Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FNUS74 KTSA 240615
FWSTSA

Spot Forecast for OKRD_Blackjack East...USFS
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1215 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CST on February 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact NWS Tulsa at (918)832-7838, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Winds will shift to the northwest today behind an early morning
cold frontal passage. Sustained speeds from 10 to 15 mph with
gusts near 25 mph will be likely beginning late morning and
continuing through the afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler than
the last several days, but decreasing dew points through the day
will still lead to low relative humidities near 30 percent during
the afternoon.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 59.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Dewpoint............40 decreasing to 30.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 8 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......600-2400 ft AGL increasing to 6200-6600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 7 to 16 mph increasing to 18 to 26
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (12000-20000 knot-ft).
Stability class.....4.
1700FT Avg MIX T(F).62 decreasing to 56 in the late morning and
                    afternoon.

TIME (CST)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........28  26  24  22  20  19  17  15  13
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............51  53  55  57  58  59  59  59  58
Dewpoint........40  39  37  36  34  32  30  29  29
RH..............66  59  51  45  40  36  33  32  33
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..10  9   9   9   11  11  11  11  10
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  20  20  20  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 2.4 4.0 5.5 6.2 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.5
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   NW
Transp wind spd.16  18  22  24  25  26  26  26  26
VRate kt-ft/1K..12  12  12  20  20  20  20  20  20
1700FT Mix T(F).54  53  55  57  58  59  59  59  58

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 27.
Max humidity........69 percent.
Dewpoint............26 decreasing to 21 late in the evening.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......5100-6000 ft AGL decreasing to 800-1600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 20 to 28 mph shifting to the north
                    around 18 mph after midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (5900-20000 knot-ft).
Stability class.....6.
1700FT Avg MIX T(F).50 decreasing to 41 early in the evening, then
                    increasing to 44 late in the evening decreasing
                    to 38 early in the morning.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........10  8   5   3   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   1
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............53  47  43  40  39  37  35  33  32  31  30  29
Dewpoint........28  27  26  25  24  22  21  21  21  21  20  20
RH..............38  45  51  55  54  54  56  61  63  66  66  69
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N
20 FT wind spd..10  9   9   8   8   8   8   8   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...6.0 5.1 3.9 2.8 2.1 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.26  28  28  26  24  22  20  18  18  18  18  18
VRate kt-ft/1K..20  20  20  20  20  20  6   6   6   6   6   6
1700FT Mix T(F).53  47  43  40  39  49  47  45  43  40  39  37

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 48.
Min humidity........26 percent.
Dewpoint............18 decreasing to 15 late in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 6 mph until late afternoon
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......700-2200 ft AGL increasing to 5200-5700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 9 to 18 mph decreasing to 3 to 8 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2100 knot-ft).
Stability class.....4.
1700FT Avg MIX T(F).38 increasing to 46 in the afternoon.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............28  27  27  31  36  39  43  45  47  48  48  47
Dewpoint........19  19  20  20  19  18  17  16  16  15  16  16
RH..............68  71  74  63  50  42  35  31  28  26  27  28
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   7   6   6   6   6   5   5   4   3
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10  5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 0.7 0.7 1.0 2.2 3.7 4.9 5.5 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.2
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.18  17  17  16  15  15  13  12  9   8   6   3
VRate kt-ft/1K..3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2
1700FT Mix T(F).36  35  35  34  36  39  43  45  47  48  48  47

$$
Forecaster...K.HATFIELD
Requested by...Kris Wilson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702742.0/TSA
.EMAIL kriswilson@fs.fed.us



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