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FXUS06 KWBC 281902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 03 - 07 2015

TODAY`S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION
PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY. THE DETERMINISTIC 0Z ECMWF AND 0Z GFS
AS WELL AS THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS PREDICT A
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS.
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, A TROUGH OR WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
PREDICTED NEAR THE GULF COAST REGION. OVER THE ALASKA SECTOR, A TROUGH IS
PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH, A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
PINCH OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE, ALLOWING A
TROUGH TO AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ALASKA. TODAY`S 500-HPA BLEND CHART IS WEIGHTED
MOST HEAVILY TOWARD THE 0Z ECMWF AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND BASED PRIMARILY
ON CONSIDERATIONS OF RECENT SKILL AND ON ANALOG CORRELATIONS, WHICH MEASURE HOW
CLOSELY THE FORECAST PATTERN MATCHES CASES THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST.

THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS UNDERNEATH PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE WEAKLY FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AHEAD OF A TROUGH PREDICTED NEAR THE GULF COAST REGION.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH PREDICTED NEAR THE GULF COAST REGION AND ALSO DUE
TO SOIL MOISTURE CONSIDERATIONS. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS CONSISTENT WITH BIAS
CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ALASKA
DUE TO PREDICTED RIDGING. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
NORTHEASTERN ALASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER NORTHWESTERN
CANADA.

PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH PREDICTED NEAR THE GULF COAST
REGION. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR PARTS OF
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS UNDERNEATH PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. THERE ARE
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS AHEAD OF A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS.
PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALSO FAVOR ABOVE
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FARTHER TO THE WEST
FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD TO PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN ALASKA DUE TO PREDICTED RIDGING.


TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF
TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 7, 10% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15%
OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY`S
12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR
MODEL AGREEMENT.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 05 - 11 2015

DURING THE WEEK TWO PERIOD, TODAY`S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS PREDICT MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE CONUS BY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS. HOWEVER, BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS OVER THE GULF COAST REGION
CORRESPONDING TO A PREDICTED TROUGH. A TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS
AND WEAK RIDGING IS PREDICTED FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA. ENSEMBLE
SPREAD IS MODERATE TO HIGH OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN INDICATING MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN RESOLVING INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES WITHIN THE OVERALL FLOW
PATTERN. TODAY`S WEEK TWO MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS WITH THE GREATEST WEIGHT GIVEN TO TODAY`S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CONUS
CONSISTENT WITH FORECAST LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS PREDICTED BY THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. HOWEVER, THERE ARE ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DUE,
IN PART, TO SOIL MOISTURE CONSIDERATIONS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR MOST OF SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AHEAD OF A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS.
HOWEVER, NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN ALASKA CONSISTENT WITH GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE.

NEAR TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS
CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES. THERE
ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS DUE TO A POTENTIAL TROUGH NEAR THE GULF COAST REGION. ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FARTHER TO THE NORTH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
CONSISTENT WITH GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS UNDERNEATH PREDICTED POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR NORTHERN ALASKA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH FORECAST RIDGING.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 15% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF
YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO FAIRLY HIGH MODEL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN.

FORECASTER: SCOTT HANDEL

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 18

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19780603 - 19890603 - 20040517 - 19900514 - 19690516


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19780602 - 19890603 - 20040516 - 19690517 - 20030607


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 03 - 07 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   N    A     WYOMING     N    A
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    N    A
NEW MEXICO  N    N     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    N    N
N TEXAS     B    B     S TEXAS     B    N     W TEXAS     N    N
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   N    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    N
VERMONT     A    B     NEW HAMP    A    B     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    B     CONN        A    B     RHODE IS    A    B
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    B     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  B    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  N    B
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    A    N



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 05 - 11 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    N    N
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    N    N     S DAKOTA    N    N
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    N    A
N TEXAS     B    N     S TEXAS     B    N     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   N    N     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   N    A     WISCONSIN   N    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI N    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  N    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  N    B
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    A    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$



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