Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Alaska-Pacific RFC

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AGAK78 PACR 302321
HMDACR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

THE MOOSE CREEK DAM IS EXPECTED TO OPERATE FOR ONE MORE DAY. HIGH
WATER LEVELS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CHENA BASIN. DOWN AT CHENA RIVER
NEAR CHENA LAKES THE STAGE REMAINS ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE. STAGES
ON UP STREAM AND OTHER RIVERS IN THE AREA LIKE THE SALCHA RIVER ARE
NOW FALLING BELOW ACTION STAGE. OVER ON THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER WE ARE
WATCHING HIGH WATER MOVE DOWN THE RIVER SYSTEM. WATER LEVELS AT
MCGRATH CRESTED ON SATURDAY AND NOW THE WAVE OF HIGH WATER IS MOVING
THROUGH LISKYS CROSSING... JUST ABOVE THE VILLAGE OF STONY RIVER.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORY OR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION.

FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CURRENTLY LOW OVER THE REST OF THE STATE.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW IN THE GULF BY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
CARVING OUT A TROUGH THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY BECOMES COMPLETE BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR IN THIS SOLUTION AS THE
MAIN ARCTIC LOW SLIPS SOUTH WHILE KEEPING STRONG GRADIENTS OVER THE
NORTHERN BERING AND DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS HEAVY AT
TIMES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR FORECAST OPERATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
GULF AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST. THE ARCTIC LOW
EVENTUALLY KICKS THE FIRST LOW INTO CANADA AND TAKES UP A SIMILIAR
POSITION IN THE GULF BY MONDAY. THIS HELPS TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK IN THE SOUTHEAST.

IN THE LONGER RANGE... THE RIDGE GETS SHOVED TO THE EAST BY THE
COMBINATION OF THE ARCTIC LOW SLIDING SOUTH AND ANOTHER LOW SOUTH OF
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA HEADING NORTH. THE RIDGE AXIS MAKES IT ONTO
THE WEST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING ALLOWING A SHORT DRYING TREND TO
BEGIN OVER THE WEST AND MAINLAND.

...PRECIPITATION...

SELECTED PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE 24 HOURS ENDING AT 4 AM TODAY:

LOCATION NAME                 PE TS   24 HR
======== ====                 == ==   =====
THOA2    THORNE BAY RAWS      PC RG :   3.25
ZMBA2    ZAREMBO ISLAND SOUTH PC RG :   2.38
PAPG     PETERSBURG           PP RZ :   1.81
HADA2    HAIDA RAWS           PC RG :   1.73
PASN     SAINT PAUL ISLAND    PP RZ :   1.14
PAYA     YAKUTAT              PP RZ :   1.06
SNPA2    SAINT PAUL ISLAND CR PP RG :   1.05
KKEA2    KAKE RAWS            PP RG :   0.82
SHLA2    SHELTER COVE RAWS    PC RG :   0.66
KSNA2    KING SALMON 42 SE    PP RG :   0.64
PAKW     KLAWOCK              PP RZ :   0.61
PAKT     KETCHIKAN            PP RZ :   0.61
MOGA2    MOTHER GOOSE LAKE RA PP RG :   0.57
PADU     DUTCH HARBOR         PP RZ :   0.53
CHTA2    CHATANIKA RAWS       PP RG :   0.51

...LONG RANGE...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE STATE... ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HOME PAGE FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

....................................................................

A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/GHMD.PHP

A GRAPHICAL SLIDE SHOW PRESENTATION OF HYDROMET ISSUES IS AVAILABLE
AT HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PRESENT
$$

ETH


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