Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Alaska-Pacific RFC

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AGAK78 PACR 232146
HMDACR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT SAT JUL 23 2016

...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

CONVECTIVE STORMS IN THE TANANA BASIN PRODUCED SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TOTALS LAST WEEK LEADING TO RISES ON MANY STREAMS DRAINING
THE YUKON-TANANA UPLANDS AS WELL AS THE TANANA RIVER.  RAIN HAS
CONTINUED INTO THIS WEEK AS WELL PUSHING WATER LEVELS HIGHER ONCE
AGAIN. A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHENA RIVER UPSTREAM OF
THE MOOSE CREEK DAM. THE FLOOD CONTROL PROJECT IS OPERATING AND
HELPING TO REGULATE THE FLOW ON THE CHENA RIVER. THE FLOOD ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THROUGH 245 PM AKDT SUNDAY THE 24TH.
PLEASE REFER TO THE ADVISORY FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

IT APPEARS THAT THE SUMMIT LAKE GLACIER DAMMED LAKE IS RELEASING
INTO THE SALMON RIVER NEAR HYDER. THE RIVER HAS RISEN DRAMATICALLY
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION.

LASTLY, WITH FORECAST RAINFALL OF AROUND AN INCH DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY, WATER LEVELS IN THE TAIYA BASIN  ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
MINOR FLOOD STATE. PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE IS CURRENTLY LOW.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS
DOMINATED BY A CLOSED LOW THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE GULF FROM THE
BERING SEA. THIS TRANSITION BROUGHT A WETTING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND EVEN THE SOUTHEAST, WHERE SOMEWHAT OF A
DROUGHT HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE MONTH OF JULY. THIS LOW CONTINUES
IS EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND ENTERS CANADA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE
THE THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEST AND
INTO THE SOUTHWEST BEARS SOME WATCHING. DECENT DYNAMICS WILL DRIVE
RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY.

IN THE LONGER RANGE, THE LOW IN THE WEST CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE
WESTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK HELPING TO CARVE OUT A LARGE TROUGH
OVER THE STATE BY TUESDAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY
STREAMING INTO THE SOUTHCENTRAL, NORTH GULF AND SOUTHEAST MEANS
WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

...PRECIPITATION...

SELECTED PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS ENDING AT 4 AM
TODAY:

LOCATION NAME                 PE TS   24 HR
======== ====                 == ==   =====
SAWA2    SPEEL ARM STATION    PC RZ :   2.31
PEDA2    PEDERSEN LAGOON      PC RG :   1.55
LLKA2    LONG LAKE SNOTEL     PC RM :   1.50
NUCA2    NUCHEK               PC RM :   1.40
PPSA2    POWDER PATCH STATION PC RZ :   1.38
MFBA2    MIDDLE FORK BRADLEY  PC RM :   1.30
WLCA2    WOLVERINE CREEK NR L PP RG :   1.22
KCKA2    KACHEMAK CREEK       PC RM :   1.10
PAWD     SEWARD               PP RZ :   1.09
SRFA2    STRAWBERRY REEF      PC RM :   1.00
PSJA2    PORT SAN JUAN        PC R2 :   1.00
ECEA2    EAGLECREST TOP CWOP  PP RZ :   0.97
DBWA2    DRY BAY GLACIER BAY  PP RG :   0.95
GNLA2    NUNATAK LOWER GLACIE PC RG :   0.92
RESA2    RESURRECTION RIVER A PP RG :   0.91
SLVA2    SILVIS POWERHOUSE    PP RZ :   0.90
LKCA2    LOWER KACHEMAK CREEK PC RM :   0.90
GCRA2    GROUSE CREEK DIVIDE  PC RM :   0.90
EYKA2    MT EYAK              PC RM :   0.90
LCRA2    LITTLE CHENA RIDGE S PP RG :   0.83
JSBA2    SUICIDE BASIN        PP RZ :   0.83
SHLA2    SHELTER COVE RAWS    PP RG :   0.81
NUKA2    NUKA GLACIER SNOTEL  PC RM :   0.80
GRVA2    GRANDVIEW SNOTEL     PC RM :   0.80
EXGA2    EXIT GLACIER         PC R2 :   0.79
HMEA2    HOMER RAWS           PP RG :   0.78
MHPA2    MITKOF HWY PETERSBUR PP RZ :   0.77
SNOA2    SNOW RIVER NR SEWARD PP RG :   0.75
SDIA2    SOUTH DOUGLAS        PC RZ :   0.73
PATO     PORTAGE GLACIER      PP RZ :   0.73
SRYA2    SITUK RIVER NR YAKUT PP RG :   0.70
PAYA     YAKUTAT              PP RZ :   0.70
HILA2    ANCHORAGE HILLSIDE   PC RM :   0.70
GNLA2    NUNATAK LOWER GLACIE PP RG :   0.70
EXGA2    EXIT GLACIER         PC RM :   0.70
ETBA2    EAGLECREST PTARMIGAN PP RZ :   0.68
CBHA2    CORDOVA BOAT HARBOR  PC RP :   0.68
GRVA2    GRANDVIEW SNOTEL     PC R2 :   0.67
HAYA2    HAYCOCK RAWS NR KOYU PP RG :   0.66
KSNA2    KING SALMON 42 SE    PP RG :   0.63
SILA2    CARIBOU HILLS        PP RG :   0.62
MNDA2    MENDENHALL LAKE LEVE PP RG :   0.62
URLA2    UPPER RUSSIAN LAKE R PP RG :   0.61
KNMA2    KENAI 29 ENE         PP RG :   0.61
PXKA2    PAXSON RAWS          PP RG :   0.60
PAMR     MERRILL FIELD        PP RZ :   0.60
KNMA2    KENAI 29 ENE         PC RG :   0.60
INPA2    INDIAN PASS SNOTEL   PC RM :   0.60
GGLA2    GATES GLACIER        PC RG :   0.60
CORA2    COOPER LAKE SNOTEL   PC RM :   0.60
PAJK     JUNEAU WFO           PP RZ :   0.59

...LONG RANGE...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST INCLUDING THE
PANHANDLE AND ALASKA PENINSULA.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE STATE EXCEPT MAYBE THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HOME PAGE FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

....................................................................

THIS TEXT PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED DAILY UNTIL FREEZEUP IN THE FALL. A
GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC/GRAPHICALHMD

$$

ETH



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