Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS01 KWBC 071928
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
327 PM EDT TUE JUL 07 2015

VALID 00Z WED JUL 08 2015 - 00Z FRI JUL 10 2015

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THESE REGIONS. FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WESTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS FRONT IS ALREADY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO
WEDNESDAY. A VERY MOIST, TROPICAL AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THESE
AREAS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH MAY
MOVE ACROSS SOME OF THE SAME AREAS REPEATEDLY, RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN
SPREAD THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, BEFORE DISSIPATING BY EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

IN THE WESTERN U.S., AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FROM THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE
ONSHORE IN CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
EJECTING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST,
RESULTING IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE MID AND UPPER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND PRECIPITATION TO A MINIMUM.

RYAN


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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