Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 211228
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
828 AM EDT SAT OCT 21 2017

VALID 00Z SUN OCT 22 2017 - 00Z SUN OCT 29 2017

...HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR NEXT WEEK...

AS TRADES CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDWARD/MAUKA
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON MONDAY, A TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DIG ALONG/PAST ~35N/165W AND WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW
NEAR 30N/160W EARLY TUESDAY. THE CONSENSUS MEANDERS THIS UPPER LOW
NORTH OF KAUAI ON MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AND THEN
NORTHEAST WED/THU. THIS WILL HELP DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW AROUND
32N/156W EARLY TUESDAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE
STARTING LATE MONDAY. LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL VEERS TO SOUTHEASTERLY
OR SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT (POTENTIALLY BREEZY 20-30 KTS) AND
AN INCREASE IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IS EXPECTED
WHICH SUPPORTS A HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVER ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN
ISLANDS. NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP DRY OUT THE REGION
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE WEEK. RAINFALL TOTALS MAY EXCEED SEVERAL
INCHES WITH NEAR TEN INCHES IN FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN.


FRACASSO


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