNUS71 KRNK 221418
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR MILLER RX...NORTH CAROLINA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
918 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1230 EST ON JANUARY 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
BASED ON MORNING SOUNDINGS...HAVE UPPED MIXING HEIGHTS A BIT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT HEIGHTS AT IGNITION TO BE AROUND 2200 FEET WITH AN
INCREASE TO 2600 FEET BY 400 PM. HEIGHTS WILL COME DOWN RAPIDLY AFTER
SUNSET AS SURFACE COOLING ESTABLISHES INVERSION. HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP
TRANSPORT WINDS JUST A BIT FOR TODAY AND THE WILL BE EFFECTIVE ONCE THE
INVERSION ERODES BY IGNITION TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
AREA...WHILE UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS BY TO THE NORTH. MAINLY A DRY
FORECAST INTO T0NIGHT. AS WE HEAD TO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF COAST WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA AND STRENGTHEN...BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY
RAIN TO THE PIEDMONTS...AND A WINTRY MIX TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
MOSTLY SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ALLEGHANYS.

WINDS WILL STRONG BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY
WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. MORE SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 43.
MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH.
CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND 5
                    MPH LATE.

TIME (EST)          NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............72     50     34
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................39     41     42
RH..................47     45     45
20 FT WIND..........W 6    W 6    W 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....15     15     10
MIX HGT (FT)........2200   2400   2600
TRANSPORT WIND......NW 14  NW 8   NW 7
CWR.................0      0      0

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 28.
MAX HUMIDITY........83 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 3 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTH 0 TO 1
                    MPH LATE.

TIME (EST)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............41     60     75     75     76     81
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................39     36     35     34     33     32
RH..................53     61     66     69     74     79
20 FT WIND..........NW 3   NW 2   N 1    NW 0   NW 0   N 0
20 FT WIND GUST.....5      5
MIX HGT (FT)........1000   500    1100   800    600    400
TRANSPORT WIND......NW 3   NW 6   N 14   N 10   N 5    N 0
CWR.................0      0      0      0      10     10

.FRIDAY...

MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 2 TO 10 MPH...DECREASING TO 1 TO 5
                    MPH LATE.

TIME (EST)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
MIX HGT (FT)........400    600    1000   1000   900    900
TRANSPORT WIND......E 2    E 7    S 10   S 12   S 7    SE 1

$$
FORECASTER...SPORER
REQUESTED BY...BRENT TRIPLETT
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150122.MILLE.01/RNK



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