Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS01 KWBC 040858
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
457 AM EDT FRI SEP 04 2015

VALID 12Z FRI SEP 04 2015 - 12Z SUN SEP 06 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...EXCESSIVE RAIN POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF MONTANA AND THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON SATURDAY...

...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE A TROUGH OVER THE
WEST AND A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE COUNTRY RATHER WARM AND DRY. NUMEROUS
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER - AFTERNOON HIGHS OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE WILL BE
COMMON, WITH ISOLATED 10 TO 15 DEGREES POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDWEST. A
NEARLY STATIONARY THERMAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH AS A
COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST IS RELATIVELY STRONG FOR THIS EARLY IN
AUTUMN. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EXTENDS FROM
THE HUDSON BAY, THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MULTIPLE WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLOW
THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY TURN SEVERE
-- AS HIGHLIGHTED BY A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE FOUR CORNERS, GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY
AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO ADVECT IN.

WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT, A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND
A  PERSISTENT FEED OF GULF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE, THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE PRIMED FOR HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND INTENSITY. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, WITH POSSIBLE
FLASH FLOODING, WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MONTANA, THE DAKOTAS AND
MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY; IOWA, MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY.

CAMPBELL

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$





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