Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 251835
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
234 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

VALID MAY 25/1200 UTC THRU MAY 29/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH NEAR PACIFIC NORTHWEST THU-SAT
WEAKENING UPPER LOW IN NORTHEAST WED
KICKER SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHEAST WED/THU
WEAKENING UPPER LOW NEAR CENTRAL US/CANADIAN BORDER
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES.  WE
PREFER A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE TO DEAL WITH LINGERING DETAIL
ISSUES, WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS THU-SUN
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-CANADIAN COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 12Z CANADIAN SHIFTED A BIT NORTHEAST OF ITS PREVIOUS RUN, AND
HAS LEFT THE SAFE CONFINES OF THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE LOW SPREAD.
AS SUCH, PREFER THE GROUP OF GUIDANCE WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE
CLUSTERING, WHICH ARE THE 12Z NAM/12Z GFS/12Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF
SOLUTIONS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES BY MAINE FRIDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE 12Z NAM TAKES THIS SYSTEM MUCH CLOSER TO MAINE THAN THE
REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE 00Z WELL-CLUSTERED GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
SURFACE LOW POSITIONS BEST AGREES WITH A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z
ECMWF/12Z CANADIAN/12Z UKMET/12Z GFS, WHICH IS PREFERRED WITH
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


UPPER LOW DRIFTING E OF FLORIDA
CONVECTIVE LOW TRACKING N OF BAHAMAS FRI/SAT
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: ECMWF/NAM COMPROMISE BY DEFAULT
CONFIDENCE: BY DEFAULT/SEE NHC OUTLOOKS

PER COORDINATION WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC), AS WELL
AS THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE LOW CLUSTERING, A SOLUTION MOST SIMILAR
TO THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z NAM IS FAVORED.  SEE NHC TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS FOR MORE CONCERNING THIS CONVECTIVE LOW.



...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH
$$




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