Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Alaska-Pacific RFC

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000
AGAK78 PACR 192300
HMDACR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT TUE SEP 19 2017

...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

THE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR KOBUK RIVER FROM KOBUK TO KIANA HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.  HIGH WATER WILL STILL BE MOVING DOWN THE LOWER KOBUK
RIVER... BUT ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

HIGH WATER IS STILL MOVING DOWN THE LOWER KOYUKUK RIVER... BUT
ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION....

THE 500 MB PATTERN THIS MORNING HAS A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
MAINLAND AND EASTERN SIBERIA... WITH NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES...
AS WELL AS A DEPARTING LOW WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE PANHANDLE.  SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES... AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION... WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MAINLAND TODAY AND TOMORROW.  THE DEPARTING LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEAST TODAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND INTO
WESTERN CANADA FROM A RIDGE THAT MOVES INTO THE GULF AHEAD OF A LOW
MOVING FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE ALEUTIANS.  THE FRONT FROM THIS
NEW LOW WILL BRING RAIN... POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...
BACK TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND ON THURSDAY.

...PRECIPITATION...

SELECTED 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ENDING AT 4 AM AKDT TODAY:

LOCATION NAME                 PE TS   24 HR
======== ====                 == ==   =====
PEDA2    PEDERSEN LAGOON      PC RG :  0.82
EVCA2    EIELSON VISITORS     PC RG :  0.78
RESA2    RESURRECTION RIVER   PC RG :  0.68
PAWD     SEWARD               PP RZ :  0.68
GROA2    GROUSE CREEK         PC RG :  0.68
SNIA2    SNIPE LAKE           PC RG :  0.62
ALXA2    ALEXANDER LAKE       PC R2 :  0.62
FOJA2    FOURTH OF JULY CREEK PC RP :  0.61
KMVA2    KENSINGTON VALLEY    PC RZ :  0.53
PAMA2    PAMICHTUK LAKE       PC RG :  0.53
PAKP     ANAKTUVUK PASS       PP RZ :  0.51
URLA2    UPPER RUSSIAN LAKE   PC RG :  0.50
STNA2    STONY STRIP RAWS     PC RG :  0.50
PAMA2    PAMICHTUK LAKE       PC RG :  0.48
TKVA2    TOKOSITNA VALLEY     PC R2 :  0.47
SNOA2    SNOW RIVER NR SEWARD PC RG :  0.47
KILA2    KILBUCK RAWS         PC RG :  0.46
HRDA2    HARDING ICE FIELD    PC RG :  0.46
BDVA2    BROADVIEW RAWS       PC RG :  0.45
ALSA2    PORT ALSWORTH RAWS   PC RG :  0.44
RUGA2    RUTH GLACIER RAWS    PC RG :  0.42
COOA2    KENAI RIVER          PC RG :  0.42
PWHA2    PORT ALSWORTH CRN    PP RG :  0.39
MRGA2    MARGUERITE CREEK     PC RG :  0.39
YESA2    MOUNT ALYESKA SNOTEL PC R2 :  0.38
PAGM     GAMBELL              PP RZ :  0.38
FWLA2    FAREWELL FLATS RAWS  PC RG :  0.38
PAIN     DENALI PARK          PP RZ :  0.37
PABE     BETHEL               PP RZ :  0.35
KSHA2    KANTISHNA            PC R2 :  0.35
BLSA2    BENTALIT LODGE       PC RG :  0.35
RABA2    ANCHORAGE RABBIT     PP RZ :  0.34
PAZK     EUREKA LODGE         PP RZ :  0.34
CHMA2    CHIMNEY LAKE NPS     PC RG :  0.31
RBTA2    RABBIT CREEK RAWS    PC RG :  0.30
RAMA2    RAM CREEK NPS        PC RG :  0.29
SRWA2    SALMON RIVER RAWS    PC RG :  0.28
PAEN     KENAI                PP RZ :  0.28
AUKA2    AUKE BAY             PP RZ :  0.28
PABT     BETTLES              PP RZ :  0.27
KAUA2    KALUICH RAWS         PC RG :  0.27
CHMA2    CHIMNEY LAKE NPS     PC RG :  0.27
WLCA2    WOLVERINE CREEK      PC RG :  0.26
SWNA2    SWANSON RIVER RAWS   PC RG :  0.26
KNLA2    KENAI LAKE RAWS      PC RG :  0.26
SDFA2    SOLDOTNA RAWS        PC RG :  0.25
GRAA2    GRANITE CREEK RAWS   PC RG :  0.25
FAFA2    PFAFF MINE           PC RG :  0.25

...LONG RANGE...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE STATE... WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND
OVER COASTAL REGIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND... OVER THE
AKPEN... AND OVER KODIAK ISLAND.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR WESTERN MAINLAND... AND
INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE MAINLAND AND OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HOME PAGE FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

....................................................................

THIS TEXT PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED DAILY UNTIL FREEZEUP IN THE FALL. A
GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC/GRAPHICALHMD

$$
ACL


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