Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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400
FNUS74 KSHV 180720
FWSSHV

Spot Forecast for OKRD_S Buffalo 1856...USFS
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
120 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 CST on January 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (318) 631-3669 ext. 241, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

20-foot winds have veered to the south this morning, with speeds
of less than 5 mph. Wind speeds may pick up just a bit this
afternoon to around 5-6 mph due to a bit of daytime mixing
underneath clear skies. Temperatures will manage to finally warm
to above freezing this afternoon /lower 40s/, thus resulting in
relative humidity values dropping into the 25-30 percent range by
peak heating. Tonight, sub-freezing temperatures will return
/though warmer than previous nights/ with humidities recovering in
the 80-85 percent range.

Tomorrow, the warm-up continues with daytime temperatures in the
upper 40s to lower 50s expected. Southerly winds will increase
into the 8-10 mph range tomorrow afternoon /with mixing heights of
around 2400 AGL) in response to a deepening surface trough across
the lee of the Rockies. Low-level moisture will also respond in
kind as the gradual transport of Gulf moisture commence to impinge
on southeastern OK. Should therefore see peak heating humidities
more so in the 50-60 percent range.

Looking ahead, computer models are in agreement in showing
increasing rainfall chances this weekend, with widespread
beneficial rainfall expected by Sunday, courtesy of an approaching
upper level disturbance. At this time, this disturbance looks to
provide adequate upper level forcing, which translates to the
potential for strong to possibly severe storms particularly on
Sunday.




.TODAY...
TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........0   0   0   2   2   2   3   3   3   8   8   8
Weather cov.....
Weather type....   NONE  NONE  NONE  NONE  NONE  NONE  NONE  NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............10  14  19  23  27  32  36  38  40  42  39  37
RH..............91  80  70  62  50  39  32  30  28  26  30  34
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   3   4   5   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.            4   5   6       7   7   7   7
Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.3   3   3   3   3   3   12  12  12  12  12  12
Trans wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Trans spd (m/s).1   1   1   1   1   1   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...
TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........8   8   8   10  10  10  7   7   7   10  10  10
Weather cov.....
Weather type....  NONE  NONE  NONE  NONE  NONE  NONE  NONE  NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Temp............34  33  32  31  30  29  28  27  27  26  25  24
RH..............39  45  51  58  60  66  68  71  71  74  78  77
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3
20 FT wind gust.6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 1.6 1.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5
Trans wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Trans spd (m/s).3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2

.FRIDAY...
TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........15  15  15  10  10  10  20  20  20  30  30  30
Weather cov.....
Weather type....  NONE  NONE  NONE  NONE  NONE  NONE  NONE  NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............23  26  30  33  37  40  44  46  49  51  48  46
RH..............81  73  70  63  60  56  53  53  52  52  60  66
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..3   3   4   5   6   6   7   8   9   9   9   8
20 FT wind gust.4   4   5   6       7   8   10  13  13  13  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.4
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.5   5   5   5   5   5   16  16  16  16  16  16
Trans wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Trans spd (m/s).2   2   2   2   2   2   7   7   7   7   7   7

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...
Mostly cloudy with slight chance of showers. Lows in the upper
30s. Highs in the upper 50s. South winds around 8 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Mostly cloudy with showers likely and isolated thunderstorms.
Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the lower 60s. South winds around
9 mph.
.MONDAY...
Partly cloudy. Showers likely and isolated thunderstorms. Lows in
the upper 30s. Highs in the mid 50s. West winds around 9 mph.

$$
Forecaster...BOWSER
Requested by...Kris Wilson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1800461.1/SHV
.EMAIL kriswilson@fs.fed.us



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