Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 281200
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
800 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017

VALID 00Z WED MAR 29 2017 - 00Z WED APR 05 2017

WHILE THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD UP NEAR ALASKA AND TOWARDS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT IN AND
NEAR THE 50TH STATE.  THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER HAWAI`I FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK FEATURES LARGE-SCALE RIDGING IN THE HORSE LATITUDES,
WITH SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS REMAINING WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
ARCHIPELAGO.  EXPECT A TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEK, WHICH SHOULD PICK UP STEAM TOWARD THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOOK A TOUCH LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD, NEAR 1".  PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND CONFINED
TO MAINLY WINDWARD/MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.  MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A SURFACE LOW INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC
AND TRACKING TOWARDS THE ALASKAN PENINSULA. THE IMPLICATIONS FOR
HAWAII WILL BE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MARINE MONUMENT WHICH THEN
DEGENERATES INTO A SHEAR LINE, WHICH WILL BRING SOME INCREASED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE BUT OTHERWISE NOT SEEM TO IMPACT THE TRADES
ACROSS THE MAIN ISLANDS.

ROTH
$$





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