Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS02 KWBC 080615
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
114 AM EST MON FEB 08 2016

VALID 12Z THU FEB 11 2016 - 12Z MON FEB 15 2016

...RECORD COLD POSSIBLE IN THE EAST THIS WEEKEND...

THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY NEXT
MONDAY, BUT NOT WITHOUT SOME EXTREME TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
CONUS. RECORD HIGHS ACROSS THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD THROUGH ABOUT FRIDAY BEFORE UPPER
TROUGHING PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, KNOCKING DOWN
TEMPERATURES. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE RECENTLY STRUGGLED
WITH HOW THIS TROUGH SPLITS IN THE EAST PACIFIC. RECENT GFS RUNS
HAVE DEPARTED FROM CONTINUITY AND THE ECMWF/ECENS CONSENSUS IN THE
WEST ENOUGH TO LIMIT ITS INCLUSION IN THE BLEND, THOUGH ITS
SOLUTION(S) STILL LIE WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD. EITHER WAY,
HEIGHTS WILL LOWER IN THE WEST LATER THIS WEEK AS A PACIFIC FRONT
PUSHES EASTWARD, SPREADING PRECIP THROUGH WA/OR AND INTO IDAHO AND
WESTERN MONTANA. BY NEXT SUNDAY/MONDAY, ASSUMING THIS SHORTWAVE
REACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS INSTEAD OF BEING DELAYED BY A DAY OR
TWO, GULF MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND HELP WRING OUT SOME SHOWERS.

IN THE EAST, THE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE LATER THIS WEEK WILL
HELP DRAW IN ANOTHER COLD UPPER LOW THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI-SUN. THIS WILL BRING IN VERY COLD
AIR FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST/NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC AND
WILL MAINTAIN LAKE-EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWS. GFS HAS TRENDED COLDER
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION FROM 24-36 HRS AGO, WHICH WAS ALONG WPC
CONTINUITY. RECORD COLD MINS ARE MOST LIKELY IN AREAS OF RECENT
SNOWFALL. SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES ABOVE ZERO ARE LIKELY INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY MORNING WHILE SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES BELOW
ZERO ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF NEW ENGLAND, NY, AND NW NJ WHICH IS
ABOUT 20-25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID-FEBRUARY.


FRACASSO

$$





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